Heine on Chile’s Rightward Turn and the Risks of Choosing Sides
In a reflection for Responsible Statecraft titled Trump shouldn’t overplay his hand with Chile’s new president, Ambassador Jorge Heine examines the regional and international implications of José Antonio Kast’s election as Chile’s next president. He argues that while his victory aligns neatly with the Trump administration’s hemispheric agenda, it presents significant challenges for Chile’s long-standing foreign policy balance.
Heine notes that Kast’s win—marked by a historically large voter outcome and his open support for the Pinochet era—confirms the rise of hard-right leaders across Latin America who see themselves as allies of the MAGA movement in the United States. This helps explain the unusually enthusiastic response from Washington, which views Chile as a bellwether for broader political trends in the region.
Yet Heine cautions that Kast will face serious constraints at home, including the absence of a congressional majority and a political style ill-suited to coalition-building. More importantly, he argues, Chile’s greatest test under Kast may lie in foreign policy rather than domestic politics.
Chile’s economic success, Heine emphasizes, rests on a carefully managed balance between its deep ties with both the United States and China. As the most China-integrated economy in Latin America—while also maintaining exceptionally close relations with Washington—Chile has prospered by avoiding exclusive alignment with either power.
The main foreign policy challenge for a Kast presidency will be to maintain the balanced and equidistant relationship that Chile has so successfully managed between Washington and Beijing over many decades now.
Heine warns that pressure from Washington to force a sharper geopolitical alignment would provoke strong resistance within Chile, particularly from the business community. At the same time, he argues that a deliberate downgrading of relations with China to curry favor with the Trump administration would be economically self-defeating.
Ultimately, Heine concludes that while elections bring change, Chile’s national interest still lies in strategic pragmatism—maintaining equilibrium between global powers rather than choosing sides in an increasingly polarized international order.
The full article can be read here.
A former research professor at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, Jorge Heine is a diplomat, international relations scholar, and lawyer. He has served as an ambassador of Chile to China, India, and South Africa. Heine has written over fifteen books, including The Non-Aligned World: Striking Out in an Era of Great Power Competition (2025), which provides insights on how the Global South can navigate the changing diplomatic landscape amid the U.S.-China rivalry.