MOSCOW -- By the end of 2005, Russia's armed forces will be 20 percent smaller than they are today. Plans recently approved by the Security Council, chaired by President Vladimir Putin, call for the number of people in the military and other security agencies to be reduced by 600,000, including 470,000 military and 130,000 civilians personnel.
For years now, it has been clear that Russia could no longer afford to maintain its military force at its present size. The government hopes that this dramatic cutback in personnel will allow it to spend its limited resources on military training, maintenance of existing equipment and the purchase of new weapons.
If everything goes as planned, Russia should have a well-trained, mobile, compact, technologically advanced and effective fighting force by 2010.
That, at least, is the official view. However, many observers outside government remain skeptical that the goals can be achieved.
What nearly everyone agrees on is that drastic reforms are necessary. And while such reforms will be costly, there may never be a better economic time to carry them out.
Russia at the moment is benefiting from relatively high world oil prices. That means that the government is in the best position in years to pay for the compensation and pensions due the 600,000 who will be leaving government service.
In addition, current conditions within the military have become so intolerable that nearly everyone is ready for some type of reform. By some estimates, 70 percent of the current military budget goes merely to feed and clothe the force at its current level, with only 30 percent left for training and equipment.
Finally, while reforming the military has been a top government priority for years, Putin has displayed a particular interest in the problem. A successful reform program seems especially important for his administration.
What remains unclear at this point is what impact such reforms will ultimately have on Russia's nuclear capabilities.
What is apparent is that the current status of the Strategic Missile Force will be reduced and it will no longer be a separate branch of the armed forces. Some experts believe that this could lead to Russia eventually becoming some type of "intermediate" nuclear power. Under this scenario, Russia would remain more powerful than other nuclear states while acknowledging the United States' superiority, at least in terms of operational capabilities.
But in fact, that's just one of the possibilities under review by the Defense Ministry and the General Staff. The key dilemma they seem to be facing is striking the right balance between conventional and nuclear forces.
One side argues that nuclear weapons can't defend the nation against non-nuclear threats, such as those that might arise from a local conflict in the Balkans, for example. Therefore, the nation's conventional forces need to be reinforced and upgraded, they contend. A minimal strategic nuclear force is enough to provide an adequate deterrence.
But others argue that Russia can't afford to maintain conventional forces comparable with those of NATO. Current Western superiority in economic resources, population, non-nuclear weapons technologies and command-and-control systems simply makes parity out of the question. Under this argument, Russia's security relies on a robust strategic nuclear force.
Right now, no one's sure which side of the argument will prevail. For the general public, the only real question is whether the planned reduction will bring an end to the current despised conscription system.
What is clear is that Russia's military budget for 2000 was about $6 billion, or roughly 2 percent of U.S. military spending. Spending is expected to increase only slightly next year.
So, with neither a clear-cut defense policy nor adequate financial resources, independent analysts remain skeptical Russia will actually be able to accomplish its much-needed military reforms.
Vladimir Nikanorov is the press secretary of the office
of the Security Council of Russia. Yulia Zheglova, who covers
the military for Radio Voice of Russia, contributed to this piece.