One way to think about the current disaster in the Balkans is to compare
it to gang warfare in a very tough section of a city.
Think of the Balkans as one of Europe's poorer neighborhoods, long
disputed and blighted by rival developers, each favoring their own ethnic
groups. Now violent evictions are under way. A powerful landlord wants
to clear out one of his buildings in the neighborhood by terrorizing its
tenants, one apartment at a time. He kills those who resist.
At first, local officials ignore the situation. The local tenants association
is marginalized, locked out of talks dealing with similar situations in
other neighborhoods. The local youths form vigilante groups. Response from
the local police is non-existence. The rest of the city looks on and shakes
its head.
Eventually, a heavily armed private security force, complete with SWAT
team, is called in to deal with the situation. But the security force is
afraid of suffering any casualities, so instead of storming the building
and driving out the landlord, it stands outside, taking shots at his thugs,
and trashes the landlord's office and other properties.
This only heightens the landlord's resolve and he begins to drive the
tenants out faster and more violently. The SWAT team, without trained negotiators,
is reduced to shouting threats about what will happen if the landlord does
not surrender.
This allegory illustrates NATO's dilemma as it tries to deal with Yugolsav
President Slobodan Milosevic's efforts to clear the tenants out of the
Kosovo neighborhood in the city of Europe.
The alliance would like to be Europe's police force, gaining the legitimacy
and public trust that a private security firm simply does not possess.
However, NATO is woefully lacking in the breadth of capabilities that would
make this imagined role reality.
No effective police force is composed entirely of its SWAT team. The
job of crime fighting calls for a variety of approaches that produce a
safer community where residents can live and prosper without fear of a
thuggish few. Police walking the beat, neighborhood-watch patrols, community
outreach, summer basketball, efforts to rebuild the economy and other crime-prevention
activities form the mosaic that secures our cities. We need a similarly
sophisticated approach to European security. But today only the SWAT team
is ever considered.
Meanwhile mechanisms for lowering tensions and controlling hostilities
before they break into armed conflict, such as the Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe, are disregarded by a jealous NATO that sees
itself as the only viable peace keeper in a dangerous neighborhood.
The OSCE, a kind of community policing organization for Europe, has
an annual budget of only $40 million -- less then one tenth of one percent
of NATO's military spending. Because it can call on nothing more than ad
hoc, non-specialized observers during times of crisis, the conflict prevention
functions that might have prevented the nightmare in Kosovo never had a
chance.
At NATO's 50th anniversary summit in Washington later this month, it
is imperative that the alliance address the weaknesses in its relationship
with the OSCE and commit to truly supporting and enhancing its capabilities.
Without a clear focus on conflict prevention and early crisis management,
the NATO alliance will do little more than chase the Balkan crisis from
province to province, producing further tragic results.
Ultimately, preservation of the peace in Kosovo will not be the responsibility
of the NATO SWAT team. Only the "town council" possesses the
legitimacy and ability to take possession of the troubled apartment complex
and best serve the interests of the residents.
And only the United Nations can perform this role, by making the province
into a U.N. protectorate. NATO must show the imagination and willpower
that will enable such an option to succeed. Otherwise the neighborhood
will never attain the security it so desperately needs.
*Dan Plesch is the director, and Robert Bullock is a research associate
for the British American Security Information
Council, an international research organization based in London and
Washington.