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In the Philippines several months ago, an American visitor remarked to a Filipino business executive that talk about ousting President Joseph Estrada seemed to have quieted down. "Yes, all that talk has calmed down," the executive said, "but that doesn't mean it has gone away." He turned out to be painfully right. Months of murmuring against President Estrada have erupted into chaos that threatens to turn the Philippines into another Indonesia, adding to political instability in Southeast Asia and hampering an already lagging regional recovery from the Asian financial crisis that began in 1997. For the industrial nations of Asia, North America, and to a lesser extent Western Europe, the upheaval in the Philippines on the eastern flank of the South China Sea, coupled with the turmoil in Indonesia on the southern flank, could jeopardize the vital sea lanes in the South China Sea. It is a virtual canal through which passes more shipping than through the Suez and Panama Canals combined. "The nation is not only in distress. It is sinking," said Teodoro Benigno, once a spokesman for former President Corazon Aquino, in a column in the Philippine Star. Another prominent columnist reached by e-mail in Manila, Amando Doronila of the Philippine Inquirer, lamented: "The Philippines is probably following in the turbulent footsteps of Indonesia." Indonesia has been wracked with economic troubles for three years, with corruption that forced former President Suharto to resign in 1998, with continuous wrangling among political leaders, with disputes between civilian authorities and military leaders, and with several violent separatist movements. On the Philippines, conversations in Manila, Cebu, with Filipinos in Hawaii, and with American business executives and officials informed about the Philippines all pointed to an inevitable conclusion: The cause of the revolt was a wide perception that President Estrada is incompetent, corrupt, and a playboy who has carried his flamboyant ways as a movie actor into Malacanang, the presidential mansion. The reasons for the consternation in the Philippines was underscored by President Estrada himself during a large dinner when he visited Honolulu recently. The president gave a nearly incoherent speech in which he mocked recent meetings with Chinese and Japanese leaders, randomly switched from English into Tagalog to leave the American audience in the dark, and asserted that he had corruption and terrorism "under control." More than one person leaving the dinner was overheard to mutter: "Bizarre." The eruption in Manila began several weeks ago when the Governor Luis Singson of a northern province accused President Estrada of taking $11 million in payoffs from illegal gambling. Immediately, the leader of the influential Roman Catholic Church, Jaime Cardinal Sin, called on President Estrada to resign. In a nation where family connections count, Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, daughter of former president Diosdado Macapagal, resigned as Secretary of Social Welfare but retained her post as vice-president to succeed President Estrada if he resigns. Other powerful politicians broke with the president. Senator Ramon Magsaysay Jr., son of perhaps the most popular president since independence in 1946, asserted: "We have become the laughing stock of the world." Former President Corazon Aquino called on President Estrada to step down. People took to the streets with signs demanding "resign." Opposition political leaders filed a bill of impeachment even though the president's party controls the Philippine Congress. Business groups withdrew their support as the peso plummeted to a record low in value against the dollar, the stock market hit a two year low, and economic advisers cautioned foreign investors to avoid the Philippines. In rebuttal, the President asserted that he would not resign. "My conscience is clear," he said. "I am not hiding anything from our people." Even so, he canceled a trip to South Korea for an Asia-Europe summit meeting and over last weekend appeared on national television to apologize. After a career as a movie actor, President Estrada was elected in 1998 by appealing to the poor; about one third of the Philippine population lives in poverty. Almost immediately, however, he was roundly criticized for appointing his family and friends to lucrative positions in government. Allegations of bribery and payoffs became commonplace. In particular, critics pointed to what they considered to be the president's inept economic management and a routine of late night parties and equally late arrivals to work in the morning. Last winter, rumors flew that critics led by former president Fidel Ramos and his national security adviser, Jose Almonte, were seeking to revive the "people power" that drove dictator Ferdinand Marcos from office in 1986. Filipino political observers said, however, that those opponents had second thoughts, asserting that forcing President Estrada out by extra-legal means would damage the nation's fragile democracy. Instead, they looked to Congressional elections in November 2001 to produce a majority that would impeach the president. Meantime, muttering continued at social or business gatherings. The president was criticized for failing to bring drug smuggling, much of it from China, under control. The Philippines, according to a report from U.S. Central Intelligence, has become a transit point for heroin and crystal methamphetamines. Some stays there while more is shipped to the U.S. Critics condemned orders to the armed forces to employ naval gunfire and air strikes in an attempt to rescue hostages held by Muslim insurgents on the southern island of Jolo. The attacks resulted mostly in civilian deaths, destroyed villages, and few releases. American military officers, noting that the Philippines had declined offers of U.S. training, were dismayed. "That's not the way you do it," said one, asserting that specially-trained, stealthy commandos should have been used. Allowing Libya to pay an estimated $25 million to the Muslim rebels as ransom to obtain the release of hostages was seen by many Filipinos as a way to funnel funds to terrorists. The Philippine Star printed 90 enraged letters to the editor in mid-September. "We allowed ourselves to be used by Libya in propagating terrorism," wrote Rolly Croistobal. Then Governor Singson, who had been a political ally of President Estrada, evidently decided that enough was enough. That broke the dam and loosed the flood of recriminations and cries for President Estrada's departure. Richard Halloran, formerly with The New York Times as a foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington, is an Adjunct Senior Fellow in the Asia program of the Center for War, Peace, and the News Media. Reprints rights for this article may be obtained from him in Honolulu, telephone 808-395-0511; fax 808-396-4095; e-mail oranhall@hawaii.rr.com Return to Global Beat Home Page
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