BEIJING - In preparing to receive President Clinton later this month, Chinese authorities have out-maneuvered the White House on several points that, taken together, indicate the Chinese will have the upper hand when the critical issues of Tienanmen, Taiwan, and trade are discussed. Knowledgeable American, Chinese, Japanese, and Taiwanese political observers suggested the White House has acquiesced because no one in the Administration's top level has had much experience in negotiating with China. Said a Chinese scholar with government connections: "The Clinton people are not aware of how the Chinese will manipulate this visit. They don't have a clue." Sighed an American official with long experience in Asia: "Clinton's going to kowtow all over Beijing." American business executives in Beijing, initially eager to take part in the visit, say they are backing away now because they fear the president will agree to a deal that will immediately come under critical scrutiny in Asia and the U.S. The President himself appears to have abdicated responsibility for arranging the visit. Questioned during a press conference with President Kim Dae Jung of Korea, Mr. Clinton said: "I am going to be the guest of the Chinese ....they should be designing the terms of the arrival ceremony, not me." This assessment of pitfalls awaiting Mr. Clinton in China was pieced together from officials and private analysts who asked not to be named because they would risk political retribution or international repercussions.
During negotiations over Mr. Clinton's visit, the Chinese asked that Mr. Clinton arrive in June. At first, the White House said the President could not go before the November mid-term elections. Then the political heat got turned up by potential sex scandals and White House officials arranged to get the President out of Washington in March to Africa, in April to Latin America, in May to Europe, and now June to China. In Beijing, President Jiang and other leaders have been eager to end controversy over the Tienanmen incident by asserting that their handling of the dissidence was right. "China's Communist Party and government have made a correct decision," Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao asserted earlier this month. The Chinese plan to have Mr. Clinton's appearance in Tienanmen Square signal that he agrees and thus help to bring symbolic closure to this sorry chapter in China's history. On another point, Clinton officials said the President planned to stop over in Tokyo either on the way to China or on the way back. No, the Chinese said, Mr. Clinton would come to China and return to the U.S. without a stopping anywhere. They insisted because President Jiang had gone directly to the U.S. and returned home last year and Mr. Clinton must do the same to put China and America on a even playing field. Altogether, Americans experienced in Asia expressed concern over how Mr. Clinton's visit to China would be seen in Japan. They feared that damage has already been done even though Japanese diplomats have sought to play down the snub, saying they "understand" the President's time constraints. American and allied "Asia hands" also had misgivings over the way the trip would be viewed in the rest of Asia. Following Mr. Jiang's procession through the U.S. last fall, Mr. Clinton's trip could only add Beijing's crusade to revive the concept of the Middle Kingdom in which China is Asia's dominant power. Not that President Jiang will have a free hand with Mr. Clinton. The Chinese leader must quell a raging debate between leaders of the People's Liberation Army, who demand that China confront the U.S., and the foreign and economic ministries that see good relations with the U.S. to be in China's interest. In particular, Mr. Jiang cannot afford to anger senior military officers as they hold the key to power despite repeated protestations that they will be guided by the Communist Party. The PLA takes a hard line on Taiwan and has called Chinese diplomats "traitors" for what the PLA considers a soft attitude toward the U.S. Thus, Mr. Clinton can expect tough words on Taiwan, which Beijing considers to be a breakaway province. Chinese leaders have said repeatedly in recent weeks that the future of Taiwan "is the most important and most sensitive core issue in the relations between China and the United States." Add in issues of human rights, the nuclear arms race in South Asia, continuing tensions on the Korean peninsula, Asia's economic turmoil, and Sino-U.S. trade disputes, and the agenda becomes daunting. Whether Mr. Clinton will be ready for it remains to be seen.
Richard Halloran, formerly with The New York Times as a foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington, DC, is an adjunct fellow at the Center for War, Peace, and the News Media who writes about security issues in Asia and U.S. relations with Asia from Honolulu. For reprint rights, he can be reached by telephone at 808-395-0511, by fax at 808-396-4095, and by e-mail at oranhall@compuserve.com Return to Global Beat Home Page Nuclear Watch | East Asian Security | Economic & Monetary Union | NATO Expansion | Nuclear Weapons and Proliferation | U.S. Defense Policy | Publications | Events | |
