IRAQ Vote Takes Center Stage for Kerry, Again

by David Tamasi

WASHINGTON - Senate Democrats have promised a vigorous debate this week on President Bush's request for $87 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan. But for Democrats running for President, especially Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, a nuanced approach may be required.

With public opinion polls showing eroding support for President Bush's postwar policy in Iraq, many Democrats have vowed to "ask questions" and not just "rubber-stamp" the president's proposal.

Yet Kerry must balance national politics with the disparate politics of early primary states such as New Hampshire and South Carolina. Navigating this political terrain has proved difficult.

Early on, Kerry was perceived as the Democratic front-runner in New Hampshire, thanks in part to high name recognition from his home state next door. But his vote a year ago for the resolution authorizing Bush to wage war in Iraq stunted his political growth in the Granite State.

"In New Hampshire, Democrats have to walk an incredibly fine line," said Andrew E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. "Across the country, they had to vote for the war to be viable, but within the Democratic electorate in New Hampshire, it is 2 to 1 against the war."

A poll of New Hampshire residents published last week by the UNH Survey Center found that 54 percent of respondents approved of the President's handling of Iraq. But 78 percent of Democrats - those who will drive the state's January primary -- disapprove of the administration's policy for postwar Iraq.

Smith said that it had been difficult for Kerry to "square his vote with Democrats who don't want to hear it." Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has eclipsed Kerry in the Granite State in large part because of his vocal opposition to the war in Iraq, Smith said.

"Dean has pushed this button hard, long and very effectively," Smith said.

Kerry had calculated that New Hampshire's primary would be his, but he has lagged some 10 points behind Dean in the polls since summer. Though Kerry is not conceding New Hampshire, he is looking beyond it to Super Tuesday and hoping that the seven states holding primaries Feb. 3 will propel him to the nomination.

The shift in strategy was apparent when Kerry held his formal campaign announcement speech in Charleston, S.C., after originally planning to deliver it in Boston. Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran, has made his military service a central theme of his candidacy and hopes to connect with the Palmetto State's many veterans.

Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said that while "there is a more pro-military attitude" in South Carolina, Kerry faced a more general problem with primary voters throughout the country.

"Kerry has to appeal to Democratic voters who see the handling of post-war Iraq as evidence of a huge mistake," Ornstein said. "Even among the more conservative Democrats, there is a visceral reaction."

While there is a difference between Democrats in New Hampshire and South Carolina, the "activists in these states are only different to a small degree," Ornstein said. "I think that Kerry was taken by surprise by the degree that Democratic voters were angry at President Bush."

David Lublin, a longtime government and international studies professor at the University of South Carolina, said the concerns of South Carolina's large percentage of African-Americans would have a major impact on the state's Democratic primary.

"African-Americans in South Carolina are more concerned about high unemployment rates," said Lublin, now at American University in Washington. "There is a strong military culture, and a lot of African- Americans in South Carolina serve in the military, but the economy is a very big concern."

Ornstein said that Iowa Democrats have more of an ideological tinge than their fellow party members in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Iowa holds its presidential caucuses Jan. 19, before the voting in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Kerry is currently running third or fourth in Iowa, depending on the poll.

Now Kerry is faced with another vote on Iraq-the $87 billion spending bill. In a statement on Tuesday, Kerry said, "Unless this proposal is changed to better protect taxpayer dollars and shares the burden and risk of transforming Iraq with the United Nations and the rest of the international community, then I will oppose it."

Smith said he did not think Kerry would hurt himself in New Hampshire if he voted for the $87 billion request. In fact, Smith speculated, a vote against the bill could backfire on Kerry.

"There is some risk of being labeled a flip-flopper and that he changed his vote for political purposes," Smith said. "Either way I am sure that Dean's campaign is prepared."