A number of reports this week about missile developments in key countries of concern underscore a recent warning about emerging missile threats issued by a high-level, independent US study team, known as the Rumsfeld Commission. The Commission released an unclassified Executive Summary of its work in Washington, DC, on July 15, 1998. (The full report is 307 pages, excluding appendices, and is classified.) Within days, the Commission's findings were strongly reinforced by reports that:
The Rumsfeld Commission was established by the US Congress in January 1998 to provide an alternative assessment of missile threats. The panel, officially known as the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, included a politically diverse group of former senior officials and was chaired by former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. The Commission employed what it said was a different and more comprehensive methodology than used by US intelligence agencies in arriving at its conclusions. The Commission's summary report warned that emerging ballistic missile powers "would be able to inflict major destruction on the US within about five years of a decision to acquire such a capability," and pointed out that the United States might have little or no warning that such a decision had been made. These findings are at odds with other official US estimates that suggest that defensive countermeasures could be put in place in time to meet any emerging changes in the long-range missile threat. In responding to the report, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich, stated that it was "the most important warning about our national security since the end of the Cold War." US Secretary of Defense William Cohen, reflecting the Clinton administration's more circumspect views about missile threats, offered something of a business-as-usual response by stating: The Department of Defense is currently working on a program that would enable the United States to deploy a limited national missile defense program in 2003, if necessary.... We continue to maintain the world's most capable nuclear and conventional forces to deter aggression against the United States and its allies. No one should doubt our ability and determination to respond with decisive force to a missile attack. We have prepared a separate summary of the Commission's key findings. However, confirming that the ballistic missile threat is already a real one and is increasing in severity were reports of a number of new developments.
Iran Flight Tests Shahab-3 MRBM Iran carried out the first flight test of its Shahab 3 MRBM on July 21, 1998, according to various media reports. The test reportedly took place at a missile range over land in northern Iran. United Press International reported that US intelligence officials believe Iran may be preparing to conduct additional tests in the near future. The Shahab (Meteor or Shooting Star) 3 is believed to be a derivative of the North Korean No Dong 1 design, with a range estimated at 1,300-1,500 km / 806-930 miles and a payload of approximately 745 kg / 1,650 lb. Once deployed, this missile will allow Tehran to target Saudi Arabia, Israel, and portions of Turkey. US officials estimate deployment could take place in approximately one year.
China Expands ICBM Force On July 21, 1998, the Washington Times reported that China produced six new DF-5A (CSS-4 Mod 2) ICBMs in the first four months of this year. The additional missiles boost China's long-range missile force by a third. The report is particularly important because it sheds new light on China's expanding arsenal of long-range missiles and helps inform public debate on Chinese military modernization despite Beijing's continuing efforts to conceal its activities in this key strategic area. A report carried in the Washington Times in May, based on classified CIA information leaked to the paper, indicated that China possessed 18 DF-5/5A ICBMs, 13 of which are targeted on American cities, and five on Russian and Asian targets. The new report, assembled from information provided by Pentagon intelligence officials, also states that two additional ICBMs will be built in 1998, giving China a total ICBM force of 26 DF-5/5-A missiles. The DF-5A carries a nuclear warhead with a very high explosive yield of 4 to 5 megatons up to 13,000 km/8,060 miles. It was initially designed to cover targets in Europe and the former Soviet Union, as well as North America. The DF-5 has a range of about 12,000 km/7,440 miles.
DF-31 Engine Test In a follow-up report on July 22, the Washington Times revealed that China test-fired an engine for its new DF-31 ICBM, which is under development, during President Clinton's recent state visit. The test reportedly took place on July 1 at the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Center, located some 250 miles southwest of Beijing. Wuzhai is said to be a major launch site for ICBMs and overland Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) tests. A US official quoted in the report asserted that the test was deliberately carried out as a statement of China's lack of regard for US non-proliferation policies, in effect flaunting Beijing's growing strategic independence and power status. The DF-31 is a road mobile, solid fuel design, with an anticipated range of 8,000 km/4,960 miles. It is scheduled for deployment by 2000. China is also developing the JL-2 SLBM, a sea-based version of the DF-31. This SLBM will be carried by a new nuclear-powered submarine (SSBN) and will enable China to target portions of the United States from operating areas near the Chinese coast.
Wanyuan Production Site Said to Be Closing In the Times July 21 report, it was noted that the two additional ICBMs under construction will be completed before the Wanyuan production facility is closed and production is shifted over the next two years to a new plant near Chengdu in central China. The Wanyuan (or Wan Yuan) complex is located approximately 30 miles south of Beijing, according to earlier information derived from other sources. It has operated under several names over the years. (The Washington Times, apparently erroneously, reported that Wanyuan is an underground facility situated "in a remote part of central China," and in close proximity to the new production site at Chengdu.) An Aviation Week and Space Technology editor who visited Wan Yuan in 1987 reported that the facility appeared to encompass "100 acres, with six large factory complexes in the compound." China's Long March 2 space boosters are also built at the site. The facility was said to be known by two names at that time, the Capital Machinery Co. and Wan Yuan Industry Corp. In 1993, the US Government imposed sanctions against China for its missile assistance to Pakistan. Among the Chinese entities sanctioned, was the "Beijing Wan Yuan Industry Corporation" (BWYIC) (also known as "Wanyuan Company" or "China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology" [CALT]). According to a 1993 article by Yan Kong and Tim McCarthy in Jane's Intelligence Review, BWYIC is named after its location on Wanyuan Street in Beijing, and is the international operating name of the former First Academy (Carrier Rocket) missile developer, now apparently CALT. A recent check of CALT's World Wide Web site reveals that CALT was established in 1957 and is subordinate to China Aerospace Corporation (CASC). CALT describes itself as "the largest complex in China mainly devoted to the research and development of launch vehicle technology." CALT has 27,000 employees. (This is up from the 23,000 employees reported at the time of Aviation Week's 1987 visit.)
Pakistan to Test New 3,500 km Missile? A Pakistani press report, meanwhile, recently asserted that Islamabad had "manufactured" a new Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) called the "Abdali." According to a July 19, 1998, report in Islamabad's Urdu-language Al-Akhbar daily, the Abdali has a range of 3,500 km/2,170 miles. Another missile called the "Shaheen" is also said to be under development. Al-Akhbar stated that "laboratory tests of Abdali and Shaheen have been successful and these missiles can be tested anytime in an open air." The report noted that these missiles will allow Pakistan to target all of India and claimed that both are nuclear-capable. We first reported on the Abdali in the aftermath of the April 6 flight test of Pakistan's Ghauri Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) (see our analysis of Pakistan's Ghauri ) At that time, Pakistani leaders claimed they were working on a series of other, longer-range missiles, and specifically identified three new missiles: the "Ghaznavi," the "Babri" and the "Abdali." The Ghaznavi was described as having a range of 2,000 km/1,240 miles. No other details were provided. We speculated, and continue to believe, that the Ghaznavi program could suggest a link to the North Korean Taepo Dong 1 program, given the range similarities between the two systems, and given the recently revealed strong ties in missile activities between the two countries. The Abdali could also draw in some way on North Korean technology, although this remains unclear. Click here for the Center for Defence and International Security Studies Return to Global Beat Home Page Nuclear Watch | East Asian Security | Economic & Monetary Union | NATO Expansion | Nuclear Weapons and Proliferation | U.S. Defense Policy | Publications | Events | |
