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Introduction: NATO and European Conflict NATO is likely to remain the most prominent European security institution, especially in light of the planned eastward enlargement of the alliance, beginning with the proposed admission of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic at NATO's 50th anniversary summit in April 1999. There may be subsequent waves of NATO enlargement to include additional members such as Slovenia, Romania and the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which have all been invited by NATO to apply in 1999. Still other European nations have also expressed interest in joining NATO, and some experts have even called for consideration of the eventual admittance of Russia into NATO. Amid the expansion debate, NATO faces new challenges arising from various political and military conflicts in and around Europe. Many of these conflicts are rooted in the existence of border disputes and significant ethnic minorities, some of which have separatist movements. Perhaps the two largest potential sources of conflict or instability in Europe will be the Balkans and the former Soviet Union. Even if peace holds in Bosnia and the rest of the former Yugoslavia, there are other potential Balkan/Central European flashpoints, such as those in Kosovo, Moldova and Macedonia. Russia could become embroiled in conflicts with NATO over the Baltic states joining the alliance, with the Ukraine over Crimea and in other conflicts. In addition, there are a number of ongoing and potential conflicts within and between the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union which could affect NATO planning and operations. Those who support enlargement argue that the prospect of joining NATO has improved the situation for ethnic minorities in Central European countries such as Romania, and that enlargement will further recent gains in political and economic reform within new and potential new member states. Critics are concerned that those countries left out of the current wave of enlargement will fall into a security vacuum which could exacerbate domestic or regional tensions, and that new dividing lines may emerge in Europe. At the same time, current NATO members are engaged in an important debate about whether or not the alliance should take on greater responsibilities in dealing with conflicts in the Balkans and outside of Europe. A centerpiece of these discussions are current efforts to revise NATO's strategic concept, which was last updated in 1991. For the moment it appears that the U.S. government favors giving NATO a greater role in such non-Article V (frequently referred to as out-of-area) missions, while some European governments are reluctant to give the alliance this role. If an effective approach to burden-sharing and a number of other issues can be devised that allows NATO to assume a greater role in conflict mediation in and around Europe, the alliance might be able to support the processes of democratization and economic reform in Central Europe, the Balkans, Russia and the states of the former Soviet Union to lessen the potential for future conflict in these regions. Finally, NATO's changing mission is affected by ongoing tensions and disputes among current NATO powers over certain foreign policy, security, and operational issues, including U.S.-French disagreements on NATO command structures, and U.S. differences with France and other European allies over policy toward countries such as Iran, Iraq, Libya and Cuba. CONFLICTS BETWEEN GREECE AND TURKEY Aegean Sea Cyprus HUNGARY-SLOVAKIA DISPUTES There are three main bilateral issues between Hungary and Slovakia which concern the Hungarian minority in Slovakia, implementation of the 1995 Hungary-Slovakia treaty (both discussed in the section on Hungarian minorities) and the Gabcikovo dam on the Danube. Gabcikovo dam was conceived in the 1950s as a joint flood control project and hydro-electric energy producer. Construction on the dam began in the late 1970's under the communist regime of Czechoslovakia, but the project was controversial in Hungary. The dispute concerned Slovakia's decision to divert water from the Danube River for its Gabcikovo hydro-electric dam project after Hungary quit the joint project for a similar dam downstream in Hungary. Slovakia claims Hungary broke its contract, while the Hungarians said that diverting the water breaches international law and has caused environmental damage to Hungarian marshland. In September 1997 the World Court ruled that Hungary abandoned the project in 1992 which