{"id":28616,"date":"2024-08-21T10:53:12","date_gmt":"2024-08-21T14:53:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/?p=28616"},"modified":"2025-08-12T16:34:19","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T20:34:19","slug":"relative-risk-and-the-rate-of-return-chinese-loans-to-africa-database-2000-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/2024\/08\/21\/relative-risk-and-the-rate-of-return-chinese-loans-to-africa-database-2000-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Relative Risk and the Rate of Return: Chinese Loans to Africa Database, 2000-2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment28701\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment28701\" style=\"width: 710px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/ovinuchi-ejiohuo-OxesnxkySD0-unsplash.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/ovinuchi-ejiohuo-OxesnxkySD0-unsplash-636x424.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"467\" class=\"wp-image-28701\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/ovinuchi-ejiohuo-OxesnxkySD0-unsplash-636x424.jpg 636w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/ovinuchi-ejiohuo-OxesnxkySD0-unsplash-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/ovinuchi-ejiohuo-OxesnxkySD0-unsplash-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/ovinuchi-ejiohuo-OxesnxkySD0-unsplash-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/ovinuchi-ejiohuo-OxesnxkySD0-unsplash-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment28701\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Enugu, Nigeria. Photo by Ovinuchi Ejiohuo via Unsplash.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A new update to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/chinese-loans-to-africa-database\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>Chinese Loans to Africa (CLA) Database<\/strong><\/a>, managed by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center, estimates that from 2000-2023, Chinese lenders provided 1,306 loans amounting to $182.28 billion to 49 African governments and seven regional borrowers.<\/p>\n<p>In 2023, Chinese lenders issued 13 new commitments with a value of $4.61 billion to eight countries and two regional financial institutions. This represents the first time the annual loan amount to Africa has risen since 2016 but is far below the early years of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in which cumulative commitments surpassed $10 billion annually.<\/p>\n<p>The CLA Database is an interactive data project tracking loan commitments from Chinese development finance institutions (DFIs), commercial banks, government entities and companies to African governments, state-owned enterprises and regional multilateral institutions.<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/GCI-PB-23-CLA-2024-FIN.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong><em>new policy brief<\/em><\/strong><\/a> analyzes the state of Chinese lending to Africa ahead of the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, taking place in Beijing from September 4-6, 2024.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Main findings:<\/strong><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Total loans: <\/strong>Between 2000-2023, Chinese lenders provided 1,306 loans worth a combined $182.28 billion to 49 African countries and seven regional borrowers. During this time, Chinese loans were channeled primarily to Africa\u2019s energy sector ($62.72 billion), transportation ($52.65 billion), information and communication technology ($15.67 billion), and the financial sector ($11.98 billion).<\/li>\n<li><strong>New loans:<\/strong> In 2023, Chinese lenders issued 13 new commitments with a value of $4.61 billion to eight African countries and two regional financial institutions. This represents the largest volume of lending since 2019, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, but is far below the early BRI years (2013-2018), in which cumulative commitments surpassed $10 billion annually.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Figure 1: Chinese Loans to Africa, 2000-2023<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment28704\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment28704\" style=\"width: 646px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-1-636x394.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"636\" height=\"394\" class=\"wp-image-28704 size-medium\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-1-636x394.jpg 636w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-1-1024x634.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-1-768x476.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-1-1536x951.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-1-2048x1269.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 636px) 100vw, 636px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment28704\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Chinese Loans to Africa Database, Boston University Global Development Policy Center, 2024.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Top five borrowers<\/strong>: China\u2019s top five loan recipients between 2000-2023 were Angola, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Figure 7: Top Five African Borrowers from China, 2000-2023<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment28707\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment28707\" style=\"width: 646px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-7.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-7-636x369.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"636\" height=\"369\" class=\"wp-image-28707 size-medium\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-7-636x369.jpg 636w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-7-1024x594.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-7-768x445.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-7-1536x891.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-7-2048x1188.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 636px) 100vw, 636px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment28707\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Chinese Loans to Africa Database, Boston University Global Development Policy Center, 2024.