THEY HATE US
[a Global Beat Exclusive]
seen the future, and its not pretty. We saw it clearly through the
media-soaked eyes of more than 1,200 teen-agers in 12 countries from all
parts of the world whom we surveyed for a project entitled The Next Generations
Image of Americans. "
SEARCH FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON FOR LIMITED CONFLICTS
Bromley and David Grahame report on the Pentagon's search for a nuclear
FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL
an interactive assessment
of nuclear disarmament after the Moscow Summit,
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Journalists' Essential Field Guide to Afghanistan
by Edward Girardet
by The European
Center for War,
The News Media
IRAQ DEADLINE APPROACHES
Baghdad plans to hand over on December 7 a full inventory of potential weapons stocks and sites as required under UN Security Council Resolution 1441. And early indications are that the Iraqis will continue to deny U.S. and British charges that weapons of mass destruction programs continue. Although the Bush administration is expressing skepticism over Iraq's intentions, convincing the international community that Saddam is violating disarmament undertakings will require either that the Iraqis defy the inspection regime, or else that the inspectors turn up proof of continued WMD activity.
Washington Post, December 3, 2002
WHAT WILL BAGHDAD REVEAL?
Past performance -- and recent Iraqi statements -- suggest Iraq will once again deny maintaining any weapons programs. Previous practice, says the Financial Times's Roula Khalaf, has been for the Iraqis to make "full disclosures" which they then modify each time inspections turn up new omissions.
Financial Times, December 3, 2002
'SADDAM MUST MAINTAIN THE ILLUSION OF STRENGTH'
Saddam Hussein must comply with UN weapons inspections in order to survive, notes veteran U.S. diplomat Richard Murphy. But domestically his survival may also depend on being able to appear to be complying from a position of strength. That gives the current inspection program a 50-50 chance of averting a war.
Council on Foreign Relations, November, 2002
NUKES ARE THE KEY CONCERN ON IRAQ
In a review essay on Kenneth Pollack's "The Threatening Storm," Brian Urquhart points out that the tipping point that necessitates an invasion -- according to Pollack's argument -- is when it becomes necessary to prevent Saddam Hussein acquiring nuclear weapons.
New York Review of Books, December 19, 2002
SADDAM'S SCIENTISTS HOLD THE KEY
UNMOVIC may struggle to find traces of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, says Newsweek. But Iraqi scientists may have plenty to tell, and their tales could trigger a war.
Newsweek, December 9, 2002
U.S. PREPARES FOR WAR
Even as the inspections poker game continues, the U.S. military is preparing for an Iraq invasion by mounting a massive training exercise in the Gulf region that involves transferring the command structure that would run any real war to a new base in Qatar.
The Times, December 2, 2002
TURKEY'S PRICE: A NEW U.N. RESOLUTION
Turkey's insistence that any attack on Iraq launched from its territory must have United Nations authorization underscores the Bush administration's current dilemma: Unless it is prepared to wait for the inspection regime to yield proof of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, the U.S. remains relatively isolated. And right now, U.N. officials are upbeat about Iraq's responses.
BBC, December 3, 2002
President Bush ought to write a personal note to Saddam assuring the Iraqi leader that the U.S. won't invade if Baghdad disarms, says Clinton State Department spokesman James Rubin. Right now, Saddam believes the U.S. will attack no matter how he responds to UN disarmament demands.
Financial Times, December 2, 2002
ISRAEL BEFORE IRAQ
Invading Iraq before resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will leave the West presiding over a sullen and conquered Arab world, warns former British foreign secretary Douglas Hurd. And that will make the job even more difficult. He argues that the coming weeks and months should be used to resuscitate the peace process.
Financial Times, December 2, 2002
DEBATING AN IRAQ WAR
A forum held at NYU recently saw a spirited debate on the merits of an invasion of Iraq. Among the most passionate advocates of going to war: Kanan Makiya, an exiled Iraqi writer who claims his countrymen overwhelmingly support an invasion. Others weren't convinced.
Open Democracy, November 27, 2002
WHO IS KANAN MAKIYA?
