THE COLD WAR AND THE WEST
79
come in favor of the lower classes.
As
a result, capitalism can no
longer be relied upon to dig its own grave.
At the same time, experience throws new light on the historical
role of Communism. Marx, regarding Communism as the climax of
the modernization process, expected that it would come about first
in the most developed nations. On the contrary, it has come about
in nations in the early phases of development, like Russia and China;
and it has appealed to such nations precisely because they see it
as an instrument of rapid and effective modernization. Instead
of being the culmination of the modernization effort, as Marx con–
tended, Communism would seem to be a form of social organization
to which states aspiring to development have resorted in the hope
that it will shorten the modernization process. We do not know what
would happen in a fully developed society; but,
if
Communism should
survive in its present form, it would be because of the efficiency of
its apparatus of terror, not because it is the inevitable expression of
the institutions of affluence.
History thus shows plainly that Communism is
not
the wave of
the future,
not
the form of social organization toward which all
societies are irresistibly evolving. Rather Communism is a phenomenon
of the transition from stagnation to development, a 'disease' (in
Rostow's phrase) of the modernization process. Democratic, regulated
capitalism-the mixed society-will be far more capable of coping
with the long-term consequences of modernization.
2. Should the United States identify itself to a greater degree
with the proponents of social reform?
In most of the undeveloped
world, the choice is no longer between the
status quo
and change.
The imperatives of modernization are irresistible. The choice is be–
tween democratic evolution and Communist revolution. Other things
being equal, the national interest of the United States lies in support–
ing those forces which work for modernization along lines which lay
the foundations for democracy. (There are special cases, of course,
where in the short run the United States may have to aid regressive
regimes against even more serious threats to democracy, as
it
aided
the Soviet Union during the Second World War.) The Kennedy
administration-in Latin America, for example-is reversing past
policies and working to support and strengthen the forces of demo–
cratic evolution.