violated the 1977 agreement between Hungary and Czechoslovakia, while Slovakia broke the law by moving forward on the project on its own. The court called for the two sides to negotiate and reach an agreement by March 1998 to complete the original project. Hungary instead proposed a power plant between Sob, Slovakia and Budapest, Hungary. This issue continues to be discussed in bilateral meetings of Hungarian and Slovak leaders. HUNGARIAN MINORITIES There are over five million ethnic Hungarians outside of Hungary, especially in Slovakia, Romania, and the former Yugosloavia, including in the Serb province Vojvodina. Since 1994, setbacks in democratic reform in Slovakia have exacerbated problems for the Hungarian minority there. In 1997 there were a number of disturbing trends in the Slovakian treatment of about 540,000 minority Hungarians. Breaking a 75-year tradition, Slovakia refused to issue bilingual report cards for students attending Hungarian minority schools. Slovakian Prime Minister Meciar suggested to Hungarian Prime Minister Gyula Horn that Hungarians who were unhappy with life in Slovakia could be exchanged with Slovaks living in Hungary. In October 1997 he told a rally of supporters that minorities could jeopardize the territorial integrity of the Slovak nation. Hungary insists that ethnic Hungarians living in Slovakia be represented on a committee to implement the 1995 treaty between the two nations, but Slovakia resisted the idea that ethnic Hungarians represent Slovakia. Several meetings took place in 1997 and early in 1998 to deal with this issue, but the committee does not yet exist. Hungary says it only seeks from Slovakia the same basic position achieved with other countries that have significant ethnic Hungarian populations. The Hungarian government often cites Romania, which is home to more than 1.5 million ethnic Hungarians. Parliamentary elections in Slovakia in the summer of 1998 could substantially alter governmental attitudes toward the minority.
CONFLICTS IN THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA AND THE BALKANS: Bosnia-Hercegovina The war in the former Yugoslav republic of Bosnia-Hercegovina (commonly referred to as Bosnia) took place from April 1992 when Bosnia declared its independence from Yugoslavia until the signing of the Dayton peace accords in November 1995. Between 1992 and 1995 the European Union (EU) and the United Nations (UN) were unsuccessful in their efforts to end the war in Bosnia. During the war Bosnian Serbs seized over 70% of the republic's land. In December 1995 60,000 NATO-led troops under the overall command of the United States were deployed in a multinational implementation force (IFOR). IFOR was replaced in December 1996 with a smaller stabilization force (SFOR). SFOR's mandate expires in June 1998 when it is likely to be succeeded again by a smaller follow-on NATO force. Nevertheless, the danger of renewed hostilities persist, especially if NATO troops were to leave entirely. Some alliance presence may thus be needed in Bosnia indefinitely. Alliance leaders have begun discussing how to transform this mission, in which the bulk of the ground forces are European, into one under the leadership of the Western European Union (WEU), as a WEU-led NATO Combined Joint Task Force (CJTF) mission, but this could take years to accomplish.
Croatia Croatia declared independence from Yugoslavia in June 1991, which resulted in war between Croatian forces and local Serb insurgents who were assisted by the Yugoslav People's Army (made up mostly of Serbs). In August 1991 Croatia declared war on Yugoslavia in response to the ethnic cleansing campaign in Serb-controlled Bosnia. In December 1991 the Croat and Serb leaders agreed on the deployment of a United Nations (UN) peacekeeping force. During the Bosnia war, Croatia alternated between support for the Bosnian Serbs with aid to the Bosnian Muslim forces. In 1994 Croatian leader Tudjman helped create an agreement which established a Croat-Muslim federation in Bosnia-Herceogovina which formed a confederation with Croatia. In May and August 1995 (which was also when NATO began intense bombing of Serb targets) Croat forces launched an offensive on the Serb-controlled regions of Western Slavonia and Krajina, and in both areas they quickly defeated local Serb forces. These attacks led to an exodus of approximately 180,000 Serbs from Western Slavonia and Krajina. The U.S. persuaded Croatia to allow some Serb refugees to return home, but there is no treaty provision ensuring their right to return. In June 1997 President Tudjman won a new five year term.
