Departments
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Week of 7 November 1997 |
Vol. I, No. 11 |
Feature
Article
Negotiating for the next millennium
BU professors prepare for Kyoto global warming talks
by Brian Fitzgerald
In early December negotiators from around the world will meet in Kyoto, Japan, and try to hammer out an international climate control treaty. Among those eager for results is Adil Najam, a CAS international relations assistant professor who plans to attend the conference and press for a meaningful agreement to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in the earth's atmosphere.
President Bill Clinton has spoken forcefully about the threat of global warming and has called for industrial nations to return to their 1990 emissions levels in 10 or 12 years. But environmentalists have criticized the proposal as far too modest, saying that these gradual reductions won't be strong enough to fight global warming.
Still, despite "powerful opposition to legally binding emissions limits from U.S. auto industries and their friends on Capitol Hill," says Najam, "President Clinton did propose mandatory reductions." In a speech before the National Geographic Society October 22, Clinton also called for $5 billion in tax incentives to spur energy conservation and the development of technology to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
"President Clinton's actions will have immense impact not only on the global environment, but also on national economies, including that of the United States," says Najam. "And these are issues that a number of BU faculty and students are interested in." Najam is a member of the International Environmental Negotiation Network and a consultant for the World Conservation Union -- two of the many organizations that are going to Kyoto hoping that the United States plays a leadership role in the negotiations.
To be sure, Najam's colleagues and students will keep a watchful eye on the December 1 to 12 Kyoto summit. Najam is also an assistant professor at BU's Center for Energy and Environmental Studies (CEES), which coordinates Boston University's education, research, and professional training in the fields of energy and environmental analysis. In fact, several CEES researchers are studying the likely effects of the anticipated emission reduction agreements, both environmentally and economically.
The greenhouse effect is produced by certain gases in the earth's atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, that trap the sun's heat. Carbon dioxide is a by-product of the burning of coal, oil, natural gas, and other fossil fuels. Over the past 35 years average global temperatures have risen half a degree, and scientists warn that without new policies to mitigate climate change, greenhouse gases from industry and chemical processes will cause the earth's average temperature to rise two to six degrees Fahrenheit in the next century -- the most rapid warming trend in 10,000 years.
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Professors Matthias Ruth (left) and Adil Najam are preparing for the likely environmental and economic effects of the December greenhouse gas emissions summit in Kyoto, Japan. Photo by Vernon Doucette |
Clinton and Vice President Al Gore, in preparation for the Kyoto negotiations, conferred with scholars and business leaders from around the country on October 6 in Washington, D.C. At the same time, at Tufts University, Najam joined a panel of experts from the New England region who watched a satellite broadcast of this White House meeting and then held a panel discussion of their own. "The White House conference on climate change wasn't a meeting to announce the U.S. policy, but it was meant to give some signals of what it might be," says Najam.
At the White House conference, Clinton reiterated his belief that the scientific evidence of the greenhouse effect "is clear and compelling" and that the United States must invest more in technologies that will cut carbon emissions. After all, the United States, which has 4 percent of the planet's population, consumes 22 percent of the world's fossil fuels. But many political analysts point out that a U.S. commitment to cut back on its consumption of energy could undermine Gore's presidential hopes if it harms the economy.
Najam says that in Kyoto, European countries are expected to demand that industrialized nations agree to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by 2010 to 15 percent below what they were in 1990. "We believe that Japan will propose a 5 percent cut in emissions over the next 10 to 14 years," he says. The Alliance of Small Island States, threatened by a one- to three-foot rise in sea levels over the next century, has argued for even greater reductions: 20 percent by 2005.
"The big question is who makes what emissions reductions, and by when," say Najam. U.S. business leaders have told Clinton that they support voluntary measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Environmentalists counter that such reductions don't work, noting that many large industrialized nations have not been able to reduce their emissions under the voluntary targets set up in 1992 at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janiero. In fact, emissions for these countries, including the United States, have continued to rise.
But any plan seen as potentially damaging to the U.S. economy might be doomed: a treaty agreed upon in Kyoto must be ratified by the U.S. Senate.
Also watching the Kyoto negotiations closely will be Matthias Ruth, a CAS geography professor who does research for the CEES. At present, on a grant from the Environmental Protection Agency, he is working on a project on industry response to climate change policy. Ruth is assessing the likely effects emission reduction agreements will have on U.S. paper and pulp, iron and steel, and cement companies.
"These negotiations will affect not only the environment, but also how we do business and how we live," says Ruth. "All the wealth that we have generated in developed and developing countries is generated directly and indirectly by burning fossil fuels. Now we're talking about penalizing the use of this energy. Obviously, that requires major changes in how we satisfy our needs."
In that sense, both professors point out, the Kyoto talks are among the most important international negotiations that have ever taken place. "The world's governments will make decisions that will have a profound effect on everyone," says Ruth.
"We will be negotiating our lifestyle for the next millennium," says Najam.