THE UNQUIET AMERICAN
Graham Greene saw American foreign policy as well intentioned, but dangerously simplistic. Americans mean well, Greene suggested, they just rarely see the long-term consequences of their actions. No one really intends for innocent civilians in far off places to die. It just happens that way. Washington failed to heed the warning in Greene's story and some 50,000 American servicemen and two to three million Vietnamese died as a result. The film version, starring Michael Caine and Brendan Fraser, has just premiered in Hanoi. Miramax held the film back for nearly a year after 9/11. In Vietnam the film has turned out to be a major success—one of the rare occasions when Hollywood actually got it right.
The BBC, December 17, 2002

OUR OWN BRAND OF TARGETED ASSASSINATION
Under the latest policy directives, the CIA is now authorized to kill anyone on an expanding list of terrorist suspects without needing to obtain further authorization from the president. Even though the CIA is no longer legally required to bother White House before carrying out targeted assassinations, administration officials insist that the CIA is making a serious effort to keep the president up to date. The new policy gets around a presidential directive against assassination in general by redefining terrorist suspects on the lethal hit list as "enemy combatants." The process by which the decision is made as to who warrants lethal treatment from the CIA remains secret for national security reasons.
The New York Times, December 15, 2002

QAED SALIM SINAN AL-HARETHI NEVER KNEW WHAT HIT HIM
The hellfire rocket that slammed into the terrorist suspect Qaed Salim Sinan Al-Harethi's car on a remote road in Yemen last October was fired by remote control from an unmanned Predator drone based at a U.S. headquarters in Djibouti. After the killing, Yemeni intelligence agents waiting in a nearby helicopter retrieved the charred bodies of al-Harethi so that an American agent back in Saana could take DNA samples for processing in the U.S.
Seymour Hersh describes assassination by remote control in The New Yorker, December 16, 2002.

LEGAL JUSTIFICATIONS FOR THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM
The Legal argument for suspending due process when it comes to terrorist suspects depends to a large extent on the premise that the U.S. is now officially at war and that any one who actively opposes the U.S. is an enemy combatant. Anthony Dworkin interviews Charles Allen, the Pentagon’s Deputy General Counsel for International Affairs.
Anthony Dworkin, Crimes of War.org, December 16, 2002

HELLO PORK BARREL. GOODBYE MR. SMITH
War fever and a Congress dominated by a single party has cleared the way for a flood of lucrative deals. Former Congressional senior defense analyst, Winslow T. Wheeler, better known by his pen name, "Spartacus," deconstructs the upcoming feeding frenzy. Wheeler’s 53-page pamphlet, "Mr. Smith Is Dead," is available on-line from the Center for Defense Information in pdf format.
Winslow T. Wheeler, Center for Defense Information, December 2002

IS SADDAM REALLY BEYOND DETERRENCE?
The Bush administration’s main argument for launching the U.S. into a war with Iraq is that even though Saddam lacks nuclear weapons now, he might have them in the future, and in any case Saddam is too dangerous to ignore. In an article that will appear in Foreign Policy on December 31, John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt argue that Saddam’s past history demonstrates that he can be contained, and at a fraction of the cost of starting a full scale war.
John Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt in Foreign Policy, December 31, 2002.

DETERRING AL QAEDA
It may not be possible to stop a determined suicide bomber, but the terrorist movements like Al Qaeda are susceptible to pressure. The RAND corporation publishes a 99-page study sponsored by the Pentagon’s DARPA.
RAND, December 2002 (this is a large file. it takes some time to load up)

HARDLINERS’ GAIN IS STATE DEPARTMENT’S LOSS IN ELLIOTT ABRAMS APPOINTMENT TO NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
The appointment of Iran-Contra veteran Elliott Abrams to be chief advisor on the Middle East to the NSC comes as another blow to the State Department which, backed by the CIA and leading U.S. military commanders, is arguing for a lower key approach to Iraq. Abrams replaces Zalmay Khalilzad, whose views on the Middle East were considered too moderate by neo-conservatives. It is unlikely that Abrams will have that problem. He opposed the Oslo peace process and advocates proactive U.S. support for Israel rather than the lower key profile of neutral mediator.
By TomPaine.Org