Serbia-Montenegro During the war in the former Yugoslavia, Serbian leader Milosevic sought to enable all Serbs to live in one state, but the effects of the war and United Nations (UN)-imposed sanctions appear to have convinced the Serb leader to give up his dream of a greater Serbia. After Serbs in Eastern Slavonia agreed to reunite peacefully with Croatia, an agreement normalizing relations between Serbia-Montenegro and Croatia was signed in August 1996. Milosevic pressured the Bosnian Serbs to accept the terms of the Dayton accords, and economic sanctions against Serbia-Montenegro were lifted following the elections held in Bosnia in September 1996. Milosevic, currently Yugoslav President, tries to maintain control over Serbia but his grip on power appeared to weaken in 1996-97. Although Montenegrins have ethnic and cultural ties with Serbs, in 1997 an anti-Milosevic faction emerged in Montenegro and is led by Prime Minister Djukanovic who could block Milosevic's moves in the Federal legislature.
Eastern Slavonia Following the 1995 offensive by Croatia against the Serb-controlled regions of Western Slavonia and Krajina, the remaining Serb area of Croatia, Eastern Slavonia, agreed to be reconstituted peacefully with Croatia. The November 1995 Dayton agreement included an Erdut agreement which provided for United Nations (UN) administration of Eastern Slavonia as a prelude to full Croatian control of the region. The agreement also provided for the deployment of 5,000 UN troops through January 1998. The area is now monitored by a UN police group and by an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) mission.
Kosovo Dispute Kosovo is a Serb province whose population is 90% ethnic Albanian and 10% Serb; it is controlled by the Serbs. Serbs consider Kosovo to be the heart of Serbia. In the face of increasing repression, many of the two million ethnic Albanians seek independence from Serbia. In 1989 Serbia abandoned an autonomy agreement with Kosovo which revoked the region's autonomy. Serbia said it wanted to prevent Kosovo's secession. In a September 1991 referendum 99.9% of voters supported Kosovo's independence, although they may ultimately want to unify with Albania. The Serbs seek to maintain control over land which is sacred to them. There has been low-level violence in recent years which has the potential to spread into low-level war. This region could thus explode into conflict between the Kosovar and Serb leaders with the possible involvement of neighboring Balkan states, especially Albania, Bulgaria and Greece.
Albania Albania experienced a domestic meltdown and significant unrest in 1997 as a result of the collapse in December 1996 of pyramid investment schemes which produced national anarchy. In April 1997 6,000 Italian troops were deployed in Albania to restore order, and in elections in June 1997 the former Communist party won over the ruling Democratic Party. Albanian independence movements in Kosovo and Macedonia are linked with each other but are not directly linked to Albania. The current Albanian government, is led by Fatos Nano, the head of the (ex-Communist) Socialist party. In December 1997 Nanos suggested that Albania should become an Italian protectorate so that it can rebuild its domestic institutions. Nano is a moderate who likes to be thought of as the Tony Blair of the Balkans and is trying to further the democratization and economic reform processes to get Albania into Europe.
Macedonia Dispute Macedonia is one of the independent states to emerge from the former Yugoslavia. Its population includes 25% who are ethnic Albanians, many of whom want to unify with Kosovo's Albanians and perhaps with Albania. In addition, Greece and Serbia have both sought to control Macedonia, in part by promoting nationalist groups within it. Greece contests the use of the country name Macedonia as well as its culture, traditions and symbols because it feels that Greece represents the only true Macedonians. While Macedonia's legitimacy as an independent state is questioned by Greece and Serbia, other neighboring states such as Albania and Bulgaria exacerbate regional tensions through disputes over minorities and language issues. If Greece became involved in a conflict over Macedonia (and it is worth highlighting that there is a Greek minority in southern Albania), that could prompt its rival Turkey to be drawn into the conflict which would place serious strains on NATO's Mediterranean flank. In addition, there are disputes between Macedonia and Bulgaria over language and nationhood. Bulgaria refuses to recognize Macedonia or its language because Bulgarians consider Macedonia historically part of Bulgaria. A small United Nations (UN) force, which is scheduled to be deployed in Macedonia until August 1998, is there to prevent an outbreak of hostilities between Serbia and Macedonia and neighboring states.
