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Former U.S. Ambassador compares victory Global Beat Issue Brief No. 23 December 18, 1997 In a December 18 telephone news briefing sponsored by the Center for War, Peace, and the News Media, Donald Gregg, U.S. ambassador to South Korea from 1989-93 and a CIA specialist in Asia for 30 years, compared the "surprising" election of Kim Dae Jung to the election of South African president Nelson Mandela. Because Kim's "strength, tenacity, and intelligence" give him the potential to strengthen South Korea's economy as well as its relationship with North Korea, the next five years could prove "the most significant in Korean history," said Gregg. Gregg, now Chairman of the Korea Society in New York, acknowledged that the South Korean establishment views Kim with limited enthusiasm, and that the U.S. business community may harbor suspicions as well. But Gregg maintained that relatively low expectations will actually work to Kim's advantage. The key, he said, will be close cooperation between the incoming and outgoing regimes, and efforts by Kim to build bridges to the establishment. He can do that, Gregg said, by quickly making a good-faith effort to implement the economic changes stipulated under the recent loan package from the International Monetary Fund. Gregg expects Kim to make those changes. Kim faces at least two immediate challenges on the economic front, according to Gregg. First is the lengthy transition period; inauguration of the new president is not until February 25. Yet the IMF bailout plan demands fundamental changes to the South Korean economy even sooner. Gregg dismissed suggestions that the transition timetable might be advanced. He stressed instead the need for close cooperation between the President-elect and the outgoing Kim Young Sam government. Implementing the pre-election agreement to share power with Kim Jong Pil, a conservative former rival of Kim Dae Jung, will add another wrinkle to the transition. A second challenge is rooted in Kim Dae Jung's historically close ties to the Korean labor movement, which Gregg acknowledged will be hard-hit, at least in the near term, by the changes demanded in the IMF agreement: "This will be a big test for Kim," he said. But Gregg asserted that Kim can and will convince Korean workers that the agreement with the International Monetary Fund is a necessary step to better integrate South Korea into the global economy, and will ultimately lead to a far stronger Korean economy. Gregg also thinks the IMF should consider easing some of its initial demands to better respond to South Korea's particular situation. "The IMF tends to make one suit of clothes - its standard monetary and fiscal policies - fit everyone. But the Koreans will have to tailor those clothes" to their own needs, he said. One reason: the IMF usually bails out countries with excessive public-sector debt. But in Korea's case it is the private sector that is overwhelmed with debt. North-South Progress Gregg is optimistic on the prospects for improved North-South relations under a Kim Dae Jung government. Kim can quickly forge a better relationship with Kim Jong Il, head of North Korea, now that the latter has solidified his standing and shown that he "is ready for full-scale talks anytime, anywhere," said Gregg. In the South, the economic crisis has furthered the idea that a clear policy of engagement is the only sensible course, according to Gregg, versus the inconsistencies in Northern policy under Kim Young Sam. A North-South presidential summit is quite possible in the coming months, according to Gregg. Because of incoming president Kim's "long perspective and long record, he will view North Korea with compassion but will not act rashly." And with increased North-South dialogue, he said, progress is achievable on many fronts: "confidence building measures on the DMZ, such as pulling back troops, investment in North Korea, family visits, mail, rebuilding railroads." Gregg sees a continuing important role for the ongoing 4-way negotiations among North Korea, South Korea, China, and the United States regarding peace on the Korean peninsula, and expects the incoming president to develop a "close working relationship" with Stephen Bosworth, the new U.S. ambassador to South Korea. Gregg also looks forward to improved South Korean relations with Japan, critical to progress on both the economic and security fronts. Gregg thus does not expect U.S. policy toward South Korea to change despite some suspicions of the new president's purported leftist leanings among past administrations. "A turn in U.S. policy would be a foolish and hostile act," he said. Overall, Gregg called the election of Kim Dae Jung a "tribute to the collective intelligence of South Korean voters. Thanks to pressure on the part of the media, those voters had the opportunity to examine the candidates closely rather than simply observe them waving to crowds." The result is the choice of a "courageous and strong-minded" individual who has the potential to avoid the vindictiveness of former incoming presidents and concentrate on a forward-looking future for the Korean peninsula.
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