Center News

Boston University Researchers Receive CDC Grant for Epidemic Analytics & Predictive Modeling Project

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Tuesday, September 19, 2023
Contact:
Cassandra Kocek (BU CEID), ckocek@bu.edu
Jillian McKoy (BU SPH), jpmckoy@bu.edu

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Boston University Researchers Receive CDC Grant for Epidemic Analytics & Predictive Modeling Project
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the critical need for enhanced epidemic modeling and analytic tools. Despite advances in epidemic modeling and analytics, issues persist around data and model quality, accessibility, and accurate representation of diverse population groups, potentially exacerbating health inequities. Addressing these challenges necessitates the transformation of high-quality data into meaningful insights for equitable decision-making and policy formulation.

The “Epistorm: Center for Advanced Epidemic Analytics and Predictive Modeling Technology” project emerged in response to these needs. Led by PI Alessandro Vespignani, Ph.D. of Northeastern University, Epistorm is a multi-organization, collaborative project bringing together researchers from Northeastern University, Boston University, the University of California San Diego, Los Alamos National Laboratory, the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Indiana University, the University of Florida, and Ginkgo Bioworks, as well as several hospital networks. Among this group include Boston University faculty members Laura White, Ph.D., and Kayoko Shioda PhD, DVM, MPH. Both are faculty at the university’s School of Public Health (SPH) and Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases Policy & Research (CEID). Together, Drs. White & Shioda lead CEID’s research core on Data Science & Surveillance.

Dr. Shioda expressed her enthusiasm for this project’s impact. “I am beyond excited and honored to contribute to this vital initiative led by CDC CFA, dedicated to enhancing outbreak response capabilities in the US. I am particularly thrilled to lead a project that aims to build a solid infrastructure and analytic framework for the real-time assessment of vaccine effectiveness and safety, using causal inference methodologies.”

Proposed in response to a May 2023 Notice of Funding Opportunity from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), the Epistorm project has received $17.5 million in funding across five years beginning September 30, 2023. Addressing the above challenges necessitates the transformation of high-quality data into meaningful insights for equitable decision-making and policy formulation. The Epistorm center aims to address these challenges by capitalizing and innovating on breakthroughs in machine learning, data access, and computational capacity. Epistorm places a strong emphasis on educational strategies, providing trainees with hands-on experiences in public health responses and analytics projects, thereby fostering career pathways within public health systems. “Each of the grantees will help us move the nation forward in our efforts to better prepare and respond to infectious disease outbreaks that threaten our families and our communities,” says Dylan George, director of the CDC Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics.

Speaking to the importance of proactive pandemic preparedness, Dr. White said, “This CDC initiative is an exciting and important step in preparing for future pandemic threats. I am pleased to be a part of such an innovative and diverse team of scientists from across the country and look forward to working together to developing better tools and methods for detecting and responding to future pandemics.”

CEID director, Nahid Bhadelia, MD, MALD, says of the project, "The goals of CEID Data Science and Surveillance Core are to develop new methodologies and networks to provide critical analysis for outbreak response. This CDC grant will allow Dr. White and Dr. Shioda to accomplish those goals in partnership with collaborators and stakeholders nationally."

In sum, the Epistorm project ambitiously tackles existing challenges in epidemic modeling and analytics, offering innovative, practical, and equitable solutions to enhance decision-making and policy formation during health emergencies.

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About Boston University Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases Policy & Research (CEID)
Boston University’s Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases Policy and Research (CEID) is a university wide center focused on global health security and linking technical knowledge to policy issues related to emerging pathogens and epidemic threats. CEID’s core mission is to improve resilience against threat of emerging & epidemic infectious diseases worldwide through transdisciplinary research, global and local capacity strengthening, training, evidence generation for policy support, and community engagement. The center’s faculty represent 9 BU Schools and Colleges as well as external and international affiliates, bringing expertise from virology, clinical infectious diseases and infection control, to epidemiology, data sciences, communications and global health policy.

About Boston University School of Public Health
Founded in 1976, Boston University School of Public Health is one of the top ten ranked schools of public health in the world. It offers master's- and doctoral-level education in public health. The faculty in six departments conduct policy-changing public health research around the world, with the mission of improving the health of populations—especially the disadvantaged, underserved, and vulnerable—locally and globally.

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Reflecting On One Year of MPOX Response event highlights

On August 17, 2023, CEID hosted a hybrid event, “Reflecting on One Year of MPOX Response,” in partnership with BU’s Hariri Institute for Computational Sciences & Engineering. The panel discussion, which was moderated by CEID Director, Dr. Nahid Bhadelia, featured opening remarks from Dr. Ashish Jha, Dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health. Panelists included Dr. Nikki Romanik, Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, Adrianna Boulin, and Dr. Céline Gounder. (Full speaker bios can be found at the end of this event summary).

