The Remote Revolution: Erik Lin-Greenberg Discusses Drones and Modern Statecraft at Pardee School Event
Written by Allegra Vercesi, Pardee School of Global Studies, Dean’s Ambassador (BAIR ‘28)
The Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies hosted Dr. Erik Lin-Greenberg of MIT on Thursday, February 26, 2026, as part of its Global Security Initiative. Dr. Lin-Greenberg, Associate Professor of Political Science, delivered a talk titled The Remote Revolution: Drones and Modern Statecraft.
In his presentation, Dr. Lin-Greenberg challenged the conventional view that drones make war more likely to escalate. While critics argue that unmanned systems lower the costs of using force and therefore increase the risk of crises, his research suggests a more complex dynamic. He introduced two central mechanisms: the escalation control effect and the moral hazard effect.
The escalation control effect holds that incidents involving drones are less likely to spiral into broader wars. Because unmanned systems do not place pilots in harm’s way, their loss does not trigger the same domestic pressure for retaliation. Dr. Lin-Greenberg described this as a “restrained retaliation” logic, noting that there is a critical distinction between losing a machine and losing service members. This dynamic, he argued, can dampen escalation during international crises.
At the same time, drones produce a moral hazard effect. By reducing the risks and political costs of military action, they lower the threshold for initiating confrontations. Leaders may be more willing to deploy force when personnel are not directly endangered, resulting in more frequent–but generally lower-intensity–conflicts.
To evaluate these claims, Dr. Lin Greenberg conducts experimental wargames with senior military officers. In scenarios where a drone was shot down, none of the participating teams proposed retaliatory strikes. In parallel simulations involving manned aircraft, every team chose retaliation. As one participant explained, “If they shot our service members, we retaliate.” The findings highlight how the presence of personnel fundamentally shapes escalation decisions.
During the Q&A, students and faculty engaged Dr. Lin-Greenberg on the broader implications of his findings for contemporary conflicts and emerging technologies. Questions focused on the growing role of autonomous systems and artificial intelligence in military decision-making, and whether increasing automation might alter how states perceive risk and responsibility. Others asked whether the presence of drones in ongoing flashpoints, such as U.S.-Iran tensions, changes how leaders assess resolve and retaliation. The discussion highlighted both the strategic flexibility drones provide and the new uncertainties introduced as these technologies proliferate across state and non-state actors alike.
Dr. Lin-Greenberg concluded that drones have added new “rungs” to the escalation ladder, expanding states’ policy menu of options and reshaping how modern statecraft operates in an era of remote warfare.
You can learn more about the Global Security Initiative and see additional upcoming events here.