While the global non-proliferation agenda hangs in the balance, the Clinton administration, after years of only sporadic attention to the spread of weapons of mass destruction, now must play catch-up. The latest test India's nuclear tests represent the fourth most significant nonproliferation event since the fall of Soviet communism. Previously, the Bush administration had navigated the dangers posed when the Soviet Union broke into four nuclear-arms states -- Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakstan. The second challenge was met when Saddam Hussein's weapons-of-mass-destruction programs suffered crippling, but unfortunately not fatal blows during the gulf war. Similarly, despite some disturbing recent recalcitrance, the Clinton administration froze North Korea's nuclear ambitions in place. But now, India's emergence from the nuclear closet poses another major threat for the Clinton administration and the global community. According to the Hindu calendar, India conducted its first test 25 years ago. However, there is a critical difference between then and now. This time around, India has dispensed with the dubious moniker of a "peaceful nuclear explosion" used in a previous era; an Indian spokesman described the recent nuclear explosion as proof that "India has a proven capability for a weaponised nuclear programme." Essentially, India has come out of the nuclear closet and is proud of it. If India endures the firestorm of criticism and achieves its objective of asserting nuclear nationhood, other countries with nuclear ambitions may proceed as well. The goal of degrading nuclear weapons as instruments of statecraft lies further out of reach than ever before, and the international effort to curtail the spread of nuclear weapons is in serious trouble. If as expected, Pakistan conducts a responding nuclear test, a destabilizing tit-for-tat arms race could catapult forward in South Asia without a clear, peaceful conclusion on the horizon. Moreover, the stakes for global non-proliferation of nuclear weapons extend far beyond the immediate region. Reaction must be swift and severe A host of other countries with nuclear ambitions undoubtedly will take comfort from India's nuclear tests. Nuclear wannabes will watch carefully the condemnation of India to evaluate whether they should proceed with their own nuclear-weapons programs. A variety of non-proliferation tools must be employed immediately to contain this dangerous situation. Unfortunately, the international response to date has been far too rhetorical, tentative and frankly flat-footed. The Clinton administration must view events in South Asia not merely as a regional crisis but as a regional crisis with potentially profound global implications. International condemnation and punitive measures are essential to keep intact the netting that has prevented widespread nuclear proliferation. In the next two weeks, the international community has at least three international forums at which strong measures against India can be announced, thereby putting other countries with nuclear ambitions on notice. First, the U.N. Security Council needs to approve a resolution condemning India's action as a threat to world peace. Second, world economic leaders at the upcoming G-8 meeting in Europe must convey the view that India degrades its economic security as it chauvinistically seeks to establish itself as a nuclear power. And third, foreign ministers from non-aligned movement nations meeting in Cartegna, Columbia, next week must express their displeasure. Halting nuclear proliferation needs to be a priority Mere condemnations of India's behavior will not suffice. The United States and other major nations must halt economic assistance to India and demand the cessation of support from the World Bank and other multi-lateral lending institutions. While the current nationalist government in India will ignore economic pressure for some period, the message they and other nuclear aspirants must take away is that the costs for nuclear ambitions are high. Fortunately, there is a sliver of hope amidst India's nuclear cloud. The United States, Britain and other countries leading the non-proliferation challenge should not only punish India for its action, but also should offer an incentive for India to join other nuclear weapons-capable nations in devaluing nuclear weapons as instruments of statecraft. Already, India has suggested that it would consider joining 149 other nations in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Joining the treaty is a useful expression of responsibility, and it must be encouraged. Without such a constructive step on the part of India, President Clinton should cancel his visit to India slated for later this year and visit one of the countries that opted to forego nuclear-weapons capability -- such as South Africa, Argentina or Kazakstan. Naturally, all the measures the Clinton administration applies to India for its nuclear tests also should apply to Pakistan if it responds in kind with its own nuclear tests. Apart from the obvious strategic importance of recent events, a recent poll indicates that American voters view presidential attention to reducing nuclear dangers as important as balancing the federal budget or improving race relations, two issues to which Clinton has dedicated enormous time and political capital. Maybe the combination of positive political support and ominous strategic consequences finally will get the president to dedicate real and sustained, not merely rhetorical, attention to the danger posed by the seemingly inexorable spread of weapons of mass destruction.
John Parachini is a senior associate of the Monterey Institute's Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Click here for IntellectualCapital.com Return to Global Beat Home Page Nuclear Watch | East Asian Security | Economic & Monetary Union | NATO Expansion | Nuclear Weapons and Proliferation | U.S. Defense Policy | Publications | Events | |
