MOSCOW HOSTAGE TAKING
Chechen terrorists still hold hundreds of hostages in a Moscow theater and are threatening to detonate explosives if the police intervene. The attack places Putin under growing pressure since his election campaign was based partly on ending the Chechen crisis and on guaranteeing security from terrorist acts. At the same time, the attack maybe an indication that Russian military pressure on guerillas is beginning to take its toll.
The Moscow Times, October 25, 2002

Russian analysts predict that the attack will backfire against Chechen rebels.
Interfax, October 25, 2002

Attack recalls similar Chechen hostage taking in 1995.
By Moscow Times, October 25, 2002

BBC's comprehensive web links on the hostage taking.
The BBC, October 25, 2002

ANOTHER SUICIDE BOMB IN ISRAEL.
A jeep packed with several hundred pounds of explosives pulled up behind a bus in Israel Monday and then exploded killing at least 14 people and wounding 40 more. Some of the passengers trapped in the inferno were burned alive. Yassir Arafat immediately denounced the bombing, the worst in weeks. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon called an emergency cabinet meeting to decide what to do about the attacks which more and more Israelis are beginning to admit are impossible to stop. Further retaliations against Palestinians would provide another obstacle to Washington's efforts to build a coalition against Iraq, but Sharon, who angered Washington earlier is likely to move more cautiously this time.
The BBC, October 21, 2002

ISRAEL WILL BE SENSITIVE TO WASHINGTON BEFORE RETALIATING
Interior Minister Eli Yishai said Tuesday that Israel would be sensitive to Washington's position when planning its response to Monday's lethal suicide attack near Hadera.
By Jalal Bana and Haim Shadmi, in Ha'aretz, October 23, 2002

MOSCOW AND BEIJING ARE THE KEY TO CONTROLLING NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS
When James Kelly, US undersecretary of state, flew to Asia last week for emergency talks about North Korea's nuclear weapons programme, it was not South Korea or Japan, Washington's strongest Asian allies, that he visited first.
Instead, Mr. Kelly started his tour in Beijing. Pakistan, suspected of supplying components for North Korea's uranium enrichment programme, is another country with close ties to Pyongyang that the US will be relying on to isolate the communist regime.
The Financial Times, October 22, 2002.

ANTI-AMERICAN COMPLICATIONS IN PAKISTAN
Anti-American demonstrations are on the rise in Pakistan adding to the pressure against General Musharraf. Recent elections show that Musharraf has not been able to master Pakistan's growing Islamic radicalism.
By the Economist, October 21, 2002.

--Additional Pakistani election analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Includes audio files of expert panel discussion of implications for Pakistan and neighboring countries as well as comprehensive links to related news articles.

THE NORTH KOREA-PAKISTAN CONNECTION
It has hardly been a secret that Pakistan has been offering nuclear weapons technology to North Korea in exchange for Korea’s missile technology. The real question is why the US never noticed.
By B. Raman in the Asia Times, October 22, 2002

TURKEY FACTOR MAY AFFECT THE US IN IRAQ
If the US does go to war with Iraq, US Airforce Bases in Turkey will play a critical role. That is why it is important to take into account Turkey’s reservations about destabilizing Saddam. The fact is that Turkey has reason to be more concerned about its own Kurdish population linking to Kurds in Iraq, than it does about Washington’s agenda.
By the Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 18, 2002

TOPPLING SADDAM WON’T BRING IRAQ DEMOCRACY
Before the US can even consider installing Democracies in Iraq, it will have to resolve the dispute between Iraq’s ethnic Kurds, Shiites and Sunni Muslims. Expect the American commitment to Iraq after a war to last for decades.
By Marina Ottaway, Amy Hawthorn, Dan Brumberg and Thomas Carothers, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 2002.

PRESSURING IRAQ
The Rand Corporation’s latest study on Iraq indicates that the Iraqis are no less hostile to the US today, than they were a decade or so ago. Despite that fact, a study of the last 12 years shows that applying coercion to Iraq in the past has generally resulted in Iraq has usually resulted in Iraq backing down and accepting a compromise solution.
By Daniel Byman, Matthew Waxman, The Rand Corporation, October 2002.

