Robert L. Barry: Victory in Iraq could prove more costly than we realize James Jennings: Baghdad may be more rational than we expect Nigel Chamberlain: Europe doesn't like Saddam either, but would prefer diplomacy to war. John Schulz and Ehsan Ahrari: Toppling Saddam may have unintended consequences Husain Haqqani: Pakistan's elections were less than fully democratic THE GLOBAL BEAT'S INTERACTIVE REPORTS Nuclear Bunker busters AND Post-Moscow Disarmament

New York University

THE SEARCH FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON FOR LIMITED CONFLICTS
Mark Bromley and David Grahame report on the Pentagon's search for a nuclear "bunker buster"

THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL

Rose Gottmoeller:
an interactive assessment of nuclear disarmament after the Moscow Summit,

The Journalists' Essential Field Guide to Afghanistan
by Edward Girardet

click here

REPORTING ETHNICITY AND
OTHER DIVERSITY
ISSUES
by The European
Center for War,
Peace &
The News Media
click here

The bombing of a popular nightclub on the largely Hindu Indonesian island of Bali threatens to destabilize the world's largest Muslim country, and may provide conclusive proof of the spread of terrorism to Asia. For Background analysis, click here.

Franklin Roosevelt proclaimed that "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself." Lately, fear seems to be driving America into a war whose objectives still remain ill defined. As the debate in Congress and the Senate noted, Iran and North Korea are closer to having a nuclear weapon than Saddam Hussein, and U.S. intelligence has failed to come up with any conclusive links between Saddam and either al-Qaeda or 9/11. What Baghdad does have is access to a large chunk of the world's oil. By occupying Iraq, the US will not only end Saddam's regime, it will also have the option freezing out the Russians and French who have invested heavily in Iraqi oil fields, and it will be in a position to exert influence over much of the rest of the world's energy. Intentionally or not, the American occupation of Iraq is likely to turn the US into a defacto empire--if the rest of the world accepts that proposition.

MOST AMERICANS SEEM READY FOR WAR
The latest survey by the Pew Foundation and the Council on Foreign Relations indicate that a majority supports a war to rid Iraq of Saddam Hussein, and that most believe that Iraq was involved in 9/11 despite the fact that leading intelligence agencies including the CIA have failed to find any credible connection. The poll was carried out before President Bush's October 7 speech.

THE CIA'S LATEST ASSESSMENT OF WHAT IRAQ HAS
provides detailed maps of locations, quantities of chemical weapons, and specific violations of UN resolutions...plus photos of the weapons themselves

RUMSFELD MAY ACCELERATE THE ATTACK ON IRAQ
By relying on new technology and surgically striking at Iraq's leadership, the US could attack Iraq with far fewer troops than it used in the Gulf War.
The New York Times, October 13, 2002
New York Times: The US is already positioning forces for an attack

SUBSTITUTING TOMMY FRANKS FOR SADDAM HUSSEIN
Giving up on the Iraqi opposition movement, Washington now seems to be placing its hopes on a benevolent US military dictatorship in Iraq led by a US general who doesn't speak the language, has little knowledge of the customs or politics of the place, but who will do his best to emulate General Douglas MacArthur's remarkable efforts in postwar Japan.
By Julian Borger in the Guardian, October 12, 2002

The New York Times on the plan to substitute Franks for Saddam

THE RUSSIAN VIEW
As Russian analysts see it, Washington's concerns over weapons of mass destruction and Saddam's inhumanity are not to be taken seriously. Most analysts see an outright power grab for Middle Eastern oil. "...the main motive is the fight for resources, for high-quality, inexpensive, middle-eastern Iraqi (in this case) oil. Iraq possesses up to a fourth of world oil reserves compared with 2.5 percent in the United States, which consumes around a fourth of the liquid fuel produced in the world..."
By Andrey Stepanovich in Trud under rubric "The World Today": "Awaiting H Hour: Political Scientists Argue About Goals and Consequences of a US Strike on Iraq", from the Center for Defense Information, October 8, 2002

THE ARAB VIEW: IRAQ IS NOT THE REAL TARGET
Interviewed in Al-Ahram, Mohamad Heikal, one of Egypt's leading political analysts, argues that Washington is really maneuvering for to have the upper hand over future competitors such as China and Russia.

THE CRITICAL VIEW: A MISLEADING MESSAGE
Most intelligence analysts--including the CIA's George Tenet--do not really see Saddam as an immediate threat unless he is backed in a corner. That hasn't stopped George Bush from painting the Iraqi dictator as the greatest menace the US currently faces in the world today. By David Corn in The Nation, October 9, 2002

THE CIA BELIEVES THAT IRAQ WILL TRY TO USE UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES TO DROP CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL AGENTS ON ISRAEL

Intelligence agencies, including the CIA, report that Iraqis have been experimenting with unmanned versions of a Czech training jet which can disperse chemical or biological weapons. The main target in a confrontation is likely to be Israel.
By Center for Defense Information, October 10, 2002

US NEWS EXECUTIVES SCRAMBLING FOR WAR ACCESS
Despite increasing pressure from news executives, Washington appears determined to exclude American journalists from the front lines or any direct contact with what is actually happening.
By Neil Dodd, in EPN-Reporter.com, October 9, 2002

THE PENTAGON’S MERCENARIES
If the U.S. goes to war with Iraq, it will turn much of the preparatory work over to private companies who can carry out the dirty work without directly implicating Washington. They are essentially soldiers for hire who are beyond the reach of the Universal Code of Military Justice.
By Leslie Wayne in the New York Times, October 13, 2002

