WASHINGTON -- It's ironic that, having avoided the calamities predicted to occur because of the Y2K computer bug, the world is about to become a more dangerous place by the removal of one the safety measures taken to insure the smooth arrival of the new millennium.
Both the United States and Russia are planning to shut down their Center for Y2K Strategic Stability, a early warning facility they established to avert the possibility of an accidental or undetected deployment of their nuclear arsenals due of a computer error.
Based at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado, the Center went into operation on December 28. Staffed by military officers from both countries who were in contact with their respective military headquarters, it was designed to ensure that neither country could launched a surprise attack on the other at a time of heightened sensibilities from possible glitches related to the millennium-date rollover.
U.S. military officials note that the Center was particularly reassuring to the Russians, since their early-warning systems are dilapidated, unreliable and might not have been able to detect all launches.
It obviously worked -- the world remains intact. The only unexpected launches detected during the period were Russian Scud launches against rebel forces in Chechnya.
Now, however, it's due to shut down sometime around January 15.
The danger from an accidental or unintended deployment of nuclear weapons has long been recognized by both nations. In fact, the U.S. and Russia agreed at their Helsinki Summit in March, 1997, to establish a shared early warning center in Moscow to reduce this danger. Nearly three years later, however, the center is still not operational and it is unlikely to be for at least another year. Both sides have blamed the other for the delay.
John Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, joked last year that the world would actually be safer during the millennium-date rollover period if all missiles ceased to function because of Y2K problems. His joke hid the dangerous reality that, more than ten years after the end of the Cold War, the U.S. and Russia maintain thousands of strategic nuclear warheads, ready to be launched with only a few minutes' notice.
Faced with the potential danger posed by Y2K, both countries were able to come together to avert their mutual destruction. But now that the immediate Y2K threat has passed, the nuclear missiles in these two countries will once again be capable of being launched at a moment's notice, without any safeguards in place.
The Y2K Center should remain up and running. Closing it down is an act of folly. President Clinton and Russia's acting President Putin must keep this safety catch on their nuclear arsenals. They have made the world a safer place. They must not allow it to become a more dangerous one again.
Dan Plesch is director of the British American Security Information Council, an independent research organization that analyzes government policies on military and nuclear issues.