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of historical perspective . For what occurred in 1977 and then again
in 1981 should have come as no surprise. The tendencies that culmi–
nated in two Likud electoral victories were visible, albeit on a
smaller scale, for several years. They were, however, dismissed as
marginal phenomena , and since Labor continued to win all elections
until 1977, they were conveniently pushed under the carpet.
Yet , as in so many other cases of political change and upheaval ,
the shift of the periphery to the center of the political scene was a
drawn-out process whose first expressions were hardly noticeable
and even less appreciated.
There seem to be two major structural developments which
have contributed to this realignment of Israel's political forces. The
first is a shift in the demographic balance between 'European'
(Ashkenazi) J ews and 'Oriental' (Sephardi) Jews in the country's
population. The second is the shift in the political agenda of Israeli
society since the Six Days War of 1967. In both cases, the first signs
became apparent some years ago: 1977 and 1981 only registered them
dramatically on the political map .
First, the demographic shift.
When Israel was established in 1948, its Jewish population
numbered about 700,000 people . Out of that number, about 85 %
were immigrants from European countries and their descendants ,
while about 15 % were immigrants from Muslim countries and their
descendants . Today, Israel's Jewish population is close to 3,500,000:
about 50% of these are 'Europeans,' and the other 50% are
'Orientals.
,*
Thus , the non-European population, which has been marginal
in Israeli political life in the first years after its establishment, has
now reached the 50% mark of Israel's Jewish population . Most of
this increase is due to immigration: but because non-European fami–
lies are generally larger than European ones, the percentage of non–
Europeans continues to rise even more among the younger age
cohorts in the country. Insofar as this influx of non-European Jews
has caught the attention of the media and public opinion outside of
Israel , this has generally focused on the socio-economic dimensions
'There is, of cou rse , also the Arab population within Israel's pre-1967 borders,
which participates in parliamentary elections and makes up between 12-14% of the
electorate: but the shifts in its votin g patterns would require a separa te discussion,
which is outside the scope of these comments.
