Taiwan Conference: Tension in the Taiwan Strait: The Role of U.S. Allies (March 28, 2024)

Taiwan today finds itself in an increasingly unstable geostrategic environment. As Sino-American tensions soar and an increasingly powerful and assertive PRC flexes its growing military might, the situation in the Taiwan Strait today is arguably the tensest it has been since the 1950s. In recent speeches, Xi Jinping has repeatedly asserted that “resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China’s complete reunification is a historic mission and an unshakable commitment of the Communist Party of China” (July 1, 2021, on the 100^th anniversary of the founding of the CCP). While Beijing continues to assert that peaceful reunification is its goal, it refuses to rule out the use of force and in recent months has increased pressure on Taipei by dispatching its military forces into air and sea spaces traditionally under Taiwanese control.

In response, the United States has taken steps to underline its commitment to maintaining security in the Taiwan Strait. In recent months, as US military officials warn of the threat of war over Taiwan within the next decade, the United States and its allies have deployed forces to the region and have begun taking steps to improve Taiwan’s defenses. While most analysts continue to believe that the immediate prospect of a full-scale conflict remains relatively low, there are growing risks for incidents that could escalate quickly to the level of a major international crisis. On current trend lines, it seems likely that the situation will continue to worsen in the future.

This event examines the risks for conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the implications that the changed geo-strategic environment has for the US, Taiwan, the Sino-US relationship and the US-led system of alliances in the region. It builds on a series of BUCSA events about Taiwan’s security that we have held over the past few years, including a talk with Taiwan Defense Minister Andrew Yang in the Spring of 2021 and a presentation and discussion with senior US diplomat Chas Freeman in March 2022.

To help us with planning, please register for this event by scanning the QR code above, or by clicking on this link

About the Speakers and Moderator:

Akio Takahara 高原　明生 is Professor of Contemporary Chinese Politics at the Graduate School of Law and Politics at the University of Tokyo. He rearned his undergraduate degree at University of Tokyo, his M. Ph. in Development Studies at the University of Sussex, and his D.Phil. in 1988 from the University of Sussex, and later spent several years as Visiting Scholar at the Consulate-General of Japan in Hong Kong (1989-91), the Japanese Embassy in Beijing (1996-98) , the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research, Harvard University (2005-2006), and at the School of International Studies, Peking University (2014-15). Before joining the University of Tokyo, he taught at J. F. Oberlin University (1991-1995) and Rikkyo University (1995-2005), and at the University of Tokyo since 2005. He also served as a Program Officer of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (1988-1989), Member of the Governing Body of the Institute of Development Studies, UK (1999-2003) , President of the Japan Association for Asian Studies (2009-2011), and Secretary General of the New Japan-China Friendship 21^st Century Committee (2009-2014). He currently serves as senior fellow of the Tokyo Foundation, adjunct fellow of the Japan Institute of International Affairs, and senior fellow of the Japan Forum on International Relations, and senior research advisor at JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development.

His publications include The Politics of Wage Policy in Post-Revolutionary China, (Macmillan, 1992),  New Developments in East Asian Security (Akashi Shoten, 2005, co-editor, in Japanese), Beyond the Borders: Contemporary Asian Studies Volume One (Keio University Press, 2008, co-editor, in Japanese), The History of Japan-China Relations 1972~2012 Volume One Politics (University of Tokyo Press, 2012 , co-editor, in Japanese ), Modern History of Japan-China Relations (Yuhikaku Publishing Co., 2013, co-author, in Japanese), and To the Era of Developmentalism, 1972-2014, Series on China’s Modern History, Volume 5 (Iwanami Shoten, 2014, co-author, in Japanese) , “The Development of Japan-China Relations in the Period of Stability in Cross-Strait Relations,” (Journal of Contemporary China Studies 4 (2), 2015), “Forty-four Years of Sino-Japanese Diplomatic Relations Since Normalization,” in Peng Er Lam (ed.), China-Japan Relations in the 21st Century: Antagonism Despite Interdependency (Palgrave Macmillan, 2017), and “Introduction to the special issue on the comparative study of Asian countries’ bilateral relations with China,”  Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies10 (2) (2021)

Dr. Satu Limaye is Vice President of the East-West Center and the Director of the East-West Center in Washington and Research Program. He created and directs the Asia Matters for America initiative and is the founding editor of the Asia Pacific Bulletin. He is also a Senior Advisor at CNA Corp (Center for Naval Analyses). He is a graduate of Georgetown University and received his doctorate from Oxford University (Magdalen College) where he was a George C. Marshall Scholar. He has also been a Henry R. Luce Scholar and Abe Fellow (Japan Foundation, Social Science Research Council, & American Council of Learned Societies).

He publishes and speaks widely on Indo-Pacific regional issues and supports various US government, foundation, fellowship, and professional organizations. He recently served on the Center for New American Security (CNAS) Task Force on the US-Philippines Alliance, United States Institute of Peace (USIP) Senior Study Group on the North Pacific, Project 2049 Study Group on the US-Australia Alliance, and Global Taiwan Institute-Taiwan Asia Exchange Foundation project on Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy. He serves on the Korea Economic Institute (KEI) Advisory Council and editorial board of East Asian Policy (East Asia Institute, National University of Singapore) and regional editor of Global Asia (East Asia Foundation, ROK).

Recent publications include: Southeast Asia’s choices: Economic, political, and geopolitical integration face complications, India in East Asia: Focused on the Quad and Border Disputes with China, and Maintaining the Technology Edge: Strengthening US and Indo-Pacific Alliances to Counter Chinese Technology Acquisition (with Rose Tenyotkin).

Ja Ian Chong 莊嘉穎 is an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. He received his Ph.D. from Princeton University in 2008 and previously taught at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. His research covers the intersection of international and domestic politics, with a focus on the externalities of major power competition, nationalism, regional order and security, contentious politics, and state formation. He works on US-China relations, security and order in Northeast and Southeast Asia, cross-strait relations, and Taiwan politics. Chong is author of External Intervention and the Politics of State Formation: China, Indonesia, Thailand, 1893-1952 (Cambridge, 2012), a recipient of the 2013 International Security Studies Section Book Award from the International Studies Association. His publications appear in the China Quarterly, European Journal of International Relations, International Security, Security Studies, and other journals. As a Visiting Scholar at the Harvard-Yenching Institute (2019-2020), Chong examined how non-leading state behavior collectively intensifies major power rivalries, paying particular attention to the US-China relationship. His other projects include investigating how states react to sanctions on third parties by trade partners and the characteristics of foreign influence operations.  A video of his recent talk “Stand Up Like a Taiwanese!” can be found at https://jsis.washington.edu/taiwan/2023/04/23/stand-up-like-a-taiwanese-with-chong-ja-ian/

Thomas Berger is a professor of international relations at the Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University. Berger joined Boston University in 2001 after having taught for seven years at the Johns Hopkins University. He is the author of War, Guilt and World Politics After World War II,  Cultures of Antimilitarism: National Security in Germany and Japan and is co-editor of Japan in International Politics: The Foreign Policies of an Adaptive State. His articles and essays have appeared in numerous edited volumes and journals, including International Security, Review of International Studies, German Politics, and World Affairs Quarterly. Professor Berger’s areas of expertise include German and Japanese Politics, International Relations and Comparative Government in East Asia, and Political Culture.