January 5, 2004 © New York University. All Rights Reserved.
What next in Iraq? Iraqi nationalism

By Dan Smith
Global Beat Syndicate
WASHINGTON—By any measure, pictures of an incarcerated Saddam Hussein should be a relief to the overwhelming majority of Iraqis. For the coalition, his capture opens a new window of opportunity to “get it right.” But it will be open for only a short time for one reason: nationalism.
Ernest Gellner, professor of social anthropology at Cambridge University in England, wrote in the 1980s that "nationalism" is the recognition among a group of people that they share the same culture or “system of ideas and signs and associations and ways of behaving and communicating.” Nationalism gains strength if it is paired with a “state” or other defined territory, as was evident in the rise of a unified Germany in the 19th century.
Because nationalism helps meet fundamental human needs—self-identity and a sense of self-worth—it is perhaps the most powerful psychological force after survival instincts. Nationalism provides the context in which individual identity is melded to community and one’s community is set apart from “others.” And in the hands of determined leaders, as we discovered—too late—in Vietnam, this distinction of “us” from “them” is enough to fuel armed conflict to secure the independence and integrity of culture and state.
Beyond disease, deprivation, torture and death, Saddam’s legacy to Iraqis includes a strong nationalism that he manipulated for his own ends. With Saddam now gone, this is a free-floating force, one which has been on frequent display by Sunni and Shi’ite Arabs, as well as among Iraqi Kurds who, under the protection of NATO’s Operation Northern Watch, have created a de facto state in northern Iraq.
Saddam's departure created a vacuum. Now the race to control or at least harness Iraqi nationalism will gather momentum, particularly among the Shi’ites, who comprise 60 percent of Iraq’s 25 million inhabitants who have grievances against the coalition forces: high unemployment, high crime rates, unreliable electricity and other public services. Moreover, the rough tactics of troops searching for insurgents—kicking down doors and knocking down houses—and the continuing toll of Iraqi non-combatants killed by U.S. troops during operations, are more likely to heighten Iraqi feelings of humiliation and prolong resistance, rather than to make them cower. This linkage was noted specifically by Lieutenant General James Conway, whose units were alerted for duty in Iraq beginning in March 2004, and who led his 20,000 Marines in their dash for Baghdad in April.
In the 1991 Gulf War, coalition forces won decisively, throwing Saddam’s forces out of Iraq, but Saddam himself was not decisively defeated. For 12 years he weathered uprisings, international inspections, no-fly and no-drive zones covering two-thirds of Iraq, and frequent bombings and missile attacks on his military installations. He survived through a combination of ruthlessness and rewards in dealing with his inner circle and key commanders, plus appeals to the pride of Iraqis in their heritage and their spirit in resisting invasion and oppression.
Despite Saddam's decisive defeat in 2003, the coalition that defeated him has yet to “win”—not only in Iraq, but in the Arab world, among U.S. allies, and in the larger circle of countries worldwide.
Wisely, U.S. field commanders generally remain cautious about future events in Iraq. The same wisdom suggests that they also need to remain cautious about dismissing the passionate psychology of Iraqi nationalism, which will not disappear simply because Saddam Hussein is in U.S. custody. As one Iraqi from Fallujah said: “We are fighting for our country, for our honor, for Islam. We are not doing this for Saddam.”
ABOUT THE WRITER
Dan Smith is senior analyst on military affairs at the Friends Committee on National Legislation, Washington, D.C., a Vietnam veteran and retired U.S. Army colonel.

© 2000 New York University. All Rights Reserved. The Global Beat Syndicate, a service of New York University's Center for War, Peace, and the News Media, provides editors with commentary and perspective articles on critical global issues from contributors around the world. For more information, check out http://www.nyu.edu/globalbeat/syndicate/.
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