PUBLICIZING THE PRESIDENT’S NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
The US is one of the few countries that proclaims its national security strategy in public before actually implementing it. President Bush’s new national security strategy marks a radical shift from the past, and especially from the notions of the Clinton administration. The most radical component is the intention to take control of the Middle East and to propel it forcefully into the 21st Century, thereby eliminating a major refuge for terrorists. It is a daring gamble and it depends on other countries going along with the idea.
By John Lewis Gaddis in the November 5, 2002 issue of Foreign Affairs.

NATO’S FATE PLACED IN DOUBT BY IRAQ
The first casualty of a war with Iraq could well be NATO which was excluded from planning and discussion at the very beginning.
By Strobe Talbott, president of the Brookings Institution, in the November issue of Foreign Affairs.

SADDAM’S INTELLIGENCE
The major reason that US attempts to organize coup attempts against Saddam Hussein have failed in the past is that Saddam has one of the most effective security operations in the Middle East. No less than five intelligence agencies defend the president—mostly by spying on one another.
By Ibrahim al-Marashi in the Middle East Review of International Affairs, Fall issue, 2002. (Includes comprehensive bibliography)

HOW EFFECTIVE ARE BAGHDAD’S MISSILES?
If war comes, Iraq can be expected to resort to chemical and biological weapons, and its delivery vehicle of choice will be missiles. Iraq still has a few medium range rockets, and it has already experimented with warheads filled with anthrax, botulinum toxin and aflatoxin, and filled 50 other warheads with the mixed chemical agents sarin and cyclosarin. Baghdad may also have experimented with a deadly version of small pox. If backed into a corner,Saddam may try to exercise his options.
The International Institute of Strategic Studies, October 2002.

THE US AND SAUDI ARABIA: A TROUBLED MARRIAGE THAT IS DOOMED TO CONTINUE
Friction was already building between Saudi Arabia and Washington under the Clinton administration and George Bush’s campaign against Iraq has only worsened an already bad situation. Yet despite growing annoyance on both sides, the relation seems destined to continue simply because from both a Saudi and an American perspective there is simply no one else who can satisfy the other's needs.
By Joseph Pollack, in the fall issue of the Middle East Review of International Affairs.

SHOULD THE PRESS STAY HOME?
Everyone knows that Saddam manipulates the foreign press and that little that the small quantity of information that he does allow on the air from foreign correspondents in Baghdad usually borders on pro-Baghdad propaganda. If war does breaks out, it might make sense for CNN, Fox TV and the networks to stay home. Don’t count on it.
By Franklin Foer in the New Republic, October 28, 2002

AXIS OF ENVY
The US and Israel are equally resented throughout the Middle East. Success and a strong national identity is one explanation. The readiness of both countries to exercise power to achieve political goals is another that may be even closer to the truth.
By Joseph Joffe in the November 5 issue of Foreign Affair's.

EGYPT ARRESTS THE INTERNET
On Monday 14 October, the south Cairo Bab Al-Khalq appeals court affirmed a one-year prison sentence handed down on Al-Ahram Weekly's Webmaster, Shohdy Naguib, 40, by the Sayeda Zeinab misdemeanor's court in June. The decision was no surprise to Naguib, his lawyers or the Internet community in Egypt. Because the prison sentence was handed down for a "felony", which in Egypt requires that the defendant be physically present at the appeals session, the judge had no option but to uphold the prison sentence since Naguib did not attend.
On the other side of the planet, in Moscow, Naguib now dubbed "the first Arab Internet prisoner of conscience" was waiting for news of the expected ruling. His absence came as a disappointment for a group of lawyers, rights activists and intellectuals who were preparing an "impressive" defense argument for what they considered an opportunity to win the battle for Internet freedom in Egypt.
By Amir Howeidy in Al-Ahram, October 23, 2002