Energy Security, Climate Change, and the Future of Ukraine Reconstruction
Recovery opportunities for Ukraine to advance its clean energy goals
By Darrick Evensen and Benjamin Sovacool (Boston University Institute for Global Sustainability); Nate Dalton and Kate Glebova (Sora Union)
October 2022
In Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, numerous reports, expert opinions, and commentaries have been written on Ukraine’s approaches to recovery and reconstruction post-war. This whitepaper synthesizes key findings from these publications, particularly in the area of energy infrastructure. The authors draw on these insights to offer suggestions for consideration as Ukraine further researches and hones its plans for a climate-resilient recovery.
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Key Observations
- Many recovery cost estimates exist, generally in the range of $200 billion to $1 trillion.
- $349 billion (for reconstruction and recovery) and $750 billion (including costs for modernization of assets not damaged) are two core, reputable estimates.
- Housing and transportation infrastructure account for by far the largest amount of current damage.
- Energy infrastructure itself sustained relatively little damage, compared to the sectors above, but massive investments of over $200 billion are required to finance a new approach to energy production, consumption, and security in the country.
- The greatest opportunity for change in energy systems likely lies in areas that have been most severely disrupted from Russia’s war against Ukraine. This includes geographic regions and certain economic sectors and sub-sectors.
- A substantial shift to renewables is envisioned, with dramatic growth in wind and solar in Ukraine’s southern regions, and increased potential for biomass production.
- Nuclear power will still be needed and is expected to grow in capacity over the next decade.
- Inefficient district heating and an old and poorly insulated housing stock are key challenges in Ukraine. Massive investments in energy efficiency and new approaches to heating – primarily heat pumps – are planned in response to these concerns.
- Ukraine sees a major role for hydrogen in its new energy system, although some concerns exist around the relative value and efficiency of such systems.
- Ukraine’s big decisions going forward will be about what energy efficiency measures are promoted and adopted; the relative roles of nuclear, wind, solar, heat pumps, biofuels, and hydrogen; and where and when to make each of these shifts.