WASHINGTON -- The path towards nuclear disarmament is proving to be a long road. Even as they worry about other nations developing their own arsenals, the five acknowledged nuclear-weapons nations continue to squabble about plans for their own forces.
Only after being prodded by the majority of the world's non-nuclear nations did the five -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- reluctantly agreed last month to an agenda for incremental change under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Even their final communique promising to eliminate nuclear arms was filled with world like "should", "oughts" and "urges."
Even viewed in the best light, the language emanating from the NPT Review Conference does not constitute a blueprint for action. In several respects, the final document is a retreat from the strong measures proposed earlier by a coalition of anti-nuclear countries. For example, a timetable for disarmament initiatives and a requirement that the nuclear powers document their steps toward disarmament during the next five years was dropped at the urging of the United States and other nuclear states.
The nuclear-weapons states also rejected concerns expressed in earlier drafts by non-nuclear states regarding the thousands of nuclear weapons that remain ready to fire on a moment's notice, and reserved their privilege to use nuclear weapons first in battle. Instead, they whittled away at the text on steps towards disarmament in order to maintain their own arsenals. Doing so, they claim, constituted "promoting international stability" and was based upon the principle of "undiminished security."
Meanwhile, India and Pakistan join the nuclear fray by testing and building-up stockpiles destined to provoke fear and global insecurity. The United States threatens to start a new arms race by encouraging the development of an anti-missile network. Russia is showing a rediscovered enthusiasm for nuclear weapons, and China continues its nuclear weapons modernization efforts.
Yet a few "baby steps" were taken at the conclusion of the conference that may give some reason for optimism. Some of the concepts agreed to at the review conference can be considered seeds of progress towards creating a safer planet, provided that supporters of non-proliferation and disarmament can maintain a concerted effort to nurture the nuclear-weapons states along the path towards peace.
Conferees agreed there should be "an unequivocal undertaking by the nuclear-weapons states to accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals leading to nuclear disarmament." They collectively called for the opening of global negotiations aimed at banning nuclear weapons and tests, and discussed pursuit of a global treaty to ban military productions of radioactive material.
Russia and the U.S. were urged to implement the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II (START II) and reach a START III agreement "while preserving and strengthening the [Anti-Ballistic Missile] Treaty as a cornerstone of strategic stability and as a basis for further reductions of strategic offensive weapons."
In addition, NPT conferees agreed the nuclear-weapons states should consider new unilateral cuts in their arsenals and moves to reduce "the operational status of nuclear weapons."
Other new areas addressed include: -- Developing verification capabilities "to provide assurances of compliance" with agreements; -- Making nuclear weapons capabilities and agreements more "transparent"; -- Ensuring progress is "irreversible"; for example, by dismantling rockets and making plutonium fuel unusable; -- Agreeing to a progress report for future review conferences, preferably by 2002.
The conferees further reaffirmed "that the strict observance of the provisions of the treaty remains central to achieving the shared objectives of preventing, under any circumstances, the further proliferation of nuclear weapons and preserving the treaty's vital contribution to peace and security."
Overall, the conference has provided a prototype agenda for nations to pursue. What remains to be done, however, is to convert these "baby-steps" towards meaningful strides by the five nuclear powers towards developing policies that will actually bring about nuclear disarmament.
Dan Plesch is the director of the British American Security Information Council and was a non-governmental organization delegate to the NPT treaty review conference.