STRETCHED TOO THIN? Overextended and erratically equipped, the U.S. military begins to feel its limitations. The war has now killed 1,102 U.S. soldiers.

BEGINNING TO SHOW THE STRAIN
The U.S. has been forced to ask the British to dispatch troops to a high combat dangerous trouble spot south of Baghdad. The object is to free enough American soldiers to launch a new assault against Fallujah. In the meantime, U.S. supply troops are waiting for a court martial after refusing to participate in what they felt was a suicide mission. On a different front the U.S. Army is moving the 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment to Iraq. The regiment had been used to train forces before sending them into combat. That task will now be assigned to the National Guard. Finally, a secret study proposes drafting doctors in the Army in the event of a new medical emergency.
•BRITAIN WILL SEND TROOPS TO REPLACE U.S. G.I.s
(The Independent, October 18, 2004)

THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES' MILITARY BALANCE REPORTS THAT THE TERRORIST THREAT HAS INCREASED WITH THE WAR IN IRAQ
"With the military invasion and occupation of Iraq, the United States demonstrated its desire to change the political status quo in the Arab world to advance American strategic and political interests," says the Military Balance. "...the Iraq invasion was always likely in the short term to enhance jihadist recruitment and intensify Al-Qaeda's motivation to encourage and assist terrorist operations."About half of Al-Qaeda's 30 top leaders have been killed or captured since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, but about 20,000 militants who trained in camps in Afghanistan remain at large with varying levels of capability and motivation...( Daily Star, Lebanon, October 20, 2004)
•IISS PRESS QUESTIONS & ANSWERS ON THE MILITARY BALANCE (with Military Balance Editor, Christopher Langton and London-based defense correspondents--in streaming audio)
•IISS WEBSITE

•TOP U.S. COMMANDER WARNED THAT TROOP STRENGTH WAS TOO LOW TO SUSTAIN COMBAT
General Ricardo Sanchez wrote to the Pentagon last winter that supplies and troop strength was too low in Iraq to sustain combat. (Thomas Ricks, Washington Post, October 18, 2004)
•SECURITY POLICY WORKING GROUP HOSTS PANEL ON THE EFFECTS OF RECENT MILITARY OPERATIONS ON AMERICA ARMED FORCES
James Fallows, Lawrence Korb, and others participated in a 2-hour panel discussion in Washington on Tuesday, October 19. A broad assortment of briefing materials are available on line (click here >>> ).
Meeting details, click here >>>

•U.S. ARMY REASSIGNS TRAINING UNIT TO COMBAT
The 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment had been considered an essential part of training U.S. forces going into hot zones. Not any more. (Louis Sahagun, Los Angeles Times, october 17, 2004)

ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERS PLANS TO DRAFT DOCTORS IN THE EVENT OF A MEDICAL EMERGENCY
Specialized professionals are most likely to be the first candidates for a return to the draft. ( Robert Pear, New York Times, October 19, 2004)

•U.S. SUPPLY UNIT REFUSES "SUICIDE" MISSION
Jeremy Hudson, a reporter on the Jackson, Clarion-Ledger newspaper, broke the story after the wife of a reservist in the 343rd Supply Company telephoned him in a panic. The reservists had refused to go into a combat zone in trucks that lacked armor and were likely to break down. (Hudson discusses his information on PBS' NewsHour, October 18, 2004)
ARMY RELUCTANT TO COURT MARTIAL RESERVISTS
Ann Scott Tyson reports in the Christian Science Monitor that Army officials are cautious about punishing the reservists for fear of the reaction in other U.S. units. (CSM, October 18, 2004)
MANY U.S. G.I.s DISTRUST THE IRAQI TROOPS THEY HAVE BEEN TRAINING
The Daily Telegraph's Adrian Blomfield reports that most U.S. soldiers have little confidence that the Iraqi troops they have been training will be up to the job. (Adrian Blomfield, Daily Telegraph, October 18, 2004)
INSURGENCY TOOK U.S. MILITARY PLANNERS BY SURPRISE
Somewhat incredibly, U.S. military planners did not expect to face an insurgency after ousting Saddam. The New York Times begins a three-part series on the Pentagon's "catastrophic success" in Iraq. (Michael Gordon, New York Times, October 19, 2004)

Margaret Hassan was kidnapped on her way to work. No ransom has been demanded yet

KIDNAPPING OF CARE EXECUTIVE IN BAGHDAD MAY SPELL END OF HUMANITARIAN AID INVOLVEMENT
Margaret Hassan has dual British and Iraqi nationality, and has worked in in Iraq for more than 30 years. The fact that she was considered a target is being taken as a significant indication of changing attitudes in the insurgency. The BBC provides background, as well as a video of her in captivity. (BBC, October 19, 2004)

CIA RELEASES SELECTED NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES ON CHINA FROM 1948 THROUGH 1976
The estimates give a general idea of how the U.S. viewed China through the revolution with Mao, and up to and through the Vietnam War. (CIA, October 18, 2004)
•Index to specific NIEs
•NATIONAL SECURITY ARCHIVE DOCUMENTATION ON POLICIES TOWARDS CHINA FROM 1960 THROUGH 1998

CHINA'S GAD (General Armament Department)
Now that Hu is firmly in control, China is likely to accelerate its campaign to modernize its military punch. ( Dennis J. Blasko, Jamestown Foundation, October 14, 2004)
•China looks for energy security

CHINA'S SEARCH FOR NEW WEAPONS COULD WORSEN ALREADY SHAKY TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS, IF EUROPE DOES NOT CONSULT WITH WASHINGTON FIRST
America's alliance with its European allies has deteriorated to such an extent under the Bush administration, that some countries may decide to go ahead and drop the embargo on arms sales to China without consulting Washington first. That could have serious repercussions for Washington and Taiwan. (Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 12, 2004)

ARMENIA HURT BY RUSSIA CLOSING BORDERS WITH GEORGIA
Due in part to its war with Azerbaijan, Armenia is feeling economically isolated these days, and until recently it had counted on a route through Georgia to get its products to Russian markets. That route has been blocked by tensions between Moscow and Tiblisi. The result is likely to be increased economic pressure on Armenia, which is Moscow's most important ally in the Caucasus. (Emil Danielyan, Eurasianet.org, October 18, 2004)
•Armenia headed for increased instability
The International Crisis Group notes that with half its population below the poverty line, and few hopes for economic development, Armenia can expect increased political instability. Corruption and government inefficiency are not helping matters. (ICG, October 18, 2004)

BRITAIN RECALLS AMBASSADOR FOR PRIVATELY PROTESTING THE USE OF INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION OBTAINED BY TORTURE AND PASSED ON BY THE C.I.A.
Craig Murray, Britain's ambassador to Uzbekistan, felt that Britain was making a mistake to rely on information provided by the C.I.A., which had originally been obtained by Uzbek authorities after allegedly torturing local suspects. "We are selling our souls for dross," wrote Murray. Murray's criticisms were made in a private telegram to Whitehall, but the telegram was subsequently published in the Financial Times. The Guardian reprints reactions in London's leading newspapers. (Michael Portillo, The Guardian, October 17, 2004)
•Murray case reported in the Independent
•Murray on the BBC
•International Security Network

The Security Policy Working Group
William Hartung, Marcus Corbin, Winslow T. Wheeler,Lucy Webster