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Dr. Alexei G. Arbatov, Deputy Chair of the Defense
Committee of the Russian State Duma, spoke to a group of journalists
from his office in Moscow for approximately one hour.
Relations between the United States and Russia have seriously deteriorated in recent years and are unlikely to improve anytime soon, according to Alexei Arbatov, a leading liberal and member of the State Duma. In an interview organized by the Center for War, Peace and the News Media at New York University and the National Press Institute of Russia Wednesday, Arbatov said that "the initial hopes and plans of the early '90s are dead. Relations have been severely damaged during recent years. And while Russia is not completely innocent in this -- it did some things wrong -- the major fault lies with the West, and the United States in particular." "The West has destroyed those hopes" for greater cooperation and they're unlikely to be restored "in the foreseeable future," he said during a telephone interview from his office in the Russian Duma in Moscow. Arbatov dismissed the notion that the apparent warm relations between President Clinton and former Russian President Boris Yeltsin were somehow indicative of an alliance between the two nations. "I cannot agree that the United States and Russia were allies," he said. "The U.S. public and the Russian public do not see themselves as allies. They look at each other with suspicion, mistrust and hostility." In large part, Arbatov blames the deterioration in relations on NATO's war against Yugoslavia over Kosovo and the continued pressure from the West over Russia's actions in Chechnya. He pointed to two recent highly-publicized changes in his nation's military policy -- a renewed emphasis on Russia's possible first-use of nuclear weapons if its security is threatened, and the designation of NATO and the United States as threats to its security -- as clear signs of the new foreign policy likely to be implemented by acting president Vladimir Putin, who is expected to easily win election as president next month. "Before, Russia had no enemies," Arbatov said. "Now, it is clearly stated that one of the primary threats to Russian security is the policies of the United States, which is keen on establishing its position as the world's sole superpower and expanding its interests around the world." The new military doctrines outlined by Putin earlier this year also demonstrate that Russia views NATO as a threat to its own and international peace and security. "NATO expansion and its use of force in Yugoslavia are seen as primary threats to Russian security," Arbatov said. "NATO's coming closer to Russia's border is seen as a definite threat. And its use of force in Yugoslavia, in clear violation of the United Nations' charter as well as various bilateral agreement with Russia, shows the new face of NATO." In addition, Putin's policies make clear that Russia will feel free to use military forces within its own borders, as in Chechnya, to resolve domestic problems, such as suspected terrorism or secessionist insurgencies. Previously, the use of the Russian army inside the country had been prohibited. Indeed, Arbatov noted, it is still technically outlawed by the Russian constitution. While some in the Clinton administration have downplayed the importance of these policy changes, some of which date back to 1993 and 1997, Arbatov points out that what's different now is that "they are actually being implemented and put into practice. Funding for strategic forces are being increased. Funding for conventional weapons is being increased," he noted. Arbatov speculated that some in the United States might be trying to "produce the impression that it's business as usual. Otherwise, they'll be seen as provoking Russia, which is already hostile to the United States," he said. "There is a serious new rift between the United States and Russia -- and it is due to Western and NATO policies," he said. Arbatov emphasized the profound effect of the West's military actions in Yugoslavia on Russian perceptions of the use of military force. "For three years after the first war in Chechnya, which ended in 1996, there was a psychological taboo against the use of military force in cases of ethnic conflict," Arbatov said. "But NATO aggression in Yugoslavia removed that barrier and changed the Russian psychological climate with regards to the use of force, " he said. "Russia learned its lessons well from the conflict in Kosovo," Arbatov said. "You can use force and disregard international legal frameworks. You can disregard the impact of collateral damage on civilians. You can use a massive amount of force against a foe. And you can control the mass media. These are the lessons Russia learned, either consciously or subconsciously, from NATO actions in Yugoslavia," he said. "NATO's actions in Yugoslavia inspired Russia's actions in Chechnya," Arbatov said. "It produced a deep psychological wound" and changed the way the nation viewed the use of force to obtain a political goal. If NATO claims the right to use force against a sovereign state, then we are all the more entitled to use force to resolve a domestic issues when we are challenged," he said. "Moreover, if NATO can use its force indiscriminately, they don't have the right to teach us how to conduct operations within our own country." "The change in NATO's strategy -- by legitimizing the use of force outside its own area -- has affected our government's policies. Russia has the right to take whatever countermeasures it deems necessary to protect its own security," he said. And the lessons were learned not merely by the Russian leadership but the general public was well, Arbatov contends. "The public was ready for the use of force this time largely because of what happened in the Balkans," he said. Meanwhile, efforts by Western leaders to coerce Russia to change its policies are not only ineffective but are actually counterproductive, he warned. "Russia is not Yugoslavia," Arbatov said. "The West cannot force Russia to change its policies. Instead, the greater the pressure, the greater the resistance." And comments such as those by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, calling for an end to the fighting in Chechnya, only make it more difficult for those within Russia who oppose the government's current policy. "It makes us look like puppets," said Arbatov, who is a leading member of the liberal Yabloko party, which opposed the ground war in Chechnya, and has a long history of working to improve U.S. - Russian relations. Indeed, Arbatov took particular exception to Albright's comments during a visit to Moscow this week. "Albright is seen as the one person more than anyone else who has made relations between Russia and the U.S. worse by advocating NATO expansion and pushing the war in Yugoslavia, " he said. "When she comes and lectures us about the use of force, it's seen as a deliberate provocation." Arbatov said the growing rift between the United States and Russia will make negotiations on such issues as nuclear arms reductions or U.S. plans to modify the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) treaty all the more difficult. "Russian policy postulates the inviolability of the ABM treaty. It is the basis for further progress on the START II and START III negotiations. Nuclear deterrence is now much more important," he said. He said he believes it unlikely that Putin would submit the START II agreement to the Duma for ratification in the near future. For relations to improve between the two nations, Arbatov said the United States needs to "stop putting public pressure on Russia over Chechnya; drop the linkage between IMF financial assistance and Russian policies; halt the expansion of NATO eastward for the foreseeable future; and restructure the peacekeeping operations in Kosovo so that Serbs can return and live in peace." For any progress to be made on arms control, Arbatov said that the United States "must conduct negotiations not from a position of strength and recognize Russia's legitimate concerns regarding its security." Arbatov said Russia is committed to Chechnya remaining part of the Federation and that popular support for the war remains strong, despite reports of increased casualties. He said the government hopes that once the fighting has ended, Russia will be able to win the support of the local population by providing humanitarian assistance and establishing law and order within the republic. The government believes it will be able to win over "Chechens who are sick and tired of the outlaws who have run the republic." Arbatov said the cost of rebuilding Chechnya once the fighting stops is estimated at $20 billion. Paul Tooher is the assistant managing editor for the Providence Journal in Providence, R.I., and the interim editor of the Global Beat Syndicate.
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