Is Pyongyang Playing Politics in South Korea?North Korea's long term goal may be to pressure Washington, or influence South Korea's domestic politics, or both
By Ralph A. Cossa -- Global Beat Syndicate
Honolulu, HA – North Korea is either trying once again to influence ROK domestic politics or, by pure coincidence, is trying to create an international crisis by threatening to restart its frozen nuclear reactor. Either way, Pyongyang’s announcement that it is resuming nuclear weapons development came in the immediate wake of another potential crisis caused by its attempt to secretly ship missiles to the Middle East just days before South Korea's presidential elections.
Conventional wisdom is that Pyongyang is creating a fuss to force the Bush administration into new negotiations, but this in not necessarily the only, or even the primary, reason.
North Korea’s attempts to meddle in South Korean politics should come as no surprise. In September 2001, Pyongyang suddenly agreed to resume North-South dialogues immediately before a scheduled no confidence vote against then-Minister of Reunification Lim Dong-won, the architect of the Seoul’s Sunshine Policy. The tactic backfired; the vote proceeded and Lim was removed from office. And, after one meeting, Pyongyang once again canceled the North-South talks.
At a minimum, Pyongyang will have factored the election into timing its latest announcement, and it again represents a heavy-handed attempt to influence the outcome of South Korean elections. It is tough to determine whether the North's actions would benefit the conservative or liberal presidential candidate – understanding the level Pyongyang’s knowledge of South Korean domestic politics is no easy task. But the timing of this self-initiated crisis suggests that Pyongyang thinks its actions will influence events in its favor.
North Korea knows that Washington-Seoul relations are currently under considerable strain, exacerbated by the continued fallout over a tragic traffic accident last June in which two South Korean teenagers were killed. Trying to create a crisis now helps to feed anti-American feelings due to unhappiness among many South Koreans over Washington's hard-line policy toward the North. This creates a "win-win" situation for Pyongyang. Either Washington comes to the table, where Pyongyang hopes once again to be rewarded for its bad behavior, or, if Washington refuses, continues to feed anti-Americanism in the South.
North Korea's threat to restart its reactor – which it has a legal right to do, provided International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards remain in effect – also draws attention away from the main problem: Pyongyang’s secret uranium-enrichment program, undertaken in direct violation of a number of international and North-South agreements, not least its signed agreement with the IAEA. Washington has refused to resume talks with Pyongyang until it honors its past commitments.
Misinterpretation of the recent boarding of the missile-laden North Korean ship headed for Yemen may also be a contributing factor. The ship was stopped in the Indian Ocean by a Spanish ship participating in a UN-sanctioned effort to prevent the flow of weapons to al Qaeda or Iraq, then boarded by a U.S. inspection team that discovered North Korean Scud missiles that were not on the cargo manifest. Because Yemen has the right to purchase such systems the ship was allowed continue its journey.
The United States, despite accusations of unilateralism and preemptive tendencies, still follows the rule of law. Unfortunately, Pyongyang may have concluded that Washington is so preoccupied with Iraq that it will give North Korea free passes to misbehave or will go to any extreme to avoid a confrontation. This could be a dangerous assumption.
During his visit to Seoul last February, President Bush said the United States had no intention of invading North Korea. But this does not mean Washington will stand idly by if Pyongyang’s leaders put us or our friends at risk
Restarting the Yongbyon nuclear reactor, with or without IAEA safeguards, does not constitute an immediate threat. The reactor would have to run for an extended period to produce new weapons-grade plutonium or highly-enriched uranium, and more time would be needed to reprocess spent fuels and fabricate weapons. Nor will this reactor provide needed energy this winter or put food on North Korean tables. The best way for that to happen is for North Korea to respond positively to the international community's demand to end its various nuclear weapons program and come into full compliance with its international obligations.
Ralph A. Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Honolulu-based non-profit research institute affiliated with CSIS in Washington.