The MPOX pandemic has been a major public health crisis that had a devastating impact globally and in the United States. The purpose of this event was to identify best practices from the MPOX response to future infectious diseases threats. The themes of discussion covered the following:

  • The challenges and successes of the MPOX response, communications, and community engagement
  • The lessons learned from the MPOX pandemic for other emerging infectious diseases responses.
  • The future of MPOX preparedness

SPEAKER REMARK SUMMARIES:

Dr. Bhadelia introduced the event and spoke about the importance of capturing lessons learned.

In his opening remarks, Dr. Jha spoke to the lessons learned from the COVID-19 response that shaped the national response to mpox. He listed six key takeaways:

  1. The importance of building an empowered team from a diverse background of experiences and expertise. He highlighted the value of having an action-oriented team with teammates who understand both the science and public health concerns along with how to make real change when working with the federal government.
  2. Building trust with the community. Especially regarding mpox, which has disproportionately affected the LGBTQ+ community, it was important to work along with that community to understand their needs in shaping the response. Additionally, when receiving criticism, rather than dismissing opposing views, that is an opportunity to listen and engage to understand why someone disagrees with your approach.
  3. Being able to act nimbly and make the best-informed decision even with incomplete data. In a fast-moving outbreak, there often isn’t time to create large, randomized trials. So, we need to be able to act on previous knowledge and the data we do have, then adjust as needed as more data becomes available.
  4. Leveraging existing resources and infrastructure. Jha said, “When you get a new outbreak, by definition, it's not in your budget line. There's no budget line for mpox because when the budgets were put in two years before, no one had thought we'd be dealing with it.” So, the mpox response needed to think more broadly about where they could leverage existing resources and stakeholder relationships.
  5. Do not declare “mission accomplished” too early. As cases begin to subside, there is often a temptation to say the work here is done. But it’s important to fight that temptation because viruses can lull and spike, ebb and flow. Staying vigilant and continuing the work helped avoid the mpox surge that was expected for this summer.
  6. Prepare for the future. Once the worst of an outbreak is under control, it’s important to create safeguards to avoid or prepare to handle it if it returns. This means continuing production and distribution of vaccines and treatment even in the lulls.

Dr. Romanik emphasized the role of engaging with the community to learn about their experiences with mpox and what aspects of the response were (and weren’t) working for them. Notably, she cites an example from one of their workshops where a Black trans woman said that the term “monkeypox” was stigmatizing and a barrier to vaccination. Once the World Health Organization (WHO) learned that this stigma was inhibiting vaccination efforts, they worked quickly to rename “monkeypox” to “mpox,” which was much better received. Romanik also discussed the role of the new White House Office of Pandemic Preparedness where she serves as its Chief of Staff.

Dr. Daskalakis mentioned the success of collaborating with advocates for HIV care and prevention since there is so much overlap in the communities affected by both conditions. Along those lines, the mpox response took learnings from what worked and (perhaps more importantly) what didn’t work from the initial HIV response in the early 1980s. There was so much stigma around labeling HIV as a “gay disease,” creating trauma that the mpox response team did not want to recreate. At the same time, it was important to recognize that mpox is primarily spread between gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM). Based on current HIV prevention messaging, the mpox response chose to focus more on creating awareness around the how it transmits and what MSM can do to stay safe. Daskalakis also talked about how existing programs can be leveraged during infectious diseases emergencies, such as how Ryan White and other HIV clinic infrastructure was used to provide MPOX vaccinations. This effort also increased patient engagement around other STDs in those clinics.

Ms. Boulin addressed the specific intersection of racial and ethnic disparities seen among mpox cases. In her work at Fenway Health and Boston Pride for the People, both organizations collaborated with local partners to increase community engagement. This included hosting webinars, creating infographics, and organizing vaccination clinics at Boston Pride. She reiterated the importance of meeting people where they are at. Rather than working to encourage people to go to pharmacies or health clinics for vaccines, bring the vaccines to where people are already gathering, such as Pride events. She also spoke about the importance of cultural humility and self-awareness in approaching any public health issue.

In the same vein, Dr. Gounder spoke to the challenges of communicating clearly and effectively about mpox & how it is spread. She recommended against taking a one-size-fits-all approach. To reach the people most at risk, communication needs to be realistic, open, and honest. “Look, this is a sexually transmissible disease. Most of it was sexually transmitted. Yes, there are other mechanisms of transmission, but I think you do need to be clear about how it is transmitted so people can protect themselves,” she said. Americans’ reluctance to talk about sex has been a real challenge to being able to put this information out to mainstream media.

