Hare Writes Op-Ed on Iran War Signaling Crises in Global Security Frameworks
In an opinion piece for The Jerusalem Post titled “The Iran war exposed the weakness of old strategic assumptions,” Paul Webster Hare, Master Lecturer at the Pardee School and former British ambassador to Cuba, reflects on how the recent Iran war has fundamentally challenged long-held assumptions about security, deterrence, and diplomacy in the Middle East.
Drawing on his experience in diplomacy and nonproliferation, Hare argues that expectations surrounding U.S. military strength, regional alliances, and advanced defense systems proved far less reliable than many policymakers had believed.
The vulnerability of U.S. bases and the limited deterrent effect of sophisticated weaponry revealed a stark mismatch between strategic expectations and operational realities, leading Hare to conclude that “whatever the outcome of the Iran war, many old assumptions from those affected will have been jettisoned.”
Hare also highlights the erosion of multilateral frameworks that once underpinned global security, pointing to the legacy of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as an example of now-fractured cooperation. He underscores widening divisions among major powers, shifting alliances in the Gulf, and the growing role of unconventional tools such as cryptocurrency in weakening sanctions regimes.
At the same time, anticipated geopolitical alignments, such as closer ties between Gulf states and Israel, have failed to materialize, reflecting increased regional complexity and political constraints.
Ultimately, Hare contends that the implications of the war extend far beyond the immediate conflict, signaling deeper instability in both regional and global systems. As he writes, “the Nuclear Non-Proliferation regime is in crisis” and traditional diplomatic pathways are faltering, he suggests that policymakers must urgently reassess the assumptions that have long guided international relations in the Middle East.
The full op-ed can be read here.
Paul Webster Hare is a master lecturer at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies. He served as British Ambassador to Cuba from 2001 to 2004 and also represented the U.K. to the European Union in Brussels, New York, Portugal, and Venezuela as deputy head of mission. Hare has extensively written about Cuba for renowned news outlets including The Financial Times, The Atlantic, Newsweek, and The Huffington Post. He is also the co-editor of the Palgrave Handbook of Diplomatic Reform and Innovation, which analyzes current practices of diplomacy and proposes practical solutions to improve diplomatic outcomes.