Experts and Links

  

Proposal for Russia-Belarus-Yugoslav Federation Finds Fertile Soil in Russia
Global Intelligence Update Red Alert
November 12, 1998
 
During a visit to Russia on November 1-6, a delegation of the five largest Yugoslav parties, led by Deputy Prime Minister of the Yugoslav government and leader of the Serbian Radical Party, Vojislav Seselj, promoted the idea of Yugoslavia joining the union between Russia and Belarus. As part of the visit, the delegation attended a joint session of the Russia-Belarus Parliamentary Assembly on November 3 in Yaroslavl. Seselj, an extreme nationalist denounced in the West as a war criminal, also discussed the proposal with Russian Duma Speaker Gennady Seleznyov, Russian Interior Minister Sergei Stepashin, Moscow Mayor and presidential candidate Yuri Luzhkov, Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, and the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia, Alexei II. In addition, the Yugoslav delegation visited the Russian Foreign Ministry.
 
Following the talks, Luzhkov, Zyuganov, and Seleznyov all expressed their support for the creation of a Russia-Belarus- Yugoslav Federation. Seselj received strong applause for his anti-NATO and anti-Western tirades while addressing the Duma on the final day of his visit. Commenting on the visit for BK-TV in Belgrade, Seselj said that, "certain Western states are openly hostile to us, particularly the USA and Great Britain," whose goal is to "destroy our people and seize our territory." Seselj made it clear that the proposed alliance would be designed to politically and militarily counterbalance the West.
 
Seselj succeeded in gaining the support of a number of prominent Russian leaders for a creation of a union of Slavic nations. State Duma Chairman Gennady Seleznyov suggested that the next meeting of the Russia-Belarus Parliamentary Assembly may decide to grant permanent observer status to Yugoslavia. "The three countries may sign an interstate agreement and then discuss possible joint management of some affairs," Seleznyov said. He went on to say that Russia is sympathetic with Serbian efforts to prevent the disintegration of Yugoslavia. "Attempts to destroy Serbia will continue. There is a desire to blow up Kosovo. Montenegro is beginning to think of seceding from Yugoslavia. Such attempts are undermining the country with which we have been historically connected," Seleznyov said. The Duma speaker also expressed his view that the idea of a Slavic union is becoming increasingly popular in the region. According to Seleznyov, Bulgaria is also currently considering the Slavic alliance concept.
 
To promote his idea of Yugoslavia joining the Russia-Belarus Federation, Seselj met on November 5 with Russian Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, who commented, "The idea of Serbia joining the union of Russia and Belarus expressed during the recent session of the parliamentary assembly of the union in Belarus was very interesting. We have been expressing it for a long time and believe that it can be carried out." In an interview with the Russian news agency Interfax, Zyuganov said that the Communist Party and its supporters "will do their utmost to support Yugoslavia at this exceptionally difficult time." Zyuganov added that, although the plan to establish the Russia- Belarus-Yugoslavia union may at first appear infeasible, it could, in fact, be carried out. As an example that such a revolutionary idea, greeted initially with considerable skepticism, could actually materialize, Zyuganov gave the example of European integration and its perception after World War II.
 
As the leader of radical Serbian nationalists, Seselj had planned his visit to Russia well, appealing to as many influential political and even religious leaders as possible. His talks with the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia Alexei II were of special significance. If the union between Russia, Belarus, and Yugoslavia is to materialize, the Orthodox Christian church could play a major role by pointing to the historical and religious integrity of Slavic nations. The Orthodox Christian church has been supportive in the past of a peaceful resolution of the Kosovo problem, denouncing the U.S. threat to launch an attack on Serbia. This offered the Serb nationalists a good starting point for discussing the idea of a pan-Slavic union with the church. The outcome of the talks held between Seselj's delegation and Alexei II were not made public, however, and no official statements regarding this issue have been released by the Orthodox Christian church.
 
