Heine on the “Unpredictable” Future the U.S. Intervention of Venezuela Holds
In his analysis titled ‘Running Venezuela’? Hegemony is one thing, dominance is another published by Responsible Statecraft on Jan. 6, 2026, Ambassador Jorge Heine argues that the United States’ bombing of Caracas, the port of La Guaira, and surrounding regions—along with the forcible removal of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife—marks a historic escalation in U.S.–Latin American relations. He notes that this is “the first U.S. military attack on the South American mainland in 200 years,” a threshold-crossing moment whose consequences, he warns, are “unpredictable.”
Heine situates the strikes within a broader campaign of military pressure that has unfolded over several months, including a major U.S. naval buildup in the Caribbean, the seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers, and repeated attacks on alleged drug-trafficking vessels. Despite official claims, Heine emphasizes that “Venezuela does not represent a national security danger to the United States in any way, shape or form,” and argues that Washington has failed to provide credible evidence for its drug-smuggling accusations.
In particular, Heine challenges the administration’s focus on fentanyl, writing that “no boat carrying fentanyl has ever been detained in the Caribbean,” and that Venezuela is not a major drug-producing country. He likens this rationale to past interventions, concluding that “fentanyl is to the attack on Venezuela what the non-existent Weapons of Mass Destruction were to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.”
Looking ahead, Heine raises profound concerns about the broader implications for the region. The operation, he argues, is not an isolated incident but part of a wider shift articulated through the revival of the Monroe Doctrine and the newly declared “Trump Corollary,” asserting U.S. preeminence in the hemisphere. Attempting to reimpose dominance through force in the 21st century, Heine concludes, is not only unrealistic but risks long-term instability: the idea that the United States can “recreate the days of empire and colonialism” in Latin America would strike many as “not just outlandish but as doomed to failure.”
The full article can be read here.
A former research professor at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, Jorge Heine is a diplomat, international relations scholar, and lawyer. He is currently a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute. He has served as an ambassador of Chile to China, India, and South Africa. Heine has written over fifteen books, including The Non-Aligned World: Striking Out in an Era of Great Power Competition (2025), which provides insights on how the Global South can navigate the changing diplomatic landscape amid the U.S.-China rivalry.