Global Beat:A Vote for Independence and Democracy: Taiwan's Election Complicate US-Asian Politics

A Vote for Independence and Democracy: Taiwan's Election Complicate US-Asian Politics By Richard Halloran, Global Beat Issue Brief, December 11, 1998 The outcome of the elections in Taiwan on December 5 seems certain to intensify the already dangerous confrontation between that island nation and mainland China, and to complicate United States relations with both. The Nationalist Party, known as the Kuomintang or KMT, increased its hold on the national legislature and won the mayor's office in Taipei, the second highest elective office on the island. In the city of Tainan, 77 percent of the voters in a poll said they did not want Taiwan to be governed by mainland China. Altogether, the elections rendered a vote of confidence in President Lee Teng-hui's policy of maintaining Taiwan's independence in all but name and seeking greater international recognition, including membership in international organizations, even as it shuns a formal declaration of independence. Chinese leaders in Beijing, who claim that Taiwan is a breakaway province that rightfully should be part of China, cannot be happy with those results. An American specialist in Chinese affairs said: "They see Taiwan slipping into independence a little more every day and they can't do anything about it." Moreover, the elections were a victory for democracy in Taiwan. Some 80 percent of Taiwan's voters turned out to cast ballots in races for 176 seats in the national legislature, the mayoralty of Taipei, and many other local races. This turnout, coupled with a 76 percent voting rate two years ago for Taiwan's first direct presidential election, is clear evidence of democracy taking root in Taiwan. That, in turn, is likely to muster more popular support for Taiwan in the U.S., Japan, Australia and other democracies. Voters in democratic nations tend to oppose authoritarian regimes that try to subjugate other democratic people, especially when those people make clear that they are seeking self-determination. Taiwan's march toward a separate identity and democracy has not pleased Beijing, which sent dozens of observers to Taiwan to watch the election. After four days of studied silence, Beijing said on Wednesday that "separatists" in Tainan were "playing with fire" with their referendum opposing unification with the mainland. A senior official said divisive forces in Taiwan have undertaken an "Illegal, invalid, and futile attempt" to change Taiwan's status through a referendum. The election results mirrored poll after poll in recent years, which have shown that a majority of Taiwanese, especially in the younger generation, consider Taiwan and not China to be their homeland. Large blocs have opted either for the ambiguous status quo of separation from the mainland or have favored clear-cut independence at some undefined time. Only small numbers say they desire to see Taiwan become part of China while it remains in autocratic communist hands. In specific races, the KMT candidate for mayor of Taipei, former Minister of Justice Ma Ying-jeou, won with 51 percent of the votes compared to 46 percent for the Democratic Progressive Party's candidate, incumbent Mayor Chen Shui-bian. Since Taiwan has streamlined its government by doing away with the provincial government, the mayor of Taipei has become the second highest elected executive officer in the land. In the legislative elections, the KMT won 55 percent of the seats in a Legislative Yuan that has been expanded to 225 seats from 176 seats while the opposition DPP will have only 31 percent. Smaller parties will hold the rest. Like Beijing, the Clinton Administration has maintained a studied silence about the election, with no comment from the White House or State Department. Even so, President Clinton showed before the election began to show new backing for Taiwan, with which the U.S. does not have diplomatic relations but has strong unofficial ties. Beijing has vehemently criticized all of the Administration's recent moves. This support is a marked change since June, when the president slipped out a new policy toward China and Taiwan while in Shanghai. He said: "We don't support independence for Taiwan, or two Chinas, or one Taiwan-one China. And we don't believe that Taiwan should be a member in any organization for which statehood is a requirement." The President had hardly arrived back home, however, when he was sharply repudiated by the Congress. The Senate voted 92-0 for a resolution reaffirming support for Taiwan. The House of Representatives passed a similar resolution with only one dissenting vote. Since then, the Clinton Administration has backed away from the President's blunder in Shanghai. The Secretary of Energy, Bill Richardson, went to Taiwan to address a meeting of energy executives and to call on President Lee. In Washington, President Clinton met with the Dalai Lama, the exiled leader of Tibet who seeks Tibetan independence or at least autonomy within China. About the same time, Taiwan's military chief of staff, General Tang Fei, met in Washington with Secretary of Defense William Cohen to discuss security issues and particularly whether Taiwan would be included in a plan to build a theater missiles defense or TMD in the Western Pacific. The U.S. has reiterated its intention to continue selling enough arms to Taiwan to permit the island to defend itself against invasion. The Ministry of Defense in Taipei is considering buying four American destroyers that would be equipped with high-tech Aegis air-missile and anti-aircraft defensive systems. In a shift in nuance, U.S. trade representatives have said that Taiwan should be admitted to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on its own merits without waiting for mainland China to join. Before, the U.S. had indicated it would support a plan under which China would be admitted first. Taiwan, however, has met the requirements for admission while China has not. The U.S. Congress, which has tended to favor good relations with Taiwan despite Beijing's objections, closed its recent session with several actions favoring Taiwan. One provision calls for the Pentagon to report by February 1, 1999, on the balance of power between mainland Chinese and Taiwanese forces; a finding that Taiwan needs better arms to counter a Chinese threat may lead to more U.S. arms sales. The Congress also urged the Administration to back the entry of Taiwan into the World Health Organization (WHO) despite President Clinton's statement in Shanghai opposing Taiwan's membership in an international organization for which statehood is a requirement. Further, the Congress has supported Taiwan's membership in the WTO. *Richard Halloran, formerly with The New York Times in Asia and Washington, writes about Asia from Honolulu. He is a consultant to the Center for War, Peace, and the News Media, and a regular contributor to the Global Beat. For reprint rights, please contact him at tel: 808-395-0511, fax 808-396-4095, or e-mail: oranhall@compuserve.com Return to Global Beat Home Page Nuclear Watch | Balkan Conflicts | East Asian Security | EU Integration & Enlargement | Middle East | NATO Expansion Nuclear Weapons and Proliferation | South Asian Security | U.S. Defense Policy | Publications | Events | Experts Directory | Links Directory | About the GRN |