OPPOSITION GROWS TO POSTWAR U.S. ROLE IN BAGHDAD
300 delegates at a U.S.-sponsored meeting of Iraqi opposition leaders in London this weekend have had difficulty agreeing on a number of key issues. The one thing that they all do come together on is a reluctance once Saddam is gone to see the U.S. wearing out its welcome in Baghdad or trying to parachute in a government in exile. The Kurds have volunteered to put 10,000 men on Baghdad's streets to make their point.
By Ian Urbina, Asia Times, December 16, 2002

LIKUD VOTE RIGGING SCANDAL COMPLICATES ISRAELI ELECTION PROSPECTS.
Allegations that the Likud used underworld connections to buy votes in the Knesset may weaken the party enough to clear the way for another unity government. Whatever the outcome, the betting is that Israel's Teflon Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will be able to turn the scandal to his own advantage.
Ha'aretz, December 17, 2002

GETTING CENTRAL ASIA’S POLICE UP TO SPEED
While most of the region is rapidly evolving, national police departments are still stuck in the failed habits and techniques of the former-Soviet era. Providing up-to-date equipment for anti-narcotics operations, etc., is pointless without a major reassessment of how the police fit in a new economic and social context. The problem takes on an added importance because police tend to play a more visible role in the region than the military.
The International Crisis Group, December 10, 2002

NUCLEAR TESTING AGAIN?
A memorandum from Edward Aldridge, undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics, hints that the U.S. may be considering the resumption of low-yield nuclear tests in order to assure the reliability of its aging nuclear stockpile.
By Christine Kucia in Arms Control Today, Dec. 2002

CONGO DEAL
A complex deal intended to put an end to civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will leave president Joseph Kabila in place for the next two years, but will also assign government posts to rebel leaders. While skeptics predict that the deal is too complex to last, the war, which has killed two million people in the last four years, has exhausted all sides to such an extent that peace might have a chance. BBC December 17, 2002

INDONESIA’S MILITARY
The world’s fourth largest country, Indonesia has an important role to play in the stability of the Pacific region, yet the country seems to be on the point of breaking apart. Indonesia’s military is a large part of the problem, and possibly the solution. The RAND corporation has just published a book-length analysis, downloadable in pdf format.
RAND, December 2002

NEW INSIGHTS INTO INDONESIA’S PREMIER TERRORIST NETWORK
The investigation into the Bali bombing has resulted in a much clearer picture of how the Jemaah Islamiya—Indonesia’s premier Muslim extremist organization—actually functions. A deep rift in the organization, and a new tendency to attack westerners are recent developments. One question raised by the new analysis is whether Indonesia’s intelligence agencies had far more information about the extent of the threat than they previously admitted.
The International Crisis Group, December 10, 2002

WASHINGTON’S PYONGYANG DILEMMA
With Washington policy planners trying to concentrate on Iraq, the last thing they needed was a distracting crisis in North Korea. Pyongyang’s open declaration that it plans to follow its own nuclear program is making its neighbors nervous, but in contrast to its dispute with Iraq, the U.S. doesn’t really have a military option, and is reluctant to offer economic incentives. The London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies analyzes the meager US policy options.
IISS December 2002.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

HOW MUCH WILL WAR WITH IRAQ COST IN OIL TERMS?
No matter how successful, an attack against Iraq is likely to affect oil supplies. The Center for Strategic and International Studies sketches out four different scenarios.
CSIS November 12, 2002

The CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman assesses the risks involved

A PRIMER ON IRAQI ARMS INSPECTIONS
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists provides a retrospective series of articles on the attempts to determine how close Saddam actually is to developing a weapon of mass destruction.