LINCREASING THE PRESSURE IN IRAQ Iraqi clerics mourn a militia fighter killed during the latest American offensives. Insurgent car bombs and kidnappings have paralyzed development efforts, while U.S. airstrikes are polarizing emotions in urban areas.

Charles Duelfer, head of the ISG

THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE IRAQ SURVEY GROUP REPORT
The conclusion that Saddam did not have weapons of mass destruction when the U.S. invaded Iraq ranks as one of the greatest intelligence failures in American history. Saddam undoubtedly wanted to resume his weapons program in the future, but for nearly a decade he had lacked the capacity to do so, largely because of the sanctions program against him. The BBC analyzes the implications. (BBC, October 7, 2004)
•Washington Post:The report is only the latest of several indications that the administration had it wrong
•DUELFER'S TESTIMONY TO CONGRESS
•ISG KEY FINDINGS
• REPORT VOLUME 1
• REPORT VOLUME 2
• REPORT VOLUME 3

THREE EXPLOSIONS HIT HOTELS IN EGYPT FILLED WITH ISRAELI TOURSISTS
Israelis had been warned a month earlier about possible attacks in Egypt. 10 floors of the Taba Hilton hotel collapsed. Israel rushed earth moving equipment to the site. Haaretz reports (October 8, 2004)
•BBC Reports

A FISTFUL OF CONTRACTORS: THE CASE FOR A PRAGMATIC ASSESSMENT OF PRIVATE MILITARY COMPANIES IN IRAQ
The British American Security Information Council's David Isenberg takes a comprehensive look at the Private Military Companies operating in Iraq. The foreign security personnel working for PMCs may be as few as 6,000, since PMCs hire a large number of Iraqis, but a growing concern is the tendancy of PMCs to siphon off highly trained Special Forces personnel who are lured by high salaries. Another concern is political influence. In 2001, the ten leading private military firms spent more than $32m on lobbying, while they invested more than $12m in political campaign donations. Among the leading donors were Halliburton, which gave more than $700,000 (during 1999-2002), 95 percent to Republicans, and DynCorp, which gave more than $500,000, 72 percent to Republicans. (David Isenberg, BASIC, September 2004)

THE U.S. NOW FACES MULTIPLE INSURGENCIES
Juan Cole, writing in Informed Comment, notes that the U.S. is now fighting on four fronts in Iraq. The insurgents include Neo-Baathists, radical Islamist factions, foreign terrorists and the Mahdist insurgency of Moqtada al-Sadr. Bombing urban areas may be creating more insurgents than it is killing. What no one in Washington has thought to ask is what the insurgents are really after. (Juan Cole, Informed Comment, October 5, 2004)
•Jim Krane, AP, on identifying the insurgencies
•Ahmed Hashim on why the insurgency won't go away (Boston Review, October-November, 2004)
•Juan Cole on the danger of all out urban warfare
If Shiite leader Ali Sistani loses faith in the upcoming elections, he has the power to call a nation-wide uprising against the U.S. occupation.

A SUNNI-SHIITE HIGH COMMAND?
Patrick Seale notes in the Beirut Daily Star that in the eyes of many people in the Middle East, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is beginning to merge with the U.S. occupation in Iraq. The result is to draw Hizbollah, Hamas, the Islamic Jihad and Iran into informal alliances that cut across the Sunni-Shiite divide. The result could be a formidable alliance directed against the United States--the exact opposite of the neo-con analysis. (Patrick Seale, The Daily Star, October 5, 2004)

AL QAEDA'S SHIFTING LEADERSHIP
Al Qaeda's leadership used to be largely Arab, but a new generation includes a growing number of young Pakistani radicals who are attracted to the movement by its readiness to take on the West. Owais Towhid reports from Karachi.(Christian Science Monitor, October 5, 2004)

L.PAUL BREMER ADMITS THAT THE U.S. NEVER HAD SUFFICIENT TROOPS TO DO THE JOB IN IRAQ
Bremer told a conference of insurance agents that Baghdad was already in chaos by the time he arrived.
"We paid a big price for not stopping it because it established an atmosphere of lawlessness," Bremer said. "We never had enough troops on the ground." (Thomas Ricks, Robin Wright, The Washington Post, October 5, 2004).
•Excerpts of Bremer's remarks in the Insurance Journal

BREMER'S ADMINISTRATION WAS A MESS AS WELL
According to Iraq Revenue Watch, the Coalition Provisional Authority audits exposed serious flaws in the U.S. oversight of Iraq's revenues and U.S. reconstruction funds. At least 74% of $1.5 billion awarded in contracts by the CPA was funneled into U.S. companies. Iraqi companies only managed to get 2% of the contracts financed by Iraqi funds. (Iraq Revenue Watch, September 2004).

