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The U.S. Navy has a salute for a sailor when he leaves for a new billet: "May you have fair winds and following seas." But for Joseph W. Prueher, the retired admiral who is the prospective American ambassador to China, the winds will be howling and the seas stormy if he is nominated by President Clinton as has been reported, and is confirmed by the Senate. Not since the Korean War, when Americans and Chinese fought each other from 1950 to 1953, have Sino-U.S. relations been so turbulent. Quarrels between Beijing and Washington erupt almost by the day. Last week, President Clinton proposed to Congress that China's trade status be renewed under the Normal Trade Relations act, known before as Most Favored Nation. That will surely trigger off vigorous criticism on Capitol Hill and an equally vehement response from Beijing. In addition, Chinese President Jiang Zemin has told Clinton that China is not interested in reopening discussions on China's admission to the World Trade Organization because Sino-U.S. relations are not good. The Chinese are angry because the U.S. has been blocking Beijing's admission to the WTO until Beijing removes what Washington considers to be protectionist trade barriers. Further, the Justice Department in Washington is reportedly considering an indictment against a Chinese company for alleged violation of U.S. export laws by diverting civilian equipment to military use. That is almost certain to provoke a heated response from Beijing. Earlier, unanimous resolutions passed by the House and Senate condemned Beijing for killing unknown hundreds of protesters in Tiananmen Square ten years ago on Friday [June 4]. The Chinese news agency, Xinhua, charged that "the US Congress brazenly and peremptorily interfered in China's internal affairs." Those resolutions came in the wake of the raging dispute over the Congressional report on Chinese intelligence operations in the U.S. Before that, the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade triggered off a Chinese trashing the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. The waters in Washington are so roiled that even the search for a new envoy to replace Ambassador James Sasser, who planned many months ago to resign, has reflected the disarray in China policy. The position was turned down by five or six unnamed politicians and diplomats, a silent critique of Clinton because rarely in the American tradition does anyone decline a request by the president to serve. According to Washington officials, Prueher was offered the job about a month ago after rumors of his appointment had circulated for many months through Washington, the Pacific Command in Hawaii, and East Asia. The staff of the National Security Council then leaked word of the nomination, evidently as a trial balloon. But, as the Washington Post reported, the White House committed a gaffe by failing to obtain Beijing's agreement to the nomination in accord with diplomatic procedure. This could upset Beijing even more. Prueher's critics in Congress and the Pentagon have contended that he became too cozy with Chinese military leaders during his three years as commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific even, though his message to them was explicit: Do not underestimate U.S. military capabilities. White House spokesmen did not deny the leaks but neither did they confirm them. The latest word is that President Clinton plans to wait until the furor over Chinese spying dies down before announcing Prueher's nomination. Then the nomination will go to the Senate, where Jesse Helms, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and a harsh critic of Clinton's China policy, will scrutinize both Prueher and administration policy. In Senate hearings, Prueher will most likely advocate a policy balanced between respect for China and unmistakable U.S. strength. "I think our approach needs to be one of respect, and also of strength, in dealing and working and moving forward with the Chinese," he said in an interview before leaving Hawaii in February. His respect for China, he said, came from the challenges of governance -- providing food, clothing, shelter, jobs, and energy for 1.2 billion people. "I think it's going to be more difficult in the months ahead," Prueher said, because many economists estimate that China's growth rate has been about 5.5 percent instead of the nearly 8 percent claimed by Beijing. Those economists say 8 percent is needed to keep unemployment at a tolerable rate. If China's economy crumbles, according to Prueher, that would generate "great problems with stability." As Chinese leaders seek to stabilize the nation, he said, "that bleeds into human rights, it bleeds into control. It's a dilemma and that creates a problem with the United States." Added to China's economic problems at home are those with Washington, which is angry about the $57 billion trade deficit with China caused by Beijing's protectionist barriers. The strength on which Prueher would rely comes from U.S. military power. In 1996, he recommended and Washington approved the dispatch of two aircraft carriers to the waters east of Taiwan after China fired missiles toward that island, considered a breakaway province by Beijing. In addition, Prueher cultivated professional relations with leaders of China's Peoples Liberation Army, for two reasons: To assure them that the U.S. does not intend to contain China and to caution them against military miscalculation, the greatest cause of war. He made these points in private conversations and public pronouncements. Prueher has also been adamant in urging the U.S. and its allies in East Asia to build a regional defense against expanding Chinese and North Korean missile forces. The Chinese have been equally adamant in opposing the plan because it would render most of their missiles obsolete. "Theater Missile Defense is a military requirement," Prueher said. "We would be irresponsible as nations develop missiles and we send our troops and ships and our aircraft around the world. We are going to do Theater Missile Defense. We will do it in the Pacific." Prueher's experience in Asia goes back to his duty in 1963 as an exchange midshipman aboard British warships operating out of Singapore. He later flew more than 50 sorties in fighter planes in the war in Vietnam. As a graduate student in 1973, he took several courses on Chinese affairs while studying for an M.A. at George Washington University in Washington, D.C. It has been in the last three years, however, that the lean, intense officer with little taste for small talk has become a serious student of China. He has read Chinese strategists from Sun Tzu of the fifth century BC to Mao Zedong in the 20th century, talked with scholars on China from Stanford to Harvard, and even picked the brains of itinerant journalists. This has complemented a half-dozen trips to China and a flood of intelligence reports flowing across his desk. "I've read quite a few books on the Chinese view of their place in the world, the Middle Kingdom," he said, "and I guess I'm one who tries to study to learn more about Chinese culture as an influence on their decision-making, more than Communism." In the concept of the Middle Kingdom, China sees itself as a dominant power with other states submitting tribute. Prueher said "the Chinese believe they are the hub in the region." Therefore, they "would like to have everyone in the region have to have China's approval for whatever they might want to do." Prueher was cautious about the future of Taiwan. Asked whether the U.S. would help defend Taiwan against an unprovoked attack by China, Prueher replied: "That's not my question to answer." Elected U.S. officials would decide that, he said. He added, however, that in meetings with the PLA and in unofficial discussions with military leaders of Taiwan, "all of us agree that bringing the China-Taiwan issue to a military type of confrontation is a no-winner. That path doesn't take anybody anywhere any of us wants to go." If it comes to hostilities, he said, "all of us think that we would really have made some bad errors in judgment."
*Richard Halloran, formerly with The New York Times as
a foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in
Washington, writes about Asia from Honolulu. For reprint rights,
please contact him by phone at 808-395-0511, fax 808-396-4095,
or e-mail: oranhall@hawaii.rr.com Return to Global Beat Home Page Nuclear Watch | Balkan Conflicts | East Asian Security | EU Integration & Enlargement | Middle East | NATO Expansion | Nuclear Weapons and Proliferation | South Asian Security | U.S. Defense Policy | Publications | Events | Experts Directory | Links Directory |
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