William Hartung: on the enduring questions that remain after Saddam's capture Ehsan Ahrari: on why Saddam's capture will not eliminate the threat of terrorism Dan Smith: on U.S. military bases overseas as the price of empire Tommy Ates: on why the new Geneva accords are relevant Ralph A. Cossa: on the flashing yellow light from Taiwan and China

New York University

U.S. State Department's
Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2002

The US State Department's Report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2001

satellite photo shows damage in Bam (courtesy of the Federation of American Scientists) Click on image

THE DEVASTATING QUAKE THAT HIT BAM IS SHAKING MORE THAN THE GROUND
The quake which killed more than 20,000 people, has raised questions about the inability of the government in Teheran to modernize the country and impose building standards, and it has also triggered internal criticism of Iran's isolation. Similar quakes in the U.S. had minimal casualties because of modern building technology. For some, the catastrophe seemed to present an opportunity for changing the direction of Iran's foreign policy. Jefferson Morely reports on the implications in the Washington Post (December 29, 2003)
COLIN POWELL: The U.S. could be open to a new dialogue
(Washington Post, December 30, 2003)
Miranda Eeles reports on the BBC, December 29, 2003
The Teheran Times welcomes U.S. expressions of sympathy, but notes that Washington might have done better to have shown concern for the living as well as the dead. Observes the Times: "Mr. Armitage and the U.S. officials should realize that the people of Bam, buried innocently under the rubble of a natural disaster on Friday, are the same people who were being killed by U.S. weapons and bullets fired from guns that belonged to dictators supported by the United States only a few years ago..." (Teheran Times, December 29, 2003)

THE SAUDI PARADOX
As the world's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia's crucial to American interests, yet the seeds of a murderous strain of anti-Americanism are developing within the Kingdom. The reasons have a lot to do with Saudi Arabia's domestic politics. Michael Scott Doran describes recent developments in the current issue of Foreign Affairs (Foreign Affairs January-February 2004).

SHORTAGE OF TROOPS FOR IRAQ MEANS MORE COMBAT AND DELAYED RETIREMENT FOR THOSE ON ACTIVE DUTY
By issuing a "stop-loss" order, the Pentagon is forcing a growing number of GI's to cancel retirement plans and stay on active duty indefinitely. These days that is likely to mean long stretches of combat in Iraq and low pay. The problem is that the Army, fixed by Congress at 480,000 troops, lacks the manpower to handle the administration's burgeoning worldwide commitments.
(Lee Hockstader, Washington Post, December 29, 2003)

IN IRAQ U.S. NEWS REPORTERS ARE BEGINNING TO FEEL THE HEAT
When someone began taking pot shots in the direction of Knight-Ridder photographer Chip Somodevilla recently, the American photographer, who was accompanying Iraqi fishermen in a boat on the Tigris River, was surprised to find that the source of the high velocity rounds was an American special ops agent in civilian clothes. "After being shot at, I felt very threatened and swore to the man that I was an American and that I was on his side," Somodevilla said. "Yeah, John Walker [Lindh, the so-called American Taliban] made a lot of promises too," the American snapped back. "What have you done for your country?" He let Somodevilla go with the warning, "We're watching you."
Laura Rozen reports in The Nation (January 12, 2004)
The Military Reporters and Editors Association has written a letter to the Pentagon protesting recent attacks and harassment .

IN RUSSIA, THE DOWNFALL OF YUKOS OIL SIGNALS CONSOLIDATION OF POWER IN THE KREMLIN
Washington may have considered oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky to be its influential partner in Moscow, but those days are clearly gone. By jailing the oligarch billionaire, Putin is signaling that Kremlin is not prepared to sell its oil cheaply to the U.S. or to follow the lead from Washington. (Catherine Belton, The Moscow Times, January 29, 2003)

HALLIBURTON'S BURDEN
No matter how Halliburton's public relations experts try to spin it, the fact that the company was run and to a large extent reshaped by Vice-President Dick Cheney will continue to generate uneasiness over the company's privileged status which bypassed normal competitive bidding procedures. After Halliburton allegedly overcharged the Pentagon $61 million for truck fuel earlier this month, the company is now being questioned over a number of cost overruns. A water retreatment plant estimated to cost $75.5 million six weeks ago, will now cost tax payers $125 million. Pipeline repairs estimated at just under $30 million, are now being charged at $70 million. The Times points out that Halliburton's after-tax profits from the first few months of post-war reconstruction will only add ap to a meager $46 million. But that figure is expected to more than triple after the company gets a 5% performance bonus on the entire contract for this year. The bonus will add up to $100 million, and that is just the beginning. The administration which had suggested that it would return to competitive bidding earlier, now appears to have put the idea on a backburner. Any company might have run into the same problems now being confronted by Halliburton, but the secrecy surrounding the granting of contracts, and the fact that the vice-president will receive deferred pension payments from Halliburton running into the tens of millions of dollars as soon as he is out of office raises troubling questions. (The New York Times, December 29, 2003)
California Congressman Henry Waxman's recent letters to the government argue the flaws in recent contract awards. The latest (in the upper left hand column) involves a Bush administration plan to award individual contractors monopolies over different pieces of Iraq's economy. The proposed bill for U.S. taxpayers: $18.7 billion.

