February 8, 2001
PODGORICA, Montenegro -- After years of watching the other republics that once made up Yugoslavia strike out on their own, Montenegro, which along with Serbia is all that remains of the federation, is finding that obtaining its own independence an elusive goal.
This has come as something of surprise to many here in the capital. Because of his opposition to former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic has long enjoyed unconditional Western backing, especially during the war with Kosovo. Many here were confident that such support would translate into the West's backing a move for independence. But with Milosevic's ouster last fall, officials in the European Union and the United States have turned decidedly cool to the idea of Montenegro's attempt to withdraw from the federation.
Complicating matters is the fact that the population is almost
evenly divided between those favoring independence and those seeking
to preserve the current union with Serbia. A recent public opinion
survey found that 57 percent of
the population wants independence while 43 percent is opposed.
So, when the government late last year took the dramatic, if not unexpected, step of presenting Belgrade with a proposal to restructure the existing relationship between the two republics, it set off a political crisis that included the withdrawal of one of the main coalition partners from the government.
And that, in turn, has set off not merely a call for a referendum on the issue but new elections as well.
Both sides acknowledge that a referendum is necessary for independence. After all, officials in both Brussels and Washington have made it clear that they will only recognize "decisions made through a democratic procedure and through agreement of all participants."
But those who favor independence say an election is not needed. They fear the campaign will only dilute the drive toward independence. The "Serbia block" of parties here has argued that, given the current minority status of the government, parliamentary elections are needed to create a sense of legitimacy.
It was to deal with these polarized views, not to mention the West's attitudes, that Djukanovic proposed first election and then a referendum.
Right now, parliamentary elections appear most likely to be held sometime in April, with the referendum tentatively scheduled for June.
Naturally, officials in Belgrade have become actively involved in the issue. After all, President Vojislav Kostunica has staked his political future on the survival of the union between Serbia and Montenegro. He has proposed a "minimal federation" that calls for the creation of a modern and efficient central government, perhaps ruled by a chancellor, and substantial autonomy for the republics.
His proposals were warmly received as the basis for further talks by Montenegrians who favor continued ties with Serbia.
But pro-independence Montenegrins will have none of it. "What
Kostunica calls minimal federation is in fact a maximal federation,"
says Slobodan Blagojevic,
who covers constitutional issues for the newspaper Vijesti.
Both supporters and opponents of independence claim that the West will ultimately support their position, despite the fact that EU officials have recently stated that they see the future of Serbia and Montenegro within a framework of a federal constitutional structure. Other Western leaders have also expressed their support for Kostunica's federation proposal. And Yugoslav foreign minister Goran Svilanovic says that, unlike the previous U.S. administration, the Bush administration "sees the stability of the Balkans through the preservation of FRY, without new borders and new states."
Opponents also argue that, by leaving the federation, Montenegro would destabilize the entire region, thereby losing international sympathies and, more importantly, aid.
The proponents of independence claim that the United States and the EU will accept whatever Montenegrin citizens decide as long as the process is democratic. Still, the path to independence, which once seemed so smooth, suddenly seems much more difficult than expected.
Zeljko Ivanovic is a member of the executive board of Vijesti,
an independent daily newspaper in Podgorica.