Bulgarian-Turkish Relations Relations between Bulgaria and Turkey have been strained both historically and in contemporary times. In addition to a border dispute involving the Rezovska River, which was resolved at a Bulgarian-Turkish summit in Sofia, Bulgaria in December 1997 (their first bilateral summit in almost twenty years), the principal issue between the two countries concerns Bulgaria's ethnic Turkish population. In the 1980's when relations between what were at the time members of NATO (Turkey) and the Warsaw pact (Bulgaria) respectively were very difficult, the Bulgarian government forced Muslims to change their names into Bulgarian names. This action led to the migration of over 300,000 ethnic Turks from Bulgaria to Turkey in the second half of the 1980's. The current presence of moderate governments in both countries has improved the state of Bulgarian-Turkish relations and their commitment to work with each other in dealing with the effects of the Turkish migration.
Moldova Romania considers certain land in Moldova and Ukraine, including Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina to be historically parts of Romania. These areas were incorporated into the former Soviet Union under the 1940 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. In 1991 Moldova gained its independence from the former Soviet Union following the failed coup of August 1991. Its population consists of Moldovans/Romanians (65%), Ukrainians (14%) and Russians and others. The Slavic population of the Dniester region has sought its independence. Following fighting between the Dniester Slavs and Moldovans in 1992, Russia and Moldova reached an agreement that gave special status to the Dniester region with the right to self-determination if Moldova reunited with Romania in the future. Ukraine also has a dispute with Romania over parts of the Black Sea's continental shelf which may have large deposits of oil and gas. Romania is currently seeking to join NATO during the second round of enlargement (after 1999), while Ukraine is developing a cooperative relationship with NATO but is not presently seeking NATO membership.
CONFLICTS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS: The Baltic States And Russia The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) became independent from the Soviet Union following the failed 1991 Soviet coup. These states are now grappling with major economic reforms. They also have significant minority populations, especially the large Russian-speaking minorities in Estonia and Latvia. Although all Russian troops left the region in 1993-94, Russia continues to play an important role in Baltic security. All the Baltic states are strongly in favor of joining NATO, but Russia has indicated strong opposition to such a move. In 1997 Russian President Yeltsin made proposals for a Baltic security system that would include Finland and Sweden, which are not NATO members. These proposals were rejected by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania because of their preference for membership in the Atlantic Alliance. In January 1998 the United States signed a partnership charter with the Baltic states to show support for their efforts to join the alliance, but this continues to be a very contentious issue between Russia and the United States which could destabilize the emerging consultative relationship between NATO and Russia.
Chechnya And Russia The Chechens are closely related to their western neighbors, the Ingush. The Chechen are the largest group in the Northern Caucasus (southern Russia). There are many territorial disputes and other conflicts in the Caucasus region, including a conflict in the early 1990's in which the North Ossetians within Russia sought to unify with South Ossetians in the independent republic of Georgia. After the breakup of the former Soviet Union, Chechnya (whose capital is Grozny) declared its independence as did all the other former Soviet Republics. In October 1992 Chechnya seceded from Russia, an action which triggered a war between Russia and Chechnya. Russia does not recognize Chechnya's independence. In December 1994 Russian troops were deployed in Chechnya to stop the secessionist drive. In August 1996 a cease-fire was established, but a political resolution of the situation has been postponed until early next century. During the war Russia came under heavy outside criticism for its attacks against Chechen civilians which undermined support for Russian President Yeltsin's domestic reform efforts. It is important to note that Yeltsin ordered attacks on Chechnya within days of attending an Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) summit in Budapest, Hungary during which he signed a code of conduct for regulating the conduct of military forces in domestic conflicts. This confluence of events was noted by Central Europeans, some of whom lost confidence in the OSCE's ability to mediate conflicts in Europe and strengthened their desire to enter NATO.
Ukraine-Russia Conflict Over Crimea Crimea's population is 67% Russian (who want Crimea to become part of Russia), 26% Ukrainian and 7% Crimean Tartar (who were expelled from Crimea during World War II and want an autonomous state within Ukraine). In December 1991 a small majority of Crimeans voted in favor of independence from Ukraine. After some moves by Crimea toward independence in 1992-95, in March 1995 Ukraine abolished Crimea's constitution. Ukraine's 1996 constitution guarantees that Crimea will remain an autonomous republic within Ukraine. It also allows Crimea to have its own constitution, but it must be consistent with that of Ukraine. Recently Crimean separatist sentiment appears to have waned in large part because Russia has not provided consistent support to Crimea. In 1996 the Russian parliament passed measures laying claim to the Black sea port of Sevastopol, but in May 1997 Russian and Ukrainian leaders signed a friendship treaty which formally recognized Ukraine's claim to Crimea, including Sevastopol.