AL HAYAT REPORTS PLANS AFOOT TO TRY SADDAM IN SECRET
Iyad Alawi, a member of the U.S.-sponsored Iraqi Governing Council, predicts that Saddam will be tried and executed by an Iraqi court behind closed doors. Saddam, Alawi speculates, has too much damaging information about relations with Europe and the U.S. to be put on trial in public. Juan Cole comments. (Dar Al Hayat via Juan Cole, December 29, 2003)

AN IMPOSSIBLE TRIAL
Nabil Samman, writing in Dar Al Hayat, notes that a genuinely Iraqi trial for Saddam depends on a democratically elected Iraqi government. A trial held by Iraqis who have been hand-picked by a U.S. occupation force will be dismissed by many Middle Easterners as a show trial. That will certainly be the case if the Iraqis try to muzzle Saddam from talking about his business relationships with foreign governments, including the United States. (Nabil Samman in Dar Al Hayat, December 19, 2003)

WILL CENTRAL ASIA TURN TO RADICAL ISLAM?
The question is important since oil and gas finds--particularly in the Caspian Sea region--endow the region with a new strategic importance. The International Crisis Group argues that the current "Public Diplomacy" approach misses the point by focusing too heavily on Islamic issues while ignoring the political systems, corruption and economic backwardness which are likely to drive many people in the region towards radical Islam as the only alternative to intolerable conditions.
(ICG, December 22, 2003)

THE END OF THE WAR ON TERROR'S JUDICIAL HONEYMOON
California law professor, Vikram David Amar, writing in Findlaw, notes that the legal challenges to the administration's policy of denying legal counsel and protection to alleged "War Against Terror" suspects have now worked their way through the court appeals system to the point where decisive cases will be heard by the U.S. Supreme Court. The Second Circuit Court's ruling on Jose Padilla raises the question of whether the President of the U.S. can unilaterally imprison an American citizen while denying protections guaranteed under the Constitution. The Second Court's ruling, which will very likely go to the U.S. Supreme Court, is that the president can deny certain liberties in time of war, but only with the prior consent of Congress. The second case, decided by the Ninth Circuit, questions the president's right to hold foreign citizens indefinitely without recourse to legal advice or any right to appeal. The Supreme Court announced in November that it will hear cases involving this issue. Vikram Amar notes that in the early stages of the Bush campaign in his "War Against terror" the judicial system adopted a wait-and-see attitude that also allowed lower courts to express their opinions. That grace period is now coming to an end. How the Supreme Court rules in the months ahead will go along way towards establishing the degree of protection afforded individuals by the U.S. Constitution. Says 3
Aram: "The so-called 'least dangerous' branch (of the U.S. government) may emerge as the most important."
(Findlaw, December 29, 2003)

REVELATIONS & THE APOCALYPSE
For some of the more extremist followers of the neoconservative Christian right, current developments in the Middle East were predicted 2,000 years ago in the Bible's Book of Revelations. According to the scenario, the Jewish population of Israel constitutes actors in a drama that will ultimately bring on the Apocalypse. At that point the Jews will be forced to convert to Christianity or face annihilation. The idea sounds goofy enough, except that is now being backed by a significant funding drive and a massive lobbying effort is pushing the notion as a rough blue print for U.S. mideast diplomacy. Chip Berlet and Nikhil Aziz document the phenomenon in Right Web.
(Right Web, December 5, 2003)

HOW DOES SHOCK AND AWE LOOK NOW?
Donald Chisholm, writing in the winter issue of the U.S. Army War College's quarterly review, Parameters, notes that when it comes to modern warfare "precision guided" weapons can be useful, but in the end it is sustainable overwhelming force that counts. Relying on breaking the enemy's will is a dangerous gamble because the motives that guide enemy forces are often opaque. Hence, Japanese kamikaze pilots during World War II did not really care that their cause was hopeless. Chisholm suggests that Chisholm suggests that some of the basic ideas of the "Revolution in Military Affairs" may be fundamentally off target (Donald Chisholm, The Risk of Optimism in the Conduct of War, Parameters, Winter 2003-4).

U.S. CASUALTY RATE HAS DOUBLED IN IRAQ OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS
At least 475 American service members have died in Iraq so far. 325 were killed in action and another 2,033 have been wounded in action (see the Washington Post's interactive description of the circumstances for each fatality in Iraq). More disturbing, the casualty rate for U.S. personnel has doubled in the last four months, and has not diminished with the capture of Saddam. The Washington Post notes that 145 American servicemen were killed between September 1 and last Friday compared to just 65 from May 1 through August 30. Since September 1, at least 1,209 U.S. soldiers have been wounded in action--more than twice the 574 wounded from May 1 through August 30. In the roughly two weeks since the capture of Saddam Hussein on December 13, at least 12 U.S. soldiers have been killed and 105 wounded. At least three times as many U.S. soldiers have been wounded in action during the counter insurgency phase than were wounded in the initial combat phase (1,783 have been wounded since President Bush declared the war over, compared to only 555 during major combat). The increased casualty rates have dampened the hopes of U.S. commanders that a corner might be turned during the summer. Instead, the resistance in Iraq appears to be becoming better organized.
(Vernon Loeb, the Washington Post, December 28, 2003)

PENTAGON TALKS TO THE WASHINGTON POST ABOUT NEGATIVE REPORTING
When the Washington Post's Military Affairs Correspondent Tom Ricks wrote one too many critical stories about U.S. military difficulties in iraq, the Pentagon decided it was time have a heart-to-heart chat with Ricks' editors at the Post. Ricks still has his job, but the message to less well-established reporters in more compliant publications is pretty obvious.
(Harry Jaffe in the Washingtonian on-line)

PAUL KRUGMAN'S RULES FOR POLITICAL REPORTING IN 2004
Let's stop talking about the candidate's clothes and start talking about where policy changes are actually taking us. The idea that policy differences are minor no longer holds, Krugman warns, the country has taken a pronounced turn to the right and the differences are now significant. The cost of journalistic laziness will be difficult for historians to forgive. (Paul Krugman, The New York Times via Common Dreams, December 26, 2003)

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