There were many common threads among the panelists. They all spoke to the value of including the LGBTQ+ community in shaping the response, listening to what messaging resonated with them and what they found isolating, to include them as active stakeholders in their care. “The louder someone criticizes you, the more important it is that they have a place at the table,” said Dr. Daskalakis. He went on to explain that if someone, especially from the community being impacted by a given crisis, is disagreeing with your approach, it’s necessary to understand why. He said that this creates accountability in being able to go back to the community and say, “This is what we did [based on the feedback you gave us] or sometimes what we didn’t do and here’s why we couldn’t do that.”

The panelists emphasized that out-of-the-box thinking contributed to the success of mpox response, particularly meeting people where they were to reach vulnerable groups. Mobile vaccination sites went to locations such as Pride parades and gay clubs.

Because of the unpredictable nature of pandemics, no pandemic response can be perfect, but this conversation made it clear that the mpox response has been quite successful overall. Considering that a year ago (August 2022) the US was seeing six hundred new cases a day and in one year we are now seeing less than one per day, plus avoiding the seasonal summer spike originally predicted for this year, it has been a well-organized and successful response indeed.

The panel was well attended, with over two hundred guests joining us in the Center for Data Sciences and through Zoom. Guests who were able to attend on campus, including many CEID faculty members, BU interim president Ken Freeman, BU Associate Provost for Research Gloria Waters, MA State Representative Bill Driscoll, MA Dept. of Public Health Commissioner Robbie Goldstein, and MA Dept. of Public Health Assistant Commissioner Dawn Fukuda enjoyed the subsequent reception on the CDS open-air patio overlooking the Charles River.

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CEID Releases 2022 Annual Report

Boston University's Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases Policy and Research is proud to release our Annual Report: Growing Resilience Against Epidemics.

The report opens with a letter by CEID Founding Director, Dr. Nahid Bhadelia, who is currently on sabbatical. "We founded CEID a year ago with a vision that to address the growing threat of emerging pathogens, we need multidisciplinary research & to approach pandemic preparedness from the bottom up, rooted in our communities globally. Our goal is to create a pandemic preparedness initiative that focused on the operational & technical aspects of global health security and to link policy to ground truth. Epidemics break societies along known fault lines. Ensuring that we provide protection for all our communities is a critical component of resilience. Hence, one of the driving forces of the center is rooted in the key value at the center of all things at BU: equity."

The report takes stock of CEID's inaugural year and the strong foundation we have built thanks in no small part to our incredible faculty, partners, and supporters who have helped us bring this vision to life. As we continue to move forward under the direction of CEID Acting Director Dr. David Hamer, we renew our commitment to these goals and look forward to all we will accomplish in the year ahead.

"The current global monkeypox epidemic and the continued evolution of SARS-CoV-2 highlight the threat that the world faces from emerging infectious diseases," said  Dr. Hamer."CEID is well placed to address the challenges that the world faces from these emerging diseases as well as others that are likely to arise as a result of climate change, stressed water supplies, environmental destruction, global population growth, ineffective or absent surveillance systems, and microbial evolution.”

 

Read The 2022 Annual Report

CEID Faculty Dr. David Hamer To Serve As Interim Director

Dear CEID Community,

We write to congratulate our Founding Director, Dr. Nahid Bhadelia, who has joined the White House COVID-19 Response Team as senior policy advisor for global COVID-19 response. We also want to share that Dr. Bhadelia will be on sabbatical for the duration of this full-time position.

During this interim period, CEID will continue its critical work under the leadership of Dr. David Hamer, who will serve as CEID’s Interim Director. Dr. Hamer has been faculty at CEID since its inception and he brings decades of global public health and infectious diseases experience. He will continue to work with our team to move forward the projects currently under way and to expand our partnerships.

Last month, we celebrated the one year anniversary of the founding of CEID and we are immensely grateful for your support of our work and mission over the past year. As the pandemic continues and we are faced with new challenges, our mission of building resilience against pandemics through equity remains at the core of what we do as a center. We look forward to your continued support as we enter this new chapter.

Sincerely,

The CEID Team

 

 

Working with healthcare workers to improve vaccination uptake in Uganda

Over the last two years, more than ten billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered worldwide. However, global vaccine inequity has led to disproportionate vaccine distribution, with Africa, for example, receiving less than 6% of the worldwide share of vaccines. We believe that advocacy to bridge this disparity is urgently needed. Gaining ground on controlling the pandemic currently hinges on getting as many COVID-19 vaccines as possible to those susceptible, in order to reduce the death toll and avoid overwhelming essential services. Additionally, investment is needed to ensure doses are delivered to the last mile and address vaccine hesitancy. We present the current challenges to vaccine uptake in Uganda and suggest strategies for improvement. 

