"To lose without fighting? The US, China, Southeast Asia and the South China Sea"

  • Starts: 2:00 pm on Thursday, October 16, 2014
  • Ends: 3:00 pm on Thursday, October 16, 2014
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How long can the United States remain a ‘resident power in Asia' in the face of China’s rise? Are Southeast Asian countries destined to become satellite states of Beijing? It’s increasingly fashionable to assume that China will inevitably eject the United States from Asia - starting in the South China Sea. Many voices - from ‘hawks’ in China to naval advocates in the US - are talking up Beijing’s abilities as a diplomatic and military power. But how plausible is this narrative? This presentation will take a skeptical view but argue that, if it takes hold, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy - the US and Southeast Asia would lose without fighting. It will argue that China’s actions in the South China Sea are not motivated by a desire to supplant the US as a global power but by a sincere, though mistaken, belief that the Sea is part of its national territory. On the other hand, the United States and Southeast Asian countries have overlapping but substantially different interests in the South China Sea. While the US prioritises freedom of navigation, the littoral states prioritise their territorial claims. The interaction between these two agendas and their conflict with China’s are the greatest risk to future peace and security in the region.

The Speaker Bill Hayton is the author of The South China Sea: the Struggle for Power in Asia, being published by Yale University Press in October 2014. His previous book Vietnam: Rising Dragon was published by Yale in 2010. He has worked for the BBC since 1998, including a posting as the BBC reporter in Vietnam in 2006-7. He currently works for BBC World TV in London. He has written about Southeast Asia for many publications including The Times, Financial Times, Foreign Policy, National Interest and The Diplomat. He spent 2013 embedded with the state broadcaster in Myanmar working on media reform.

Location:
Pardee School of Global Studies, 121 Bay State Road

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