CONFLICTS WITHIN AND BETWEEN STATES OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION: Abkhazia-Georgia Conflict There is ongoing conflict between the Georgian government and the government of Abkhazia which seeks independence from Georgia. Russia has acted as a mediator in the conflict, but the Georgians accuse Russia of actively supporting the independence efforts of Abkhazia in order to punish Georgia for its nationalism. The population of Abkhazia is half Georgian, with the other half split among Abkhazis, Armenians and Russians. In September 1993 Abkhazian forces successfully recaptured the capital, Sukhumi. Although both the Abkhazia conflict and the separatist movement in South Ossetia have been dormant for the past couple of years, no lasting political settlements have been achieved. Russian peacekeeping forces are deployed in both areas, and there is a United Nations (UN) Observer Mission in Abkhazia. In addition, rebel Georgian forces continue to mount a civil war against the Shevardnadze government, and Shevardnadze himself has been the frequent target of until now unsuccessful assassination attempts.
Armenia-Azerbaijani Conflict In Nagorno-Karabakh The Nagorno-Karabakh region is an enclave within Azerbaijan that was created by Stalin and the Red Army in the 1920's. It is populated by a majority of Armenians who are Christian and have a distinct culture and traditions, and a minority of Azerbaijanis who are Shiite Muslims related to the Turks. There has been a violent conflict between ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh for many years. Since 1992 the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)'s Minsk Group has tried to reach a settlement between the parties. Russia has attempted to mediate the conflict as well, and there have been problems between Russia and the Minsk Group. In 1997 France and the United States joined Russia as co-chairs of the Minsk Group. In addition to the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenians and Azeris also disagree on the issues of Armenian withdrawal from Azeri territory and the Lachin corridor located between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. In December 1996 the OSCE issued a statement supported by everyone except Armenia which said Azeri territorial integrity should be the basis of a settlement. Acceptance of these proposals by Armenian President Ter-Petrosyan led to his resignation, and elections are scheduled for March 1998.
Tajikistan The permanence of Tajikistan as a state is threatened by regional and ethnic differences, and civil wars took place there in the early 1990's and from September 1994 until June 1997, when a comprehensive peace agreement was signed. During the war, Russia and Uzbekistan provided arms and troops for a counter-offensive against the opposition forces that had started the war. The United States has played a key role in brokering this conflict and has pledged humanitarian and development assistance as well as support for implementation of the peace accord. Forces from Russia, Uzbekistan and other countries serve as peace keepers in the region (the Commonwealth of Independent States-CIS Collective Peacekeeping Forces), and the United Nations (UN) and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) established small offices there in 1994. In December 1994 the UN established a formal presence to monitor the cease-fire of September 1994 which works in cooperation with the CIS peacekeeping forces. In December 1997 Russia announced that the troops guarding Tajikistan's border would be reduced. Some groups within Tajikistan are opposed to the peace accord, but the government has sought to enforce their compliance.
Tatarstan Muslim Tatars, the largest ethnic minority in the Russian Federation, are known for their militancy and seek greater independence from Russia. In August 1990 the Tatarstan parliament declared itself an independent republic. In June 1991 Minitimer Shaimeev was elected President of Tatarstan. In March 1992 the autonomous Tatar Republic declared itself to be a sovereign state. Neither Russia nor the international community recognizes Tatarstan's independence. Russia has attempted to placate Tatar demands for independence through the drafting of a new constitution for Tatarstan as part of the December 1993 constitution of the Russian Federation. In February 1994 Russia signed a bilateral treaty with Tatarstan which at least for now allows it retain its constitution. It is unlikely that Russia will ever permit full independence for Tatarstan because of its natural resources, especially oil and its location deep inside Russia. There is thus the potential for future conflict between Tatarstan and Russia.