BOOMTIME FOR WAR
The defense industry was in the dumps. Afghanistan didn't help much. Then the administration declared war on Iraq, and the profits soared. Total gains on the Amex Defense Index since March 2003 are above 80 percent. Even if you'd put your money in at the beginning, in September 2001, you'd be up over 50 percent. Suppose that back in 2001 you'd had unlimited access to bank credit. And suppose you'd also had the certain knowledge that George W. Bush would take out Saddam Hussein, come what may. Well then you, too, could have made billions over the past three years. And if you were the Carlyle Group, to which ex-President George H.W. Bush then served as a senior advisor? In that case, you did very well indeed. (James K. Galbraith, Salon, September 30, 2004)

ADMINISTRATION CUTS VETERANS BENEFITS STAFF
More than 26,000 of the 166,334 veterans who have left the military after fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan have filed for medical help. Less than 2/3rds of the claims have been processed, and there is now a backlog of 300,000 claims. Despite the overload and the fact that the military expects to expand, the administration is planning to make deeper cuts in the Veterans Administration. As a result, some 9,700 wounded veterans are still waiting to receive benefits. The bottom line: it doesn't pay to get wounded in Iraq.
(Josh White, Washington Post, October 3, 2004)

WAS THE INTIFADA A MISTAKE?
In an unusually frank interview with the Jordanian newspaper, Al-Rai, the Palestinian Authority's former prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), points out that the Intifada failed in nearly all of its objectives. He adds that during the 16 days of talks with President Clinton at Camp David, there never was a clearly defined peace plan. (Mahmoud Abbas, Al-Rais (via MEMRI), October 5, 2004)

WHO IS ACTUALLY RUNNING THE WEST BANK NOW?
As the Palestinian Authority continues to disintegrate a bewildering array of militia groups, hopeful politicians and other players have attempted to step into the breech, further complicating the situation. The International Crisis Group analyzes the factors in a self-perpetuating crisis. (ICG, September 28, 2004)

HAMAS' LEADERSHIP INCREASINGLY CONTRADICTORY
Israeli pressure on Palestinian refugee camps has divided Hamas leaders over the best strategy to follow. As result some leaders are becoming more aggressive, while others are trying to briefly curtail rocket attacks against Israel. The only thing that seems certain about the current confusion is that once the Israeli attacks have stopped, Hamas will emerge as the dominant force among Palestinians in the camp. (Haaretz, October 4, 2004)

THE AIR FORCE GETS READY FOR WAR IN OUTER SPACE
The U.S. Air Force has defined its first doctrine for extraterrestrial warfare. The Center for Defense Information explains what is at stake. (CDI, October 4, 2004)
•Counterspace Operations (AFDD 2-2.1) in pdf format

SCIENTISTS AND THE NUCLEAR THRESHHOLD
George W. Bush is not the first president to increase the risk of a nuclear war. The critical element in the past has been the readiness of scientists to organize themselves, and to make the public aware of the danger. (Peter J. Kuznick in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November-December 2004)

BREAKING UP GEORGIA
There is increasingly outspoken support in Moscow for formally recognizing the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia. (Igor Torbakov, Eurasianet.org, october 4, 2004)

IS RUSSIA DYING?
The life expectancy for men has decreased by six years since 1965. Now Russia is trying to deal with AIDS. (Michael Spectre, The New Yorker, October 4, 2004)

CONOCO'S $2 BILLION GAMBLE ON RUSSIA'S YUKOS
The move confirms the attractiveness of the Russian oil sector despite political and operational risks. It also points to a new, two-stage strategy for foreign involvement in Russian oil against a background of political sensitivity to foreign ownership: the acquisition of a minor stake in a Russian major, establishing a launch pad for investment in new fields through joint ventures that promise a greater share of production and control. (Economist Intelligence Unit Viewswire, October 1, 2004)

HU JINTAO MOVES TO CONSOLIDATE CONTROL OVER THE ARMY
The speed with which Hu moved to take over the military has some experts looking for a harder line on U.S. relations and Taiwan. (Willy Lam, the Jamestown Foundation, September 30, 2004)
• Why Taiwan still matters to Beijing