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India's nuclear tests are a threat to the peace and stability of South Asia. They are a setback to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban treaty (CTBT) and the cause of nuclear non-proliferation. They are a rebuke to the policies and legacy of Gandhi and Nehru. India's action increases the likelihood of an equivalent response from Pakistan and may spark an overt nuclear arms race in South Asia. It also threatens to worsen New Delhi's already difficult political relations with Beijing. In combination with the ballistic missile race already underway between India and Pakistan, the nuclear tests increase the danger of war and nuclear confrontation. The United States faces difficult choices. Under the Proliferation Prevention Act of 1994, the United States is required to impose severe sanctions against India. Washington is required to bar foreign aid, loans and technology transfers and to vote within the World Bank and IMF against any loans or financial assistance. These sanctions will have serious impact and could halt vital social development programs and major investment projects. The political impact of such sanctions within India, however, is likely to be counterproductive. External pressures may arouse a rally around the flag effect and generate greater support for the government. Over time nationalist fervor may dissipate, but the social and humanitarian costs could be high. Yet Washington cannot stand by and do nothing. It must act to uphold the CTBT and the principle of non-proliferation. It must also attempt to deter Pakistan from opting for its own nuclear test. Washington has little choice but to impose the sanctions required by law, but it should hold out the option of suspending sanctions if New Delhi will accept a test ban bargain. The United States could suspend the imposition of sanctions if New Delhi would agree to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and offer security assurances to Pakistan. Such a bargain might mitigate some of the damage caused by India's actions. It is doubtful that India would go for such a bargain, however, having already taken the risk of conducting the nuclear tests. Washington should also undertake a major diplomatic initiative to reassure
and calm Pakistani concerns and lead by example in accelerating the pace
of global disarmament. Every public opinion survey in India shows widespread
support for nuclear disarmament and a willingness to forego the nuclear
option if other nations, especially the major powers, abandon their weapons.
India's test confirms what experts have long suspected, that the United
States cannot retain its weapons and expect other nations to accept nuclear
apartheid indefinitely. By announcing a major initiative to reduce its
own nuclear weapons and by offering political, economic and security assurances
to India and Pakistan, the United States might be able to head off the
emerging nuclear arms race in South Asia and shore up the tattered nuclear
non- proliferation regime. The United States Senate should move immediately
to ratify the CTBT as an affirmation of America's commitment to non-proliferation
and a rejection of India's cynical defiance of this widely supported international
agreement. Return to Global Beat Home Page Nuclear Watch | East Asian Security | Economic & Monetary Union | NATO Expansion | Nuclear Weapons and Proliferation | U.S. Defense Policy | Publications | Events | |
