London Letter
DEAR EDITORS,
I have spent the last three months in France and Germany, but I
must devote this letter to British affairs, because if I touch directly on
anything I saw abroad I shall have to submit the letter to SHAEF cen–
sorship.
The forthcoming general election is causing a fair amount of
excitement, and many Labor Party supporters seem honestly confident
that their party will win. Churchill is considered to have decided on an
early election because this will probably mean a low poll. Millions of
soldiers and others will still be away from home and, though not strictly
speaking disenfranchised (the soldiers can vote by proxy, for instance),
out of touch with their local political organizations. The votes lost in
this way will be mostly potential Labor votes. I have predicted all along
that the Conservatives will win by a small majority, and I still stick to
this, though not quite so confidently as before, because the tide is ob–
viously running very strongly in the other direction. It is even conceivable
that Labor may win the election against the will of its leaders. Any gov–
ernment taking office now is in for an uncomfortable time, and a Left
government especially so. Wartime controls will have to be continued
and even tightened up, and demobilization will inevitably be slower than
the general public expects. Then there is the coal problem, which is
simply not soluble until the mines have been nationalized and then re–
novated by a process that will take several years. For the time being
any government, of whatever color, will be obliged both to coerce the
miners and to let the public shiver through the winter. There is also
the impending show-down with Russia, which the people at the top
of the Labor Party no doubt realize to be unavoidable, but which public
opinion has not been prepared for. And above all there is India. The
Conservatives might be able to stave off an Indian settlement for one
more term of office, but a government calling itself Socialist could
hardly attempt to do so, while at the same time it
is
very unlikely that
Attlee, Morrison and the rest of them can make any offer that the In–
dian Nationalists would accept. Some people consider that a government
taking office just at this moment does not risk much unpopularity, be–
cause the security and semi-prosperity produced by the war will still be
operative, and that the really difficult time lies about two years ahead,
when there will be full demobilization with consequent unemployment
and a calamitous housing shortage. Nevertheless I believe that the fear
