Event Highlights: Europe’s Crisis and the Challenge of Its Peripheries
On Thursday, March 24, under the auspices of our new EU Futures project, we launched a new series of conversations on issues pertinent to the future of democracy in the US and Europe entitled “Interferences.” Our speakers were Jacques Rupnik, Director of Research at the Centre de Recherches Internationale (CERI) at Sciences Po, France, where he also serves as Professor of Political Science, and Jolyon Howorth, Visiting Professor of Political Science, Yale University.
Rupnik is also a Visiting Professor at the College of Europe in Bruges, Belgium. Beyond academia, he has held numerous positions advising on Eastern and Southeastern Europe. During the Balkans wars of the 1990’s, he was Executive Director of the International Commission for the Balkans and drafted its report Unfinished Peace. As member of the Independent International Commission on Kosovo, he co-drafted The Kosovo Report. Rupnik was an advisor to Vaclav Havel, former President of the Czech Republic. he has most recently published: Dernier ouvrage: 1989 as a Political World Event: democracy, Europe and the new international system in the age of globalization (Routledge, 2014) and Géopolitique de la démocratisation, l’Europe et ses voisinages (Presses de Sciences Po, 2014).
Howorth is Jean Monnet Professor of European Politics ad personam and Emeritus Professor of European Studies at the University of Bath (UK). He has published extensively in the field of European politics and history, especially security and defense policy and transatlantic relations. Recent books include: Security and Defence Policy in the European Union (Palgrave, 2nd edition 2014); Defending Europe: the EU, NATO and the Quest for European Autonomy (Palgrave, 2003, edited with John Keeler); European Integration and Defence: the Ultimate Challenge? (Paris, WEU-ISS, 2000). His current research focuses on power transition in the contemporary world with particular reference to the relative status of the European Union.
Vivien Schmidt, director of the Center for the Study of Europe, gave an introduction, to the discussion, which focused on the major challenges facing Europe’s peripheries. Howorth began by giving the historical context of the crises facing Europe, outlining the European crises in relation to the three major fundamental elements of sovereignty: money, borders, and defense. Criticizing the EU Neighborhood Policy, Howorth explained the inadequacies of the strategy, citing that the third countries to both the South and East were assumed to be the same, and thus handled the same. However, as Howorth discussed, bribery, in the form of pay offs to Northern African leadership and the allure of EU accession, were unsuccessful policy agendas. Embodying the context of the crises facing the EU, Howorth exclaimed, “from the Arctic to the Black Sea, and from the Bosporus to the Atlantic, the Neighborhood is a ring of fire.”
Rupnik began his talk by addressing the simultaneous implosion of the two Neighborhoods. He cited how, to the South, the Arab Spring and the ensuing chaos across the Middle East given the emergence of the Syrian Civil War and ISIS occurred, and immediately after, Putin invaded Crimea. He also pointed out how Russia’s involvement in the Syrian conflict has further complicated the environment surrounding Europe today, as Putin attempts to regain a position in big power politics. Rupnik emphasized how the greatest threat to the EU in the face of these threats is the lack of unity in prioritizing reactions to each Neighborhood. Asking the question “how do we react?” in regards to the double divide in the EU resulting the financial crisis (North vs. South) and the pressures of the migration crisis (East vs. West), forced Rupnik to acknowledge the changes both within the EU and in the surrounding Neighborhoods. Placing the strong and authoritarian leaders of MENA and Russia against the soft and normative power of the EU has created a competition for supremacy. While interdependency and emphasized democracy has been tremendously successful for the EU, Rupnik concluded by stating “normative power meets geopolitics.” By this, he meant that the post-colonial environment following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Ottoman Empire in both the Neighborhoods has caused chaos on the periphery, forcing a reshaping of EU agenda.
Howorth’s response focused on the fact that there is a finalité to the spread of the democracy and market economy through the EU. Criticizing a statement by Tony Blair in 2003 which claimed “we must have enlargement because we cannot have unstable borders”, Howorth laughed at the ridiculousness of such a theory. Next, Howorth turned toward Russia, explaining how Russia’s momentary fade from power during the 1990s cannot overshadow the overarching trend of Russia as a great and geopolitical power since Peter the Great, especially considering “normative power cannot math geostrategic thinking,” leading to the current complications resulting from competing influence between Putin and the EU.
Rupnik countered Howorth’s criticism by praising Blair’s statement that “the EU should become a superpower, not a superstate.” Continuing with the focus on the Eastern periphery, Rupnik addressed the multiple Putin administrations and the shift in relations, from an early cooperative partner to the current volatile situation which he argues can be traced to the period immediately following the Color Revolutions of the early 2000s. Dislike of NATO from the Cold War and the exclusion of Russia in the 1990s coupled with the threat of EU enlargement and ‘Europeanization’ led to the cooling of the relationship between Putin and the EU. Rupnik concluded his statements by acknowledging that the sanctions against Russia, while controversial in many EU nations, were necessary to help Eastern countries, as the EU has a roll to play as a tool of reform in the face of post-communist corrupt systems.
The discussion ended when Vivien Schmidt opened the floor to questions from the audience, which featured questions concerning the rise of the Right across the EU and Putin’s financial support of such undermining nationalist groups, as well as the long-term implications of Turkey pivoting back toward the Middle East after being denied EU. Both speakers briefly answered these questions, concluding that not even expert analysts can predict what to expect in the future given the continuously shifting dynamics both within the EU and its surrounding periphery.
The EU Futures project – exploring the emerging future in Europe – is supported by a Getting to Know Europe Grant from the European Commission Delegation in Washington, DC.
Listen to an edited broadcast of the talk on WBUR’s World of Ideas: