..THE CENTER FOR WAR, PEACE AND NEWS MEDIA, NOVEMBER 1-8, 2004


ORIGINAL MATERIAL PRODUCED BY THE GLOBAL BEAT SYNDICATE

Laura Carlsen: Wal-Mart expands north of Mexico City

Damien J. LaVera: The non-Proliferation Ban's inglorious anniversary

Frida Berrigan: Is U.S. military aid to Indonesia reducing the terrorist threat or increasing it?



THE EFFECT OF RECENT MILITARY OPERATIONS ON AMERICA'S ARMED FORCES
A panel discussion with Lawrence Korb, James Fallows, Colonel Douglas MacGregor, Pat Towell and Carl Conetta, held in Washington, D.C. on October 19, 2004

Background materials for the SPWG discussion on the stress faced by the U.S. Army
[click here...]

A video of the panel discussion is available on C-Span for a limited time, [click here; then click on title on C-Span search page...]

To order a DVD of the SPWEG panel discussion from C-Span (for $75.00), click here



A WEEKLY SELECTION OF NEWS STORIES FROM AFRICA AND THE DEVELOPING WORLD....
[UPDATED WEEKLY]
TO READ MORE,
CLICK HERE ...
 




 


The National Security Archives provides a comprehensive list of recently published government documents outlining U.S. policy in Iraq and the 'War on Terror'.
click here...

 

WAR WITHOUT AN EXIT PLAN

Once the elections are over, U.S. forces are planning to crush Sunni
Iraqi insurgents in Fallujah with overwhelming force, but American commanders have serious doubts about where the Iraq War is heading

U.S. MILITARY COMMANDERS SEE SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN IRAQ
The New York Times interviews 15 top U.S. military commanders in Iraq who indicate that the insurgency has turned out to be far larger, better financed and more difficult to deal with than originally thought. The most disturbing aspect may be the inability of the U.S. to protect ordinary Iraqi citizens from intimidation by radical groups seeking to fill the vacuum resulting from Saddam's ouster. (Eric Schmitt, New York Times, October 31, 2004)
-Deputy Mayor of Baghdad Assassinated (BBC)

CHINA DAILY ACCUSES BUSH ADMINISTRATION OF HINDERING THE WAR AGAINST TERROR
China's English language newspaper has sent a clear message to Washington by charging bluntly that the Bush administration has hurt the international struggle against global terrorism. "The Iraq War has made the United States even more unpopular in the international community than its war in Viet Nam," observes China Daily, "Bush did not even dare to meet the public on the streets when he visited Britain, the closest ally of the United States. From US pre-war military preparations to postwar reconstruction of the country, the rift between the United States and its traditional European allies has never been so wide. It is now time to give up the illusion that Europeans and Americans are living in the same world, as some Europeans would like to believe..." (China Daily, November 1, 2004)

HOW A LOCAL TV STATION DECIDED TO ROLL THE VIDEOTAPE THAT SHOWED THE IRAQI EXPLOSIVES LEFT TO FALL INTO ENEMY HANDS
"Joey, I think we've been to the place they're talking about." That's what Dean Staley told Joe Caffrey after reading last Monday's New York Times account of explosives reportedly missing from a munitions facility in U.S.-occupied Iraq. The statement began a chain of events that resulted in politically charged video being broadcast nationally less than a week before Election Day. (Scott M. Libin, Poynter on Line, October 30, 2004)
-KSTP's videotape
-Human Rights Watch claims that they warned
the U.S. Command about the explosives
-The International Atomic Energy Agency's report to the U.N. Security Council on loss of the explosives

PAUL NITZE'S LEGACY
When he died last month at the age of 97, Paul Nitze was remembered mostly as one of the principle architects of U.S. strategy during the coldwar and of the nuclear deterrence during that period. In a letter to the Washington Post, Bill Hartung notes that many journalists overlooked the fact that Nitze had radically his opinion about the usefulness of nuclear weapons. In a 1999, essay, A Threat Mostly to Ourselves, Nitze reasoned that conventional weapons are now so powerful that nuclear weapons are not only no longer the best option, but they have also become dangerously counterproductive.
-Paul Nitze's essay: A Threat Mostly to Ourselves
-Bill Hartung's letter to the Washington Post
-David Ignatius on Nitze in the Washington Post
-Nitze's letter to Jesse Helms on nuclear deterrence

COLLATERAL DAMAGE
The report in The Lancet last week estimating Iraqi casualties at around 100,000 has unleashed a firestorm both at the government level and in journalistic circles (1,106 U.S. servicemen have been killed in Iraq, and more than 8,000 wounded so far).
Part of the confusion stems from the fact that the Pentagon has refused to keep track of how many Iraqis have died. That goes for civilians accidentally killed by U.S. forces. Iraq Body Count.net estimates the total Iraqi civilian death toll at between 14,000 and 16,000. That figure is based on adding up deaths reported in news accounts, and reporters these days are missing most of the action.
-Lancet's peer reviewed cluster study (in pdf)
-Lancet's Editor's introduction (pdf)
-Fred Kaplan's skeptical critique in Slate
-Discussion of critique in the blogs

WHERE DID THINGS GO WRONG?
Republic of Fear author Kana Makiya may be chosen as Iraq's next ambassador to the United States. Although Makiya was frequently criticized in the Middle East for advising the administration on the war, he is making it clear these days that there are many things that happened in Iraq which he does not agree with. Makiya was interviewed by Pan Hu in the Asia Times. (Pan Hu, Asia Times, October 30, 2004)

REBUILDING LOCAL GOVERNANCE IN IRAQ
The latest study by the International Crisis Group insists that a major mistake in Iraq was the decision of the coalition authority to concentrate almost exclusively on a national transitional administration while failing to establish credible local authorities. While the insurgency is now fragmenting into various competing small groups, the U.S. appointed power in Baghdad is largely blind when it comes to countering the threat. (ICG, October 27, 2004)