Algerian Civil War In the late 1970's Islamism began to grow in Algeria, in part, by appealing to those who believed the Socialist regime did not reflect Islamic values. Discontent with the regime was also furthered by the poor state of the Algerian economy. President Chadli Bendjedid responded to this difficult domestic situation with political reforms, including legalization of previously banned political parties. The Islamic Salvation Front (ISF), one of these parties, sought a state governed by Islamic law. The ISF was on the verge of parliamentary victory in January 1992 when the Algerian military forced President Benjedid to resign and annulled the election. Militant Islamists began attacking the army after the coup. But the ISF was overtaken by terrorist groups it apparently cannot control. The most violent of these groups is the Armed Islamic Group (AIG) which has carried out attacks both at home and in France. Human-rights organizations estimate the total number of people killed during the past six years to be as many as 85,000, many of them civilians who were tortured to death. Algeria's military-backed Government continues to refuse any kind of international intervention, and President Liamine Zeroual turned down the European Union (EU)'s offer of assistance and humanitarian aid. Some reports in Western media have suggested that Algerian army personnel or para-military troops have infiltrated gangs associated with the Islamic fundamentalist AIG, and participated in some killings. The Algerian Government strongly denies having any such role.
RELATIONS BETWEEN FRANCE AND THE UNITED STATES Although France and the United States have been close allies since the late Eighteenth century and throughout the cold war, their diplomatic and security relations have been strained in the last couple of years by differences in their approaches to NATO and European security issues, among others. In 1996-97 the French government attempted to persuade the United States that NATO's AFSOUTH (Allied Forces Southern Europe) command based in Naples, Italy should be placed under European leadership, but the United States refused to grant this concession because of the key strategic importance of the southern command. The southern command issue had been linked to a possible French return to NATO's military command system. It now appears that in the short-term France is unlikely to rejoin NATO's military wing, but France is actively engaged in close political and military consultation with the alliance, for example, through efforts to form Combined Joint Task Force (CJTF) headquarters. France is at the center of alliance efforts to develop a greater European role, or European Security and Defense Identity (ESDI), within the alliance, but full implementation of the ESDI would require a lessening of Europe's military dependence on the United States and France's return to NATO's military command system.
DIFFERENCES WITHIN NATO REGARDING IRAN, IRAQ, LIBYA AND CUBA There are significant differences between the United States and European
members of NATO with respect to how best to deal with the regimes in Iran,
Iraq, Libya and Cuba. In particular, European NATO states that are also
members of the European Union (EU) have opposed some elements of the hard-line
policies of the U.S. administration toward these countries and in particular,
U.S. laws (the Helms-Burton and D'Amato Acts) which seek to impose sanctions
on companies that do business with Iran, Libya and Cuba. A trade conflict
has emerged over this issue between the EU and the U.S. which may be resolved
through the World Trade Organization (WTO). In the fall of 1997 the U.S.
voiced its disapproval of a deal in which French, Russian and Malaysian
companies signed an agreement with Iran to develop a natural gas field.
In addition, in the current confrontation in the Persian Gulf between the
United States and Iraq, France has shown a stronger interest in pursing
diplomatic resolution of the crisis through its own auspices and those
of the United Nations (UN) than has the U.S. France's position in the crisis
is roughly midway between the views of the U.S. and Iraq since it takes
a firm line against Iraq but also opposes the military action the U.S.
is considering. Some other European allies have also appeared to support
the French approach to dealing with Iraq. Louis R. Golino has published and lectured in the United States and Europe on French, European and transatlantic issues and is a contributor to the Tocqueville Connection: The Insider's Web Source for French News and Analyses. These are his own views and do not represent the views of CRS or the Library of Congress. Contact GRN for reprint information on this article. Return to The Great NATO Debate Return to Global Beat Home Page Nuclear Watch | East Asian Security | Economic & Monetary Union | NATO Expansion | Nuclear Weapons and Proliferation | U.S. Defense Policy | Publications | Events | |