AMERICA AN EMPIRE IN SPITE OF ITSELF
Fareed Zakaria in last week's New Yorker, expounds on why America calls the shots, whether it really wants to or not. Zakaria takes issue with Robert Kagan's thesis in "Strength and Weakness." The American abandonment of multilateralism has nothing to do with American strength, notes Zakaria. In fact, America was relatively stronger when it helped found the U.N. and other international organizations. George Bush's obsession with going it alone is much closer to a pre-global, puritanical strain in American politics which distrusts entanglements with foreigners. Abandoning the good works of the last half century carries a heavy price though. "The belief that America is different is its ultimate source of strength," notes Zakaria. "If we mobilize all our awesome powers and lose this one, we will have hegemony—but will it be worth having?"
By Fareed Zakaria in the New Yorker

THE BALI NIGHTCLUB BOMBING
Indonesia may be the world’s largest Islamic country, but 95% of Bali’s 3 million population are Balinesian Hindus. 90% of the province’s income comes from tourism which attracts nearly a third of the 5 million tourists who visit Indonesia yearly. Bali has frequently been the target of Indonesian Muslims in the past. The current threat to the island’s economy risks stirring Hindu vigilantism against the island’s tiny Muslim minority. The group most likely to profit immediately from the attack is the Indonesian Army which has been under growing pressure to extricate itself from local politics, but still sees itself as the sole protector of Indonesia’s peaceful equilibrium.
By Bill guerin in the Asia Times, October 15, 2002
BALI NIGHTCLUB BLAST--U.S. AMBASSADOR WARNED OF DANGER A MONTH EARLIER
After repeated threats of a terrorist action, the US closed its embassy for a week. The Indonesians preferred to ignore the warnings. Not any longer.
By Matthew Moore in the Sydney (Australia) Morning Herald, October 13, 2002

BALI IS NOT THE ONLY INDONESIAN TROUBLE SPOT
In a prescient report, the International Crisis Group observes that at least part of the recent penchant for violence stems from the military’s predatory stranglehold over the local economy and politics. Better local police and more locally responsive administrations are starting points, but transferring power to the local level is also likely to increase competition between the police and military both for power and bribes, and that could increase the violence until the situation stabilizes.
The International Crisis Group, October 2002

RUSSIAN MILITARY AND CHECHEN POLICE COLLABORATE ON OIL SMUGGLING
Half a million tons of oil are extracted illegally from Chechnya every year, processed in micro-refineries known as "samovars," and shipped in long truck convoys across the border with what the Chechens charge is the collusion of Russian military commanders and local pro-Moscow police.
By Umatt Dudayev, Institute for War & Peace Reporting, October 10, 2002

MORE INFORMATION ON US CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WARFARE EXPERIMENTS ON US PERSONNEL
In the 1960s the US government tested chemical and biological weapons on its own personnel in a Pentagon exercise known as Project 112. The tests were carried out in Britain, Canada and the U.S. A Navy component was codenamed SHAD for "Shipboard Hazard and Defense." New information on the testing is gradually being released. For a press conference on the latest reports click here.

The Pentagon's version of the Reports

Veteran’s Administration SHAD page

Missionaries and marines: Bush, Blair and democratization
by Anatol Levin
"...The real ‘line’ of the Bush administration on Iraq is ‘regime change’. A compliant not democratic Iraq is its objective, the aim being to secure a compliant Middle East. Now, in its rhetoric, the administration is calling for democracy in Iraq, and Bush academics are calling for, and explaining the US strategy in terms of, a desire to bring democracy to the entire Arab world. This is a stroke of malign brilliance. It is unbelievable to those who study what is actually happening. Nonetheless, it may prove highly influential in the US because of the way in which rigid, ideological paradigms dominate the public discussion here... " A series of articles exploring the similarities between Washington's current aspirations and Britain's experience of Empire.
In Open Democracy.Net
Click here

SENATOR ROBERT BYRD'S DISSENT ON IRAQ
 "The great Roman historian, Titus Livius, said, " All things will be clear and distinct to the man who does not hurry; haste is blind and improvident."
 "Blind and improvident," Mr. President. "Blind and improvident."  Congress would be wise to heed those words today, for as sure as the sun rises in the east, we are embarking on a course of action with regard to Iraq that, in its haste, is both blind and improvident.  We are rushing into war without fully discussing why, without thoroughly considering the consequences, or without making any attempt to explore what steps we might take to avert conflict.
 The newly bellicose mood that permeates this White House is unfortunate, all the more so because it is clearly motivated by campaign politics.  Republicans are already running attack ads against Democrats on Iraq.  Democrats favor fast approval of a resolution so they can change the subject to domestic economic problems.  (NY Times 9/20/2002)
 Before risking the lives of American troops, all members of Congress – Democrats and Republicans alike – must overcome the siren song of political polls and focus strictly on the merits, not the politics, of this most serious issue.
 The resolution before us today is not only a product of haste; it is also a product of presidential hubris.  This resolution is breathtaking in its scope.  It redefines the nature of defense, and reinterprets the Constitution to suit the will of the Executive Branch. It would give the President blanket authority to launch a unilateral preemptive attack on a sovereign nation that is perceived to be a threat to the United States.  This is an unprecedented and unfounded interpretation of the President's authority under the Constitution,  not to mention the fact that it stands the charter of the United Nations on its head.
By Senator Robert Byrd (Democrat, West Virginia)

To read the full text, click here

Check out Zoned for Debate
NYU's Webforum on current issues in journalism

Click here, or on the image of the Zoned for Debate web page

Need information, but having trouble with a broken link? Send an e-mail to wtd2@nyu.edu
or click here
We may be able to help

For quick access to the Global Beat, set your bookmark to:
http://globalbeat.org

NYU FIRST
09/11 8:48AM: Documenting America's Greatest Tragedy
click here