Uganda has received 32 million vaccines, including AstraZeneca, Moderna, J&J, BioNTech, Sinovac, and Sinopharm. Until November 2021, the Ministry of Health prioritized the vaccination of essential workers (health care, teachers, security), people with comorbidities, and people over 50 years old. In preparation to open the economy, this scope was expanded to include all adults over 18. Then, with the surge in cases due to the omicron variant, boosters were recommended for individuals who had been fully vaccinated for a minimum of six months. The Government of Uganda has considered legislation against refusal to get vaccinated, although vaccination among healthcare workers was already high before this

As of January 2022, 46% of all priority individuals in Uganda have been vaccinated, with healthcare workers accounting for the biggest share of those who have received at least one dose of  the COVID-19 vaccine yet, 65% of all COVID-19 hospital admissions have been for the unvaccinated elderly

So, how can we leverage the success achieved with healthcare workers for other groups (elderly and those with comorbidities) where coverage has lagged ? The rapid advances in science related to vaccine development and safety and access and government directives present a challenge. Until recently, myths relating to vaccine safety in pregnant women and lactating mothers–despite the data– were prevalent . Encouragingly, health workers are a trusted source of information for peers and community members, including for COVID-19 vaccines, and we believe that they are well positioned to provide accurate information about COVID vaccines during antenatal and postnatal visits.

Healthcare workers administer vaccines often in their workplace. However, most doses are currently in use in large scale community outreach efforts known as accelerated mass vaccination campaigns. These campaigns aim to reach large numbers of people within the community and aim to use up vaccine doses quickly, particularly vaccine doses with short expiry. Consequently, patients with comorbidities may attend their appointments at facilities which do not have vaccines and this is a missed opportunity for direct intervention from healthcare workers. 

With the challenge of vaccines with a short shelf life, mass campaigns remain a relevant approach. However, health facilities can leverage existing staff and resources for routine childhood immunizations and ensure adequate local stocks of COVID-19 vaccines. Health workers must systematically screen vulnerable groups for vaccination status, must have the knowledge and skills to create demand for vaccines, and must link patients to locations where vaccines are administered. These approaches are not only targeted to maximize the benefits of vaccines for the most vulnerable, but they are also more sustainable and less costly than large scale community outreach. The robust vaccine distribution networks and vaccines with a long shelf life are essential for the success of this approach. 

Additionally, the elderly may face challenges due to frailty, inadequate resources for transportation or to avoid crowds. Community health workers may be needed to ensure that elderly patients are counseled and mobilized for vaccination or linked to the nearest vaccination location points once vaccines are available.

The lifting of travel restrictions and the reopening of schools in Uganda presents an opportunity to collaborate with health workers to promote vaccine uptake among our most vulnerable populations. This intervention should be layered on other public health measures such as screening and testing, mask use, hand hygiene, and physical distancing to strengthen resilience to future waves.

We believe Uganda’s experience may be mirrored in other countries in the region and these experiences would have broader lessons for how COVID-19 vaccines are distributed on a global scale. 


Dr. Rodgers R. Ayebare
CEID Scholar
Infectious Diseases Scientist, Infectious Diseases Institute, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda

Dr. Mohammed Lamorde
Head of Global Health Security, Infectious Diseases Institute, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda

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Boston University’s Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases Policy & Research (CEID) Announces $25K Pilot Grant Awardees

An integral component of CEID’s mission is to share knowledge and training opportunities that improve societal resilience against emerging and epidemic infectious diseases threats worldwide. As part of that goal, in Fall 2021, we released an inaugural call for proposals for pilot grants in the amount of $25,000.  

After a peer reviewed selection process of this year's slate of exceptional proposals, we are pleased to announce the two projects awarded these inaugural grants!  These projects demonstrate strength in research and a commitment to furthering CEID’s mission, with a respective focus on our core pillars of trust and innovation. Congratulations to all the researchers! 

