Passing the Medicare drug prescription bill by October 17 does not look hopeful

by Christine Moyer

WASHINGTON - Congressional negotiators working to find compromise on legislation that would offer prescription drug benefits to Medicare recipients hope to send a bill to President Bush by Oct. 17. Many of the legislation's supporters, critics and neutral observers are skeptical.

"Right now it's not looking good for the bill," said Dan Mendelson, who heads Health Strategies Consultancy, a Washington-based consulting firm.

Mendelson said that the fate of the bill depends on whether or not Bush wants to enact this legislation as he heads into a presidential election year. As of now, he said he does not think the President is using his muscle to push Congress members to complete their work.

It will be "excruciatingly difficult" to enact a Medicare bill this year, said Norman Ornstein, a political scientist at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank here. Senate and House negotiators, he said, "are increasing the pressure and turning up the heat on their own members. But that doesn't mean that it will happen by the 17th."

Socked by the high cost of prescription drugs, some elderly Connecticut residents have been forced to cut their pills in half or to take their daily medication every other day, according to Arnold Schwartz, an advocate for senior citizens in New Britain.

"Seniors aren't even optimistic about this bill passing, because they've been hearing about it for God knows how long," Schwartz said.

U.S. Rep. Nancy L. Johnson (R-5), one of a handful of Congress members on the conference committee that is negotiating the legislation, said the process of reconciling vastly different bills passed by the House and Senate in June is complicated. But "it is untrue that the conference is faltering," she said. "We passed the two bills one week before [summer] recess."

Mendelson is less optimistic. Negotiators, he said, "are just going through the motions. There are a good group of legislators, but they haven't decided if they want to compromise."

The AARP, the influential senior citizen lobbying group with 35 million members nationwide, is pushing negotiators to send a bill to Bush this fall, said Brenda Kelley, director of organization for the Connecticut branch of the AARP. "Our motto is fix it and pass it," she said.

Supporters of prescription drug benefits consider it critical for Congress to reach a compromise this year and avoid dragging the issue into an election year, when controversial bills often die.

But merging the House and Senate bills will be tough. The Senate version received bipartisan support, while the Republican-crafted House bill passed by a single vote. Now, conservative Republicans are threatening to kill any final bill carrying a price tag of more than $400 billion over 10 years.

Disparities in the bills include differing requirements for eligibility, two types of tax-exempt personal savings accounts for medical expenses in the House bill and a back-up mechanism in the Senate bill that would enable the government to provide drug benefits in parts of the country that offer fewer than two private drug plans.

When asked about the committee's push for an Oct. 17 deadline, Ornstein said, "They realize that if nothing is done in the next couple of weeks and people become consumed by appropriations, it won't get done."

Mendelson is not impressed that the conference committee set a goal for the bill's completion. "It's great, but it's not as significant as if the President says, 'I want a bill on my desk by Oct. 17.' "