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Financing the financial sector<\/strong>: The volume of financing channeled to Africa\u2019s financial sector in 2023 is unique when compared to previous years. More than half the total combined loan amount for 2023, $2.59 billion, was provided to African multilateral banks, as well as nationally owned banks in Egypt. From 2000-2022, a mere 5.29 percent of Chinese loans to Africa were directed to the continent\u2019s financial sector. Chinese lenders\u2019 focus on African financial institutions most likely represents a risk mitigation strategy that avoids exposure to African countries\u2019 debt challenges.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Figure 5: Financial Sector Lending Breakdown, 2000-2023<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment28708\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment28708\" style=\"width: 660px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-5.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-5-e1724783710742-636x402.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"411\" class=\"wp-image-28708\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-5-e1724783710742-636x402.jpeg 636w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-5-e1724783710742-1024x647.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-5-e1724783710742-768x485.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-5-e1724783710742-1536x970.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-5-e1724783710742-2048x1293.jpeg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment28708\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Chinese Loans to Africa Database, Boston University Global Development Policy Center, 2024.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Energy loans are back<\/strong>: After a two-year hiatus in energy lending between 2021-2022, Chinese lenders committed loans worth a combined $501.98 million to three renewable energy projects in Africa. The energy types supported (solar and hydropower) and comparatively modest size of these loans is in line with the recent Chinese pivot to the \u201csmall is beautiful\u201d approach to supporting projects with beneficial environmental and social outcomes. Support for these projects also provides further evidence of China\u2019s intention to honor Xi Jinping\u2019s 2021 pledge to cease financing new coal-fired power plants abroad and ramp up funding for renewable energy projects instead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p1\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Figure 6: Power Generation Chinese Loan Commitments to Africa by Energy Source, 2000-2023<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment28705\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment28705\" style=\"width: 646px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-6.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-6-636x394.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"636\" height=\"394\" class=\"wp-image-28705 size-medium\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-6-636x394.jpg 636w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-6-1024x634.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-6-768x475.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-6-1536x950.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/Figure-6-2048x1267.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 636px) 100vw, 636px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment28705\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Chinese Loans to Africa Database, Boston University Global Development Policy Center, 2024.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Managing risk among strategic relationships<\/strong>: China\u2019s desire to maintain relationships with longtime borrowers is exposing it to considerable risks. Despite growing risk aversion among Chinese lenders, Chinese development finance institutions in 2023 issued loans to three of its longtime borrowers all ailing from economic woes: Angola, Egypt and Nigeria. Rather than shifting lending to the strongest and healthiest economies on the continent, China is prioritizing reinvesting in existing strategic relationships.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Going forward, China will likely continue to pursue a bifurcated strategy of risk-averse experiments with borrowers that received fewer loans in past years and decidedly riskier forms of engagement with its longtime partners. Additionally, the size of future individual loans is expected to shrink, even in countries that have a long history of engagement with China, as the pre-pandemic pipeline of big-ticket projects empties out.<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/chinese-loans-to-africa-database\/\" class=\"button\">Explore the Data<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/2024\/09\/18\/webinar-summary-chinese-loans-to-africa-database-data-update-2000-2023\/\" class=\"button\">Watch the Webinar<\/a>\n<a href=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/GCI-PB-23-CLA-2024-FIN.pdf\" class=\"button\">Read the Policy Brief<\/a>\n<a href=\"\/gdp\/files\/2024\/08\/GCI-PB-23-CLA-2024-Appendix-FIN.pdf\" class=\"button\">Read the Appendix<\/a>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp-cn\/2024\/08\/28\/%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e9%80%9f%e9%80%92%ef%bd%9c%e7%9b%b8%e5%af%b9%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%92%8c%e5%9b%9e%e6%8a%a5%e7%8e%87%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e5%af%b9%e9%9d%9e%e6%b4%b2%e8%b4%b7%e6%ac%be%e6%95%b0\/\" class=\"button\">\u9605\u8bfb\u653f\u7b56\u7b80\u62a5<\/a>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new update to the Chinese Loans to Africa (CLA) Database, managed by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center, estimates that from 2000-2023, Chinese lenders provided 1,306 loans amounting to $182.28 billion to 49 African governments and seven regional borrowers. In 2023, Chinese lenders issued 13 new commitments with a value of $4.61 billion [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18327,"featured_media":28701,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1151,73,156,72,106,104,1],"tags":[4065,403,2018,2028,3496,868,741,3809,2025,1614,4443,2019,3750,576,4357,4358,995,2026,2024,856,3748,4444,1208,4442,3749],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28616"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18327"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28616"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28616\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31027,"href":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28616\/revisions\/31027"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28701"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bu.edu\/gdp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}