CHINA'S INTEREST RATE HIKE TAKES THE WORLD BY SURPRISE
Jamil Anderlini notes in the Asia Times that the uproar that has met China's recent attempt to cool down its rapid growth via a currency adjustment underscores just how integrated China is becoming with the world (Jamil Anderlini, Asia Times, October 31, 2004)

CHINA PONDERS ITS PYONGYANG CARD
Willy Lam comments in the Jamestown Foundation's China Briefs that Beijing has nearly stopped trying to pressure North Korea into moderating its plans to speed up a nuclear weapons program. The reason: China is convinced by recent statements in Washington that the U.S. , Japan and Taiwan are now commited to trying to contain China from further expansion in the region. (Willy Lam, China Brief, October 28, 2004)

UKRAINE'S ELECTION PITS PRO-MOSCOW CANDIDATE AGAINST ONE THAT IS MORE DRAWN TOWARDS EUROPE
Apart from charges of dirty tricks, the current election may decide how the Ukraine decides to orient itself in the next few years. (Moscow Times, October 31, 2004)

GEORGIA'S SAKAASHVILI FEELS GROWING PRESSURE
Kim Murphy, writing in the Los Angeles Times, notes that Georgia's dynamic American-educated president may be nearing the end of his political honeymoon. Many Georgians want Sakaashvili to spend less time antagonizing Moscow, and more dealing with poverty and unemployment. (Moscow Times, October 31, 2004)

ARAFAT'S BLEAK LEGACY
Nicholas Blanford, writing in Beirut's Daily Star, notes that Arafat's refusal to pick and groom a successor is likely to produce a brutal struggle for control if he does not survive his current disease.
(Nicholas Blanford, Daily Star, October 31, 2004)

-HAARETZ NOTES THAT ARAFAT HAD AN UNCANNY ABILITY TO UNIFY BOTH HIS FRIENDS AND HIS ENEMIES....




THE BBC'S GLOBAL BUSINESS LOOKS AT THE IMPACT OF THE SKYROCKETING U.S. DEFICIT
CLICK HERE...
(streaming audio)
***
SEYMOUR HERSH'S LECTURE TO BERKELY'S GRADUATE SCHOOL OF JOURNALISM
CLICK HERE...

(streaming video)

 

This election will have an impact on the entire world, but at least in theory only Americans get to choose.

OSAMA BIN LADEN TRIES TO CAST HIS VOTE
Republicans may have been counting on a last minute move by Al Qaeda to boost George W's ratings as leader of the War Against Terror. In the end, Osama Bin Laden obliged with a cryptic video. Tom Engelhardt comments in Tom Dispatch.com (Tom Engelhardt, TomDispatch.com, October 30, 2004)
-The Video via the BBC
-RAND terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman comments on the significance on PBS' NewsHour
-Juan Cole on Osama Bin Laden's reference to the towers of Beirut

ON THE ISSUES
The On The Issues website provides a quick read on where each of the candidates stand on critical issues.

THE CHOICE FOLLOWING A QUESTIONABLE PRESIDENCY
The New Yorker's endorsement of John Kerry followed a long litany on the short comings of the last four years. (Editors of the New Yorker, October 25, 2004)

TIMES OF LONDON SPECULATES THAT BIDEN WOULD BE SECRETARY OF STATE IF KERRY WINS
The Times speculates that Richard Holbrooke, who also wants the post, is likely to be edged out by the senator. (Indpendent, October 31, 2004)


IF THE ELECTION GOES BACK TO THE SUPREME COURT... MEMORIES OF GORE VS. BUSH
When David Margolick interviewed Supreme Court clerks about the decision that gave the presidency to George Bush, he found a strong sense of unease about what had happened. With even more at stake this time around, it is worth revisiting what happened when Florida botched the electoral process the first time around. (David Margolick, Vanity Fair, October 2004)
-Part 1 (pdf)
-Part 2 (pdf)

RUMSFELD'S WAR: NOT ALL THE COMBAT HAS BEEN IN IRAQ
PBS Frontline's extraordinary documentary on the neocon takeover of U.S. defense policy is viewable online in streaming video. The film is sympathetic to Rumsfeld in places. There is footage of Rumsfeld putting himself personally at risk to help the wounded during the 9/11 attack on the Pentagon, but the underlying theme is a story of hubris gone wrong. The hero is Colin Powell, one of a young group of combat-tested Army officers who rebuilt U.S. defense capabilities after the catastrophe of Vietnam. The formidable fighting machine created by these soldiers is coming close to the danger point again, largely thanks to the meddling of the "Vulcan" civilian amateurs, who seized power on the coat tails of George W. Bush. Paul Wolfowitz emerges as the theoretician of the policy that has brought the military to the brink. The film is worth watching, and the website carries valuable supplemental interviews and research information.
(Frontline,WGBH, October 2004)
-Watch the film online...

THE TRUE BELIEVER
Paul Wolfowitz emerges from Peter Boyer's New Yorker profile as an idealistic Washington policy wonk making dramatic mistakes with the best intentions. Boyer traces the origins of Wolfowitz's obsession with getting Saddam and the somewhat naieve fantasy that taking over Iraq could stabilize the Middle East, without requiring an enormous commitment of "boots on the ground." Wolfowitz never appears to have asked himself whether the elimination of a detestable, but weakened and largely contained dictator, was really worth the expense in lives and fortune that going to war was likely to demand. (Peter Boyer, The New Yorker, October 25, 2004)


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9/11 Report on Terrorist Attacks against the U.S.

•Full text (585 pages-pdf)
•Executive Summary(31 pages-pdf)