Heine Examines Potential Impacts of Trump Victory on Latin America
Ambassador Jorge Heine, Research Professor at Boston University’s Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, has authored an analysis on Project Syndicate titled “What a Trump Victory Would Mean for Latin America,” published on September 5, 2024.
In the article, Heine examines the potential consequences of a Donald Trump victory in the 2024 US presidential election for Latin America. He argues that the implications would be dire, particularly given the region’s ongoing struggle to recover from its deepest economic downturn in 120 years.
Heine highlights several key areas of concern, including Trump’s promises of mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, potential trade disruptions due to protectionist policies, and the possibility of increased sanctions on countries like Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. He notes that Trump’s proposed 10% tariff on all imported goods could significantly affect countries with free-trade agreements with the US, such as Chile, Colombia, Peru, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico.
The diplomat warns that Latin Americans must prepare for the political earthquake that may be coming in 2025 if Trump were to win the election. He argues that Trump’s policies could exacerbate the economic conditions that drive migration northward, creating a cycle of increased migration pressure and harsher US policies.
Heine expresses serious concerns about the potential impact on Latin America’s already sluggish economic growth. He notes that regional GDP projections for the current year indicate the slowest growth of any world region except Europe, at 1.8%.
Regarding the broader implications, Heine suggests that a Trump presidency could accelerate the decline of the International Liberal Order, particularly in terms of free trade. He points out the irony that China has become the world’s biggest champion of free trade, while Trump proposes significant tariffs on imports.
Heine advises that countries in Latin America should be prepared to navigate an increasingly complex international system, potentially needing to balance relationships with both the US and China in a more polarized global environment.
The article in full can be accessed on Project Syndicate here.