Liberals arguing for invading Iraq to overthrow a brutal dictatorship often referred to the case for war being made by the liberal exiled Iraqi writer Kanan Makiya. But Palestinian scholar Edward Said sharply challenges Makiya's credentials as a spokesman for ordinary Iraqis.
Al Ahram, November 28-December 4, 2002
BAGHDAD'S BALKAN BACKERS
Among Saddam Hussein's most enthusiastic arms suppliers -- in violation of the UN embargo -- have been some of the remnants of the former Yugoslavia. And it's not just the old-time NATO-hating Serbs who're doing it, says the International Crisis Group. Arms supplies to Iraq have continued from the Bosnian Serb republic, from post-Milosevic Serbia and also from Montenegro.
International Crisis Group, December 3, 2002
BIN LADEN'S ISRAEL GAMBIT
Just as Saddam Hussein fired Scuds into Israel in the hope of confusing the issues at stake in the Gulf War, so it seems has Osama bin Laden targeted Israel for the first time in the hope of provoking a response that will undermine Arab support for the U.S. war on terror. Sharon is likely to oblige, says the Independent's Robert Fisk. And that's a further indication that bin Laden, rather than the West, is writing the script of this conflict.
The Independent, December 1, 2002
KENYA STRIKE SHOWS AL-QAEDA'S 'OMINOUS ADAPTABILITY'
The carnage of Mombasa is further evidence that al-Qaeda has adapted to the elimination of its Afghan sanctuaries, says Jonathan Stevenson of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Its loose network style of of organization allows it to probe weaknesses in the anti-terror coalition. That, says Stevenson, demands a network style of counter-terrorism.
Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2002 (registration required)
'THE JIHADIS ARE WINNING THE BATTLE OF IDEAS'
The Mombasa terror strike, designed to make Israel a central issue in the West's war on al-Qaeda, is a reminder that al-Qaeda is winning the battle of ideas in its own constituency, warns the Observer's Peter Beaumont. He argues that Western strategists have not come to grips with al-Qaeda's political strategy.
The Observer, December 1, 2002
HOW TO BEAT THE FANATICS
The U.S. is spending $400 on military action against al-Qaeda for every dollar spent on the political battle. That, says Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria, misunderstands how the enemy is fighting the war.
Newsweek, December 9, 2002
WILL THE REAL MUSLIM MODERATES PLEASE STAND UP?
Enough of self-pity and blaming the Muslim world's problems on the West, says Salman Rushdie. Islam is being held captive by a small coterie of extremists, and can only be rescued if moderate Muslims find some backbone.
New York Times, November 27, 2002
BIN LADEN'S RELIGIOUS SIMPLICITY APPEALS TO MUSLIM ANXIETIES OVER MODERNITY
NYU scholar Bernard Haykel toured the Muslim world trying to understand the appeal of bin Laden's message. He found that the erosion of the certainties of identity in the face of modernization has left many vulnerable to al-Qaeda's simplistic theology. The challenge for moderates is to articulate an alternative.
Dawn, December 2, 2002
IRAN'S 'LUTHER' CHALLENGES THE MULLAHS
Hashem Aghajari was sentenced to death in Tehran for the crime of calling for "Islamic Protestantism" Ð a challenge to clerical rule reminiscent of Martin Luther's famous "95 Theses." Aghajari's challenge could have profound consequences both for Iran and Islamist politics globally.
Asia Times, December 2, 2002
ARABS NEED BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF U.S.
The complaint that the U.S. has little understanding of the Arab world is common in today's Arab media. Abdel-Moneim Said turns the argument on its head, suggesting it would be in the Arab world's best interest to attain a far more sophisticated understanding of the workings of American politics and society.
Al-Ahram, November 28 - December 4, 2002
TURKEY'S ISLAMISTS COULD BE A BEACON FOR ARAB DEMOCRACY
Far from threatening democracy in Turkey, the Justice and Development Party may well be its champion, argues Abdelwahab El-Affendi. And the parallel emergence in Arab countries of parties at once Islamist and democratic is a challenge both to the Islamist demagoguery and the pro-Western autocracies in the Arab world.
