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Restrepo, an associate professor of economics who studies the interaction of automation and labor, was inspired to conduct some of his earlier research after he observed that a lot of people had positive outlooks on technology\u2019s impact on jobs. He felt that view lacked nuance. \u201cOne thing that puzzled me was that everyone was making analogies to past technological revolutions\u2014for example, the Industrial Revolution. And there were many people saying things like, \u2018Oh, it\u2019s the usual thing where technology changes the nature of jobs, and everyone benefits,\u2019\u201d he says. \u201cI was skeptical about that narrative.\u201d<\/p>\n
For one, that outlook didn\u2019t mesh with macro trends he was observing, including increasing wage inequality and deteriorating employment opportunities for young men with lower education levels. Today, Restrepo continues to look at how automation technologies introduced since the 1980s have contributed to these trends. He has also begun to focus on the impact of AI on the labor market and is intrigued to see how it plays out in the next few decades.<\/p>\n
The Robots Are Coming<\/h3>\n
Restrepo says that the people who had positive outlooks on the impact of new technologies on jobs weren\u2019t considering the vastly different kinds of technology and industries out there. \u201cThere are technologies that are tools that can augment the capabilities of humans,\u201d he says. \u201cThen there are automation technologies that work by substituting humans in things that humans were doing.\u201d More sophisticated computer systems might help office workers collaborate or be more efficient, but advanced robotics can replace an entire factory of laborers.<\/p>\n
To better understand the impact of automation technologies across regions and industries, Restrepo worked with Daron Acemoglu, an economist at MIT, on a 2019 study published in the <\/span>Journal of Political Economy<\/span><\/i><\/a>, which looked at changes in employment and wage growth in US industries from 1980 to 2007. They found less wage growth in regions where more automating industrial robots were used for manufacturing.<\/p>\n \u201cThere are some industries where you can use robots very effectively,\u201d Restrepo says. The automobile, petrochemical, and metallurgical industries are all examples. With car manufacturing, he points out, welding jobs were hit especially hard. \u201cYou used to have people doing the welding and now you have a robot.\u201d<\/p>\n However, Restrepo and Acemoglu found that other industries, like apparel manufacturing, have proven more resilient against the impacts of automation on human labor. \u201cIt\u2019s very hard to come up with a robot that can do the whole process of sewing, because fabrics come in uneven shapes and sizes. It\u2019s not the same as welding a car which always comes in the same shape,\u201d says Restrepo. Still, that could change. \u201cWe\u2019re starting to develop robots that are coupled with computer vision and can automate sewing,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n