Frida Berrigan: On why ordinary Afghans will lose out if the U.S. attacks Iraq.

Ian Urbina: On why Iran's student demonstrations portend a sea-change in Iranian politics.

Ehsan Ahrari: On the battle for Arab hearts and minds over Iraq.

THE GLOBAL BEAT'S INTERACTIVE REPORTS Why We Are Hated,Nuclear Bunker busters
AND Post-Moscow Disarmament

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WHY THEY HATE US
[a Global Beat Exclusive]
"We’ve seen the future, and it’s not pretty. We saw it clearly through the media-soaked eyes of more than 1,200 teen-agers in 12 countries from all parts of the world whom we surveyed for a project entitled The Next Generation’s Image of Americans. "

THE SEARCH FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON FOR LIMITED CONFLICTS
Mark Bromley and David Grahame report on the Pentagon's search for a nuclear "bunker buster"

THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL

Rose Gottmoeller:
an interactive assessment of nuclear disarmament after the Moscow Summit,

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The Journalists' Essential Field Guide to Afghanistan
by Edward Girardet

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REPORTING ETHNICITY AND
OTHER DIVERSITY
ISSUES
by The European
Center for War,
Peace &
The News Media
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WASHINGTON'S IRAQ EVIDENCE PROBLEM
Iraq has delivered a declaration proclaiming that no weapons of mass destruction remain in the country. The U.S. and Britain believe Baghdad is lying, but right now they lack any "killer" piece of evidence that could point the arms inspectors to a dramatic discovery. That's why London and Washington maintain the onus is on Iraq to prove that it has disarmed. But they may struggle to convince the UN Security Council.
The Guardian, December 10, 2002

U.S. IS LOSING PATIENCE
Frustrated by the slow pace of the inspection process and the uncertainty that it will yield an incontrovertible verdict on Baghdad's weapons programs, the Observer's correspondents see the Bush administration fast losing patience with those arguing against war. Iraq, for its part, will do everything it can within the rules to slow the process.
The Observer, December 8, 2002

READING SADDAM'S STRATEGY
Desperate to avoid a war, Saddam Hussein is being as pliant as possible in the face of UN demands, hoping to draw the inspection process out into next summer, when conditions make a ground war difficult. He hopes to maximize divisions among the Security Council by allowing UNMOVIC unfettered access, and feigning horrified innocence if they turn up any weapons components.
The Guardian, December 9, 2002

IRAQ: GETTING AROUND THE EVIDENCE GAP
In the absence of evidence that could catch Iraq red-handed, Washington's response to the Iraqi declaration is two-fold: Emphasize oral testimony over forensic evidence by urging that UNMOVIC aggressively pursue its right to question Iraqi scientists abroad; and focus on Iraq's failure to list weapons stocks unaccounted for during the previous inspections.
The New York Times, December 9, 2002

THE WAITING GAME
The U.S. isn't holding back its incontestable evidence on Iraq's weapons programs, says Washington Post military analyst William Arkin. It simply doesn't have any. But that's not to say Iraq is innocent of the charges. Or that the inspections will prevent war.
The Washington Post, December 9, 2002

U.S., BRITAIN MAY HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS ON 'BREACH'
Britain's government says the contents of Iraq's declaration alone cannot hold it in material breach of UN Security Council Resolution 1441, to trigger a Council response Iraq would also have to block inspections or the inspectors would have to find evidence of prohibited weapons. Washington may not be as patient.
BBC, December 9, 2002

WOLFOWITZ: DON'T EXPECT TOO MUCH FROM INSPECTIONS
Bush administration hawks, concerned to avoid being caught in an open-ended arms inspection process, are emphasizing the limits of UNMOVIC. "It cannot be their responsibility to search out and find every illegal weapons program," said Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz in London last week. "That would be a task beyond their means." Instead, he said, the onus was on Iraq to fundamentally change its attitude and disarm, and the inspectors were simply there to witness that change if it comes about.
International Institute for Strategic Studies, December 2, 2002

POST-SADDAM PERILS
Iraqi exiles meeting in London under U.S. tutelage are poised to adopt a plan for replacing Saddam Hussein. But, says Al-Ahram, the plan has anti-Saddam Iraqis sharply divided, not least because it envisages a new government composed only of exiles and Kurds.
Al-Ahram, December 5-11, 2002

GAMING OURSELVES TO WAR
The hunger of cable news networks for a new Iraq war is insatiable -- hardly surprising, since the last one elevated the genre to its current exalted status. But among the more unusual bits of pre-war programming (as the networks would have it) was an event staged by the Council on Foreign Relations for MSNBC, in which a number of top foreign policy pundits role-played President Bush's security cabinet through hours of simulated crises on the road to war with Iraq. Filmed with all the cinematic tension of those dramatic reenactments of the Kennedy administration's discussions during the Cuban missile crisis, it ends with the rather unremarkable conclusion that the choice between war and peace rests with the president.
Council on Foreign Relations, December, 2002

SAUDIS DIVIDED OVER U.S.
While the Bush administration continues to take conservative flak for its relations with Saudi Arabia, over in Riyadh Crown Prince Abdullah finds that a substantial proportion of the Royal Family opposes his close relationship with Washington. Saudi-U.S. relations are at a dangerous crossroads, says Youssef Ibrahim of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Council on Foreign Relations, December, 2002

