Hare’s View on Enduring Chavismo Under Trump’s Venezuela Gamble
Master Lecturer Paul Webster Hare penned a new article for the The Conversation, titled Chavismo has adapted before – but can Venezuela’s leftist ideology become US friendly and survive?, covering how the Trump administration’s January 2026 operation to remove Nicolás Maduro from power marked a dramatic turning point in U.S.–Venezuela relations—but not the clean break many expected. Rather than pushing for full regime change or installing opposition leader María Corina Machado, President Trump allowed Maduro’s longtime deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, to assume control. According to Hare, this decision signals a new phase of Chavismo rather than its demise. “Trump is betting that a reformed Chavismo can uniquely provide the stability that is required to rebuild the Venezuelan oil industry,” Hare observes, suggesting that economic pragmatism has trumped ideological hostility.
Hare traces how the left-wing populist political ideology, “Chavismo,” has evolved since Hugo Chávez first came to power in 1998, shifting from an initially democratic socialist project into what critics describe as “competitive authoritarianism.” Over time—especially after a failed 2002 coup attempt—Chávez centralized authority, weakened institutions, and increasingly aligned with Cuba. Later under Maduro, the system grew more repressive as falling oil revenues pushed the government toward corruption and illicit financing. Rodríguez, though deeply rooted in this political tradition, now appears willing to strike deals with Washington, particularly by reopening Venezuela’s oil sector to foreign investment. As Hare notes, “She has learned that Trump appears more interested in oil than in restoring democracy.”
Whether this pragmatic bargain can last remains uncertain. Hare warns that Rodríguez is surrounded by many of the same Chavista figures responsible for years of electoral manipulation and repression. Key questions remain: Will she commit to free elections? Will the paramilitary “colectivos” be dismantled? Can the military be returned to a neutral national institution? Chavismo has repeatedly proven resilient and adaptable, but its future under U.S. tutelage is a gamble—both for Venezuela and for Trump, especially among Latin American voters in Florida who have long opposed any accommodation with socialist regimes.
The full article can be read here.
Paul Webster Hare is a master lecturer at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies. He served as British Ambassador to Cuba from 2001 to 2004 and also represented the U.K. to the European Union in Brussels, New York, Portugal, and Venezuela as deputy head of mission. Hare has extensively written about Cuba for renowned news outlets including The Financial Times, The Atlantic, Newsweek, and The Huffington Post. He is also the co-editor of the Palgrave Handbook of Diplomatic Reform and Innovation, which analyzes current practices of diplomacy and proposes practical solutions to improve diplomatic outcomes.