Social Media Analysis of Misinformation and Vaccine Hesitancy in Three Middle-Income Countries 

Dr. Traci Hong, Dr. Derry Wijaya, Dr. Veronika J. Wirtz 

Misinformation fuels vaccine hesitancy across the world, but the mechanism by which misinformation inhibits vaccine uptake is largely under-studied, specifically in middle-income countries. The slow rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine in middle-income countries presents fertile ground for misinformation to proliferate. Moreover, social media usage in middle-income countries is projected to grow whereas usage has plateaued in high-income countries. Political leaders as well as religious personalities play a critical role in health decision making and dissemination of health information. Anecdotal evidence suggests that when some religious personalities espouse views contrary to science, it can have significant consequences to the wellbeing of large segments of the population, but this has not been empirically demonstrated. These conditions present a unique opportunity to study the impact of social media misinformation from key influencers on vaccine hesitancy in middle-income countries.

This research project will develop a big data methodology to measure Twitter-based COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and related political- and religious-based COVID-19 vaccine misinformation for three middle-income countries: Brazil, Indonesia and Nigeria. The researchers will also identify shared misinformation themes across the three foci countries, and use mediation analysis to test the hypothesis that vaccine hesitancy mediates the relationship between misinformation and vaccine uptake and other behaviors related to COVID-19. This research builds on CEID’s core pillar of trust. 

Modeling Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) Outbreaks in Wastewater

Dr. Muhammad Zaman, Dr. David Hamer 

Wastewater (comprising industrial, hospital and agricultural wastewater or run-offs and domestic wastewater or sewage) systems are major reservoirs of multi-drug resistant bacterial populations that put the lives of vulnerable communities at risk. This is particularly of concern in low and middle income countries, and in urban informal settlements, where wastewater systems represent a leading driver of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The dynamics of AMR emergence in wastewater environments is currently not fully understood. Existing studies have only surveyed the presence of antibiotic resistant organisms, genes and antibiotic residue in wastewater environments; the evolution and causative drivers of antibiotic resistant infectious disease outbreaks remain unknown. This has been a challenge due to both the lack of quantitative studies and the fact that experimental studies that mimic the wastewater environment can be difficult with standard laboratory culture techniques.

The goal of this project is to develop a novel, integrated mathematical modeling and experimental approach that will serve as a rigorous, data-driven, robust and scalable method allowing for the simultaneous study of several bacterial and environmental factors. The researchers will focus on several informal urban settlements in Pakistan, Bangladesh and South Africa for data collection and optimization of our model. This work will lead to a model to be used as a surveillance tool which can not only shed light on the evolution of antibiotic resistance, but also inform specific interventions, including surveillance, regulations, wastewater treatment plans and targeted antibiotic stewardship programs. Furthermore, the researchers believe that the outcome of this work in the form of an experimentally- and field-validated mathematical model is readily customizable and scalable, and can therefore be adapted to study context-specific wastewater systems in varying geographies and socioeconomic environments. Closing this gap through quantitative modeling and analysis is critical to fundamentally understanding the drivers of AMR and creating effective interventions to prevent outbreaks of multi-drug resistant pathogens. This research builds on CEID’s core pillar of innovation. 

Click here to stay up to date on CEID’s work 

New Partnership with CONNECTED DMV to build global resilience against emerging infectious disease threats

We are excited to announce a partnership between CEID and CONNECTED DMV. We will be cooperating with CONNECTED DMV in their Pandemic Prevention and Biodefense Initiative and serve as a key partner in the Global Pandemic Prevention and Biodefense Center and AHEAD100 initiative.

CONNECTED DMV’s Global Pandemic Prevention & Biodefense Center aims to harness all of the rich talent and critical health research, biotech, defense, and government assets that the world has to offer to deliver a full-scale response. The flagship lead initiative of the Center is AHEAD100, an ambitious, medical countermeasures program aims to develop and stockpile monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) for the world's top 100 pathogens across 25 pathogen families most likely to cause pandemics. The availability of this stockpile fills the critical time gap between outbreaks and activated vaccines during which a pandemic can be wholly avoided. Learn more about CONNECTED DMV and the Global Pandemic Prevention & Biodefense Center at www.pandemicprevention.org.

Dr. Bhadelia will serve on the Steering Committee of the Pandemic Prevention and Biodefense Initiative in the DMV, and CEID faculty will provide expertise and strategic guidance for the new venture through this cooperation. We look forward to joining forces with CONNECTED DMV in helping build global resilience against emerging infectious disease threats.

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Dr. Bhadelia joins Science Council convened by the Federation of American Scientists and Congressman Bill Foster

CEID Founding Director Dr. Nahid Bhadelia joins a new Science Council convened by the Federation of American Scientists and Congressman Bill Foster (D, IL-11) to help inform evidence-based policy measures. The group of science and technology experts will work collaboratively to provide evidence-based information in many diverse scientific focus areas, including "infectious diseases, artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, and social epidemiology." The Council will also help foster relationships between policymakers and the scientific community. 

To learn more, view the press release about the new Science Council.

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