© 1999 Global Beat Syndicate. All Rights Reserved.

Montenegro: The Next Crisis

By Zeljko Ivanovic
March 29, 1999
 
PODGORICA, Montenegro -- On Sunday, a newspaper here published by the pro-Slobodan Milosevic Social People's Party ran a cartoon showing two men in traditional Montenegrin garb carrying umbrellas to protect themselves from the NATO air strikes. One says to the other, "See how the West supports our reforms?" The other responds, "Oh, it invests in us every night, I would say."
 
For Montengrin president Milo Djukanovic, who has tried to implement democratic reforms and move closer to the West since his election in 1997, NATO's air attacks present a huge political challenge. Milosevic and his allies attack Djukanovic on daily basis, diminishing his achievements and mocking his attempts to build relations with the West. And with Serbia bearing the brunt of NATO's attacks as compared to this fellow federal unit of Yugoslavia, Montenegro's president also stands accused of betraying his Balkan brothers and collaborating with "enemies of ours."
 
The NATO air strikes are bringing to a head the conflict between Belgrade and the anti-Milosevic ruling coalition in Podgoirica. For example, the Montenegrin government so far has refused to follow Belgrade's lead in declaring a state of emergency, expelling foreign journalists or breaking its ties with the United States, Britain, France or Germany.
 
"The policy of isolation and conflict with the international community is not the future of our country and our people," according to a Montenegrin government statement. Instead, Djukanovic has emphasized the importance of continuing to build contacts and cooperation with the West.
 
Such views are unacceptable to the opposition Social People's party. It accuses the Montenegrin government of betraying Serbia by not breaking off diplomatic relations with those whom "are killing our children, brothers and friends, destroying our people and state."
 
So far, the Yugoslav Army has largely stayed out of the dispute between the two governments, but recently it has moved closer to Milosevic's position. Shortly before the initial NATO attack, Djukanovic said his government would ignore decisions made by the federal military leadership. Army headquarters in Podgorica responded by making it clear they would continue to follow orders by the military chiefs in Belgrade.
 
The army is now the only institution in Montenegro still under Belgrade's control. The Djukanovic government fears that Milosevic will use the war to diminish civilian authority in Montenegro. It may boil down to who will govern the republic: democratically elected local officials or the army.
 
For the time being, there's an uneasy truce between the two factions. The Montenegrin parliament recently adopted a compromise resolution declaring a "state of emergency and a war status" in the republic. It also said it would continue to work within the existing constitution. The resolution was seen as an attempt to stabilize the political situation and prevent a possible civil war. Many observers worry, however, that it failed to bridge the increasingly serious gaps between the two parties.
 
Milosevic's backers insist the resolution allows for undisturbed movements by the Yugolsav army in the republic. Djukanovic's bloc contends the resolution provides for business as usual. Late last week, the government issued a compulsory work order, designed to protect men with from being drafted into the Yugoslav army. The army responded by creating "war courts at the territory of the Second Army," and threatened to prosecute anyone who refuses the draft.
 
Right now, the war with the West seems to be helping Milosevic's anti-democratic forces here. If he's not forced to capitulate soon, Djukanovic and his democratic forces will have a hard time maintaining their positions in Montenegro.
 
Zeljko Ivanovic is a founder and a director of the only independent weekly in Montenegro, Vijesti.
 

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© 1999 Global Beat Syndicate. All Rights Reserved. The Global Beat Syndicate, a service of New York University's Center for War, Peace, and the News Media, provides editors with commentary and perspective articles on critical global issues from contributors around the world. For more information, check out http://www.nyu.edu/globalbeat/syndicate/.

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