Mako Analyzes U.S.–Iraq Tensions as Maliki Nomination Sparks Political Crisis
In a new article published by War on the Rocks on February 27, 2026 titled Why Trump’s Criticism of Maliki Strengthens Him in Iraq, Professor Shamiran Mako and her co-author Yasir Kuoti, PhD student of political science, offered insight into rising tensions in Iraq following the Coordination Framework’s decision to nominate former Prime Minister Nouri al‑Maliki, a move that has triggered public backlash after President Donald Trump’s sharp objection to Maliki’s return. The nomination, Mako notes, has already reshaped Iraq’s political landscape. As the article explains, rather than weakening Maliki, Trump’s public intervention “galvanized Shiite political actors under the banner of national sovereignty — including those who do not typically support him.”
Maliki’s reemergence has raised alarms across Iraq’s political spectrum. Once forced out in 2014 amid institutional collapse and the fall of Mosul, he remains widely viewed as a polarizing figure. The article highlights that his nomination “violates the Coordination Framework’s own criteria,” since Maliki lacks internal consensus, broad communal support, or significant international backing.
Communities across Iraq, particularly Sunni Arab blocs, have publicly rejected the choice. As noted, the National Political Council declared it would “neither vote for Maliki nor participate in any government he leads.” Mako emphasized that this moment reveals deeper issues within Iraq’s political system, where major decisions are often made “behind closed doors” rather than through transparent parliamentary negotiations. This elite‑driven process creates a system in which elections risk becoming “rituals, rather than mechanisms for change or accountability.”
Compounding the crisis is what the article describes as a “clear breakdown in communication between Washington and Baghdad,” worsened by inconsistent diplomatic engagement and public messaging. Trump’s remarks were widely seen as external interference, intensifying nationalist rhetoric and prompting the Coordination Framework to “close ranks and reaffirm its earlier decision.”
The consequences of escalation are severe. Any U.S. punitive measures (such as sanctions, cuts to dollar access, or security cooperation) could destabilize Iraq’s fragile economy and undermine counter‑terrorism operations. As the article warns, Iraq’s financial system is so dependent on U.S.-controlled oil revenue flows that its economy “could unravel within days.”
Despite the tense political environment, the article identifies several off‑ramps. But the most constructive option, Mako notes, lies not in public confrontation but in renewed, long‑term engagement. According to the authors, Washington should invest in diplomacy, capacity‑building, and sustained partnership, viewing Iraq as a “strategic partner” whose stability is essential for the region. Such an approach “far better serves Washington’s goal of weakening Iranian influence, while avoiding costly escalation,” and strengthens Iraqi sovereignty rather than undermining it.
The full article can be read here.
Shamiran Mako is an assistant professor of international relations and political science at the Pardee School of Global Studies. Her scholarship dives deep into the historical and contemporary drivers of inter- and intra-state conflicts that engender weak and fragile states across the Middle East and North Africa region. She is the author of the upcoming book Structuring Exclusion: Institutions, Grievances, and Ethnic State Capture in Iraq (Oxford University Press, 2025) and After the Uprisings: Progress and Stagnation in the Middle East and North Africa, with Valentine Moghadam (Cambridge University Press, 2021). To read more about her work and accomplishments, visit her faculty profile.