The support Seselj received from Russian nationalists and communists for his proposal comes as no great surprise. Only a few Russian politicians, including the chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, Vladimir Lukin, expressed skepticism about the feasibility of such a plan. This reflects the fact that Russia is currently caught between two potential futures ñ a return to communism and extreme nationalism on the one hand, or total chaos and, eventually, military rule on the other. The fact that even previously moderate and pro-reform figures such as Yuri Luzhkov have now shifted their position toward a more extreme form of nationalism suggests that the first scenario is already taking place. After an hour-long meeting with Seselj, Luzhkov told Interfax, "Any action against Belgrade would therefore be an action against Russia and Belarus." Luzhkov further encouraged the Serbian delegation by saying that, "Although a typhoon of counteraction is bound to break out as a result of this union, this is the correct direction along which we must move." Luzhkov also said he would soon visit Minsk to debate the union concept with Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko.
 
In his address to the Duma on November 6, Seselj called on other "brotherly" countries, including Armenia, Greece, Cyprus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Romania, and Bulgaria, to join the new alliance to "counterbalance the forces of NATO and the European Union." Clearly, the Serbian nationalists are assuming that Russia's historical allies and those nations in need a strong ally in possible future conflicts may consider supporting the idea of an anti-NATO alliance and, eventually, join it. Although the unification of (mostly) Slavic states may appear to be a fantasy of desperate nationalistic forces in Russia and Eastern Europe, militarily and politically this concept may make sense to the parties involved.
 
For example, although Yugoslavia shares no borders with either Russia or Belarus, if Yugoslavia were to become a member of a Russia-Belarus-Yugoslavia federation, then Russia could station forces on Serbian and Montenegrin territory. This would significantly constrain NATO's ability to intervene in ethnic conflicts in Yugoslavia without risking a major military conflict involving Russia. Russian troops in Yugoslavia would also contribute to Russia's goal of blocking NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe and limiting its geographic influence. While the critical weak point in an expanded NATO's front line -- Slovakia -- may now be remedied, a Russian deployment in Serbia would once again make defending Hungary a nightmare.
 
Moscow has already begun to readjust its defensive posture for a more explicit confrontation with NATO, recently stepping up its military relations with Belarus in an effort to limit NATO's eastward expansion. Russian press agencies RIA and Itar-Tass quoted Colonel-General Yury Balyuevsky as saying that Russia has lately re-deployed its troops along Belarus' western borders, a statement later denied by the Defense Ministry. Russia's arms sales to and defense cooperation with Greece and Cyprus, while not likely to lead to their joining the union, still effectively undermines U.S. and NATO interests by fueling the long-running Greek-Turkish confrontation. Again, while perhaps not ready to join a formal union, Armenia has largely aligned itself with Russia, and remains in simmering confrontation with growing U.S. ally Azerbaijan. Through Armenia, and possibly Georgia, Russia can exert a strong influence on events in the Black Sea and in the Kurdish area of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. Turkey has even alleged that Russia is harboring the leader of the rebel PKK in Moscow. Finally, Russia still maintains a major political and military presence throughout Central Asia. After Ukraine, however, which is sliding inexorably toward Russia anyway, Yugoslavia would be a prize jewel.
 
While at first glance a radical idea, incorporating Yugoslavia in some way in the Russian-Belarus union makes sense. It offers Yugoslavia a weighty shield against U.S. or NATO aggression, and it gives Russia an inexpensive but very powerful lever with which to disrupt NATO expansion. Top that all off with pandering to the nationalist turned pan-Slavic crowd in both countries and you have a deal. If it was just Ilyukhin or Zhirinovsky, the perennial Russian lunatics, warming to this proposal, we'd be inclined to discount it. But with Zyuganov, Seleznyov, and Luzhkov on board, Western planners should seriously begin considering the repercussions of a more substantial Russia- Belarus-Yugoslavia alliance.
 

Click here for more Global Intelligence Updates.

Return to Global Beat Home Page

Nuclear Watch | East Asian Security | Economic & Monetary Union |

NATO Expansion | Nuclear Weapons and Proliferation |

U.S. Defense Policy | Publications | Events |

Experts Directory | Links Directory |

About the GRN |