'SADDAM CAN BE CONTAINED'
The argument for war on Iraq is premised on the idea that the world allow him to acquire nuclear weapons. But even if he had them, argue By John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, his record suggests that he'd be contained by deterrence.
Foreign Policy, January, 2003

SPIKING SADDAM'S SCUDS
In the event of war, Iraq's medium range missiles remain a threat to both the U.S. and its allies. Rear Adm. (Ret.) Stephen H. Baker offers a tactical assessment of how U.S. forces could address this challenge on the battlefield.
Center for Defense Information, December 3, 2002

VIRTUALLY AT WAR
One reason the U.S. is in no hurry to bring the Iraq confrontation to a head is that the inspection process allows time to assemble and prepare the necessary invasion force. This week, U.S. commanders are running a full-scale (but entirely computer simulated) test of their electronic command center at Doha, in Qatar, which would probably be used to run an Iraq war.
The Times, December 9, 2002

'CAIRO, NOT RIYADH IS AMERICA'S WEAK LINK IN THE MIDEAST'
Washington's focus on the state of relations with Saudi Arabia may be missing a more profound crisis, warns Saad Mehio. In Egypt, a stagnant economy and rising nationalist anger and shame over the fate of the Palestinians are combining to create an explosive political cocktail that could destroy the regime that has served as America's anchor in the Arab world.
Daily Star, December 9, 2002

KARZAI REALITY CHECK
Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai has big plans to form a national army and disarm his country's warlords. But outside of the capital, that looks like wishful thinking.
The Economist, December 9, 2002

U.S. LEANING ON INDIA OVER AFGHANISTAN?
Indian media are reporting that the U.S. sent New Delhi a demarche urging it to restrain its political and reconstruction activity in Afghanistan for fear of further weakening Pakistan's President Musharraf. The demarche reportedly notes that recent elections showed that Musharraf has been considerably weakened by his support for the U.S. war on terror.
Dawn, December 9, 2002

AL-QAEDA'S LONG-TERM STRATEGY
Al-Qaeda has not only survived the first year of the U.S. war on terror, it may be more active than ever. Paul Rogers argues that rather than trying to defeat the U.S. in the short term, its strategy involves provoking U.S. military action on the widest possible front throughout the Arab and Muslim world, confident that such action actually extends the al-Qaeda's operational and ideological reach.
Foreign Policy in Focus, December 6, 2002

AL-QAEDA GETS UNWIRED
How have Osama bin Laden's men managed to continue operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan despite the heavy U.S. presence there? By abandoning electronic communications and resorting instead to time-honored methods such as runners and couriers that confound the abilities of high-tech surveillance, reports the Independent's Robert Fisk.
The Independent, December 6, 2002

VENEZUELA: A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION?
Once the national strike demanding his ouster had choked Venezuela's oil industry, President Hugo Chavez had no choice but to negotiate. An offer of early elections is on the table, as the Organization of American States seeks to broker a peaceful end to a potentially explosive crisis.
The BBC, December 10, 2002

VENEZUELA: A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION?
Once the national strike demanding his ouster had choked Venezuela's oil industry, President Hugo Chavez had no choice but to negotiate. An offer of early elections is on the table, as the Organization of American States seeks to broker a peaceful end to a potentially explosive crisis.
The BBC, December 10, 2002

A DANGEROUS GAME IN CARACAS
The Council on Hemispheric Affairs warns that unless both sides accept democratic rules for resolving the crisis in Venezuela, the country will be plunged into a vicious cycle of violence reminiscent of Colombia.
Council on Hemispheric Affairs, December 9, 2002

CHAVEZ REMAINS POPULAR
The LA Times reports that the opposition to President Chavez is rooted originally in Venezuela's elites and more recently its middle class. But his continued popularity among the poor makes him a force to be reckoned with.
LA Times, December 9, 2002

ABRAHAMS APPOINTMENT SIGNALS BUSH ADMINISTRATION'S MIDEAST PEACE GO-SLOW
By appointing neo-conservative champion and fierce opponent of the Oslo land-for-peace agreement Elliot Abrahams as his Middle East policy coordinator, President Bush has signaled that his administration has little interest in pressing for an Israeli-Palestinian agreement in the near future.
Foreign Policy in Focus, December 9, 2002

NEO-CONS CHEER VICTORY OVER POWELL
The neo-conservative Weekly Standard welcomes the appointment of Elliot Abrahams as White House Mideast policy coordinator as a sign that the administration plans to limit efforts by Secretary of State Powell to press forward on Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Weekly Standard, December 16, 2002

TURKS SEE ANTI-ISLAM BIAS IN EU SNUB
Despite the political consensus in Turkey over joining the European Union, the EU remains reluctant to start the process of negotiating the terms of Turkey's admission. The reason, Turks believe, is reluctance to accept a predominantly Muslim nation.
The Observer, December 8, 2002

PUTIN SEEKS ALLIES AGAINST U.S.
President Vladimir Putin's recent visits to China and India reaffirmed Moscow's enthusiasm for a tripartite alliance to counter Washington's influence. But conflicts among its components remain sharp.
Center for Defense Information, December 9, 2002

DESPITE DIFFERENCES, INDIA AND CHINA MAY HAVE REASON TO ALLY WITH MOSCOW.
The idea of a Beijing-Delhi-Moscow axis dates back to Jawarahal Nehru, says Asia Times's Sultan Shahin. The idea may long ago have lost its romantic appeal, but realpolitik may nonetheless make it happen.
Asia Times, December 9, 2002

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