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November 23, 2009

I have to say I am

I have to say I am ambivalent about the prospect of bailing out the auto industry. On the one hand, I do agree that allowing one or more of the big three to go under would have severe negative rippling effects throughout the economy, although I have to believe the surviving, albeit foreign owned competitors would pick up some of the slack. In the long run, the number of cars driven will not decrease, and therefore demand, in the long run, will also not decrease. Someone will step into the breach to build, sell and maintain these vehicles, and presumably at least some of the productive capacity of the then-defunct US auto makers, e.g., plant, labor, parts suppliers, would be utilized. I also fear that giving the auto companies a pass would open the door to companies in other industries looking for government aid. Where would it end? In fairness to the US auto companies, I think the government has been complicent in the current situation over at least the past 25 years. After the two oil shocks in the 1070s that caused the price of oil to almost quadruple, the government did sensibly pass fuel economy standards to encourage conservation and the building of more fuel-efficient cars. In the 80s however, the government chose to pursue deregulation, gutted the CAFE standards, and played games by classifying SUVs and light trucks (pick-ups) similar to commercial trucks, and exempted them from some of the stringent standards that passenger cars are subject to. This, combined with falling crude oil and gasoline prices due to a then perceived oversupply, conspired to create a demand for these larger gas-guzzling behemoths. In retrospect, the government probably should have retained, and indeed even tighted, the CAFE standards, and mandated that SUVs and light trucks be subject to these, as well as other passenger car requirements. They also probably should've imposed a "conservation tax" on cheap crude and gasoline, to keep the prices at a level that would encourage conservation, alternate energy R&D, and the production of smaller, more efficient vehicles. Absent these measures, one can hardly blame the car companies for responding to the resulting consumer demand, although they were right there with Big Oil lobbying the government for relaxed CAFE standards and fewer requirements on SUVs/light trucks. I also agree that in recent years the big three has been somewhat successful at gaining some meaningful concessions from the unions, and made great strides in producing better quality vehicles, almost on par with Japanese cars and in most cases better than European, even luxury European, brands. As I'm writing this I think on balance I am coming out in favor a bailout, but it does have to come with strings as noted in the article. I think the government also needs to take a more rationale, longterm view of energy policy, considering not only the impacts to our economy, but national security as well as environmental, and perhaps learn from some of the mistakes of the past 25 years?? Time will tell.

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