 Global Reporting Network Publications |
Taipei--The new president of the Republic of China on Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian, has devised a comprehensive strategy intended to maintain his island's separation from the Peoples Republic of China while averting a war with Beijing. The main element in this walk on a razor's edge is a vigorous effort to enhance a sense of identity among the people of Taiwan, especially in revising education to emphasize Taiwanese history and culture. President Chen will stress the progress of democracy in Taiwan and the conversion of Taiwan's economy into a "green silicon island." He further seeks to extend Taiwan's diplomatic reach and military power. Mr. Chen, who was inaugurated on May 20, has not articulated his strategy in public and is not likely to do so as he tries to avoid provoking Beijing, which sees Taiwan as a breakaway province. An outline of the strategy can be discerned, however, in a book Mr. Chen wrote last year, in his subtly defiant inaugural address, and in conversations with close advisers and political analysts in Taipei. The Chen strategy, according to analysts in Taipei, is intended to counter what they see as a campaign of psychological warfare calculated to browbeat Taiwan into submission with military threats, political pressure, diplomatic isolation, economic disruption, subversion, and propaganda. "China has had more than 2000 years of experience with psychological warfare," said Ni Lexiong, a senior fellow at the Institute of National Defense in Shanghai during a recent visit to Hawaii. "The Peoples Liberation Army has recently brought that up to date." At the moment, Beijing seems to be vacillating in its attacks on Taipei, one day sending belligerent messages via the official press, the next day a softer message through officials speaking in public. Many observers believe China's main thrust will not be decided until Chinese political and military leaders hold their annual meeting in the seaside resort of Beidaihe in August. Paradoxically, danger will arise if President Chen's strategy is successful. That will most likely frustrate leaders in Beijing and may cause them to launch a military attack on Taiwan. In turn, that will probably bring the U.S. and possibly Japan and South Korea into the fray. The U.S. is committed to a peaceful resolution of the dispute between Taiwan and China; Japan is committed, under new defense guidelines, to assist the U.S. in such hostilities; and South Korea is the station of 37,000 U.S. troops. "Taiwan does not sail on smooth seas," Mr. Chen wrote in his book entitled Son of Taiwan. "Taiwan cannot afford to be quixotic concerning any opponent, nor can we let them dictate our position. Rather, we must anticipate all their possible reactions and formulate strategic countermeasures." The critical component of this strategy is to expand the Taiwanese sense of identity that has flowered in recent years. That was evident in Mr. Chen's inaugural ceremonies when almost all of the music, dancers, and special guests were Taiwanese rather than Chinese and the national anthem was sung by a popular singer, A Mei, who is an aborigine. In his address, Mr. Chen drew a distinction between Taiwanese and Chinese cultures and applauded grassroots organizations "working to explore and preserve the history, culture, geography and ecology of their localities." He urged his compatriots to "create a new milieu of a cultural Taiwan in a modern century." Members of Mr. Chen's Democratic Progressive Party said to watch for conspicuous changes in Taiwan's educational system. They said students would be taught more Taiwanese and less Chinese history and more about Taiwan's traditions, art, and literature. Over the past decade, Taiwanese scholars and writers have begun to flourish; before, they were repressed by the Nationalist government dominated by Chinese who fled from the mainland in 1949. Parris Chang, a member of the National Legislature, said in an interview: "The polls show that more and more people now think of themselves as Taiwanese or as Taiwanese and Chinese. The new administration will put that into education and textbooks. Children have got to be taught more about Taiwanese history, that they are not just a part of China." Mr. Chen's defiance of China came in the title of his address, "Taiwan stands up," and in repeating that theme three times in the text. The phrase echoed China's communist leader, Mao Zedong, who told a political conference in Beijing on Sept. 21, 1949: "Ours will no longer be a nation subject to insult and humiliation. We have stood up." Then, on Oct. 1, 1949, Mao proclaimed the Peoples Republic of China from atop Tiananmen, the Gate of Heavenly Peace, saying: "The Chinese people have stood up." In an effort to win more international recognition, President Chen plans to expand on the flexible diplomacy of former President Lee Teng-hui. Priority will be given to asserting that Taiwan has become democratic, with three direct elections in the past four years in which 76 to 83 percent of the eligible voters turned out. In addition, Taiwan has accomplished perhaps that most difficult of political actions, the peaceful transfer of power from one party to another. In his address, Mr. Chen said former President Lee "deserves our highest praise and heartfelt honor for his promotion of democratic reforms." Economically, Mr. Chen does not propose radical changes but to promote leading units in both government and private industry, revive lagging departments, abolish redundancy, and attack those that harm economic development. All this, he says, should lead to sustained progress. President Chen's government will be even more active diplomatically than that of former President Lee. Taiwan has diplomatic relations with only about 30 nations, the rest being conducted by quasi-official organizations such as the American Institute in Taiwan, an embassy in all but name. A DPP legislator, Lee Ying-yuan, said in an interview: "We will strengthen legislative diplomacy, or parliamentary relations. You will also see human rights diplomacy, environmental diplomacy, cultural diplomacy, sports diplomacy, and city-to-city diplomacy." National security, President Chen says in his book, "outranks all other issues in importance." He says, therefore, that "Taiwan must foster the concept of deep-level defense" with augmented reconnaissance, assessments of Chinese military deployments, and intelligence exchange with nations in the region. In sum, President Chen seeks to play for time in hopes that China will less hostile. He will continue to speak calmly to Beijing but will not concede to its demands. "You can say a lot of nice words," said a seasoned political analyst, "but you don't have to do anything." Richard Halloran, formerly with The New York Times as a foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington, is an Adjunct Senior Fellow in the Asia program of the Center for War, Peace, and the News Media. Reprints rights for this article may be obtained from him in Honolulu, telephone 808-395-0511; fax 808-396-4095; e-mail oranhall@hawaii.rr.com Return to Global Beat Home Page
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