Daily Star, December 2, 2002
MONEY MATTERED IN AFGHANISTAN
Among the revelations of Bob Woodward's new book, "Bush at War," are the tales of CIA operatives disbursing some $70 million in cash out of suitcases in order to buy warlords away from the Taliban. But, says Observer reviewer Peter Prescott, much of Woodward's book retells tales he was told without giving much consideration to why they were being told.
Observer, December 1, 2002
Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld's role in the Bush war on terror isn't exactly stellar according to Bob Woodward's fly-on-the-wall account of war cabinet meetings. Slate suggests that worse may be in store for the Defense Secretary now that the President has appointed Henry Kissinger to investigate the U.S. failure to anticipate 9/11. After all, the elder statesman had his nose bloodied by the arch hawk in their last bureaucratic battle.
Slate, December 2, 2002
WHEN AUSTRALIANS ATTACK...
Australia's Prime Minister John Howard has set off a regional diplomatic firestorm by remarking casually that his country may take preemptive military action against terrorists in neighboring countries. That has unnecessarily infuriated Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, says the Sydney Morning Herald.
Sydney Morning Herald, December 3, 2002
ISRAEL IS WAITING FOR BUSH
The Bush administration may be hoping that leaving Israel and the Palestinians to their own devices will bring calm to the region, but there's little hope of that, warns Uzi Benziman. The consistently violent impasse will persist until the U.S. applies a more muscular push for peace, since the current Israeli government has made clear it will only move in this direction to the extent prescribed by Washington.
Ha'aretz, December 1, 2002
WHY LATIN AMERICA LOVES A MAN IN UNIFORM
The recent election of Colonel Lucio Gutierrez as President of Ecuador after leading a failed coup against the government two years earlier marks a familiar trend in Latin America that may be repeated in next year's election in Paraguay, warns Miguel Diaz of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Uniformed populists channel popular resentment, but their history of violent challenges for power makes their governments inherently unstable, warns Diaz.
Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 25, 2002
NORTH KOREA: LITTLE ROOM FOR MANEUVER
Although all parties to the tension over North Korea's nuclear program have an interest in pursuing a diplomatic solution, the International Institute for Strategic Studies warns that Pyongyang's flagrant violation of previous undertakings renders further talks difficult for Washington. The U.S. may opt for
ly isolating North Korea in the hope of speeding its collapse.
International Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 2002
COMRADES NO LONGER
President Vladimir Putin has visited China to make the acquaintance of Beijing's new man in charge, Hu Jintao. But, warns Professor Yu Bin, besides ongoing bilateral tensions over issues such as migration, Moscow has to contend with the reality that the new generation in Beijing was raised in an era of closer Sino-U.S. political and economic relations than the old guard who at least paid lip-service to communist solidarity and, in many cases, could actually speak Russian.
Comparative Connections, Third Quarter, 2002
ARAB TV'S OSAMA-DONNA COCKTAIL
Arab satellite channels such as al-Jazeera are neither the harbingers of democracy and modernity in the Arab world that their champions proclaim, nor the Bin Laden bully pulpits that their critics suggest. They are, argues Rami Khouri,
ly following the lead of their American cousins by packaging news and entertainment in the raciest way possible. And in the Arab world that means an unlikely marriage between Osama bin Laden and Madonna. And the reason they're tolerated by Arab autocrats, he argues, is that they "cater and respond to their people's legitimate political anger and emotional angst, and safely channel these emotions through a release of tension every evening, thus solidifying rather than shaking the existing political order."
And if Al Jazeera and company are the Fox, CNN and MSNBC of the Arab world, then Islamist televangelists such as Egypt's Amr Khaled are its Pat Robertsons, taking full advantage of the new medium to spread an old message.
IF YOU CAN'T BEAT 'EM...
Disney has created a universally recognized grammar of animated movies for children. So when Egyptian movie producers decided to make a movie telling the story of the Prophet Muhammad, they adopted an aesthetic familiar to viewers